Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Several months ago President Francois Bozize called for France and regional African nations to help the Central African Republic (CAR) from the advancing forces of Seleka. After the fall of the capital Bangui to the rebel Seleka movement, then clearly Bozize couldn’t muster powerful international forces to stem the tide. Therefore, the next few weeks will be very important for the CAR.

Bozize had hoped to entice the government of France to step in and help but clearly the French government is more concerned about Mali. Also, the government of France is involved in both political and military areas related to supporting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the central government of Syria. This reality meant that Bozize had little hope of obtaining the support of France.

Francois Hollande of France stated that “If we have a presence, it’s not to protect a regime, it’s to protect our nationals and our interests and in no way to intervene in the internal business of a country, in this case the Central African Republic…Those days are over.”

Of course Hollande is being very disingenuous because France recently bombed Libya under the former leader of this nation. Likewise, the French army and covert operatives are now involved in Mali and while France claims that its military forces will pull out soon – then much depends on the recent attacks in Mali by Islamists and other entanglements which may develop. Similarly, Hollande is clearly anti-Syrian government and it is known that certain channels from France have been working with elements within the FSA. Therefore, the CAR was not high on the priority list of France and Bozize must have known this before being forced out of power.

It is reported that around 5,000 Seleka troops entered the capital Bangui and today this movement is consolidating its powerbase. The rebel leader Michel Djotodia stated that the CAR would now go through a period of political transition until “credible and transparent” national elections can be held. During the interim period he will “legislate by degree” in order to stabilize the situation.

He stated that “I consider it necessary to suspend the November 27, 2004 constitution, to dissolve parliament as well as the government…During this transition period which will lead us to free, credible and transparent elections, I will legislate by decree…We will lead the people of Central African Republic during a three-year transition period, in accordance with the Libreville Accord.”

It is still unknown how South Africa will respond to Michel Djotobia because currently it is known that 13 South African soldiers were killed while trying to support and guide government troops. Much also depends on quelling discontent within Bangui and how Seleka troops behave. After all, with so many other issues like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and other major issues – then clearly African nations are becoming overstretched. Nigeria, a military powerhouse in Africa, also faces a major Islamist revolt in parts of this country.

The African Union responded to the events by imposing sanctions against the Seleka rebels and suspending the CAR. However, if regional nations have no intention of becoming embroiled in military clashes with Seleka then sooner or later the African Union will need to change its tune. Yet for now, it is too soon to say which way the pendulum will swing because you have too many possible outcomes.

Also, if chaos engulfs the capital and other areas of the CAR then this will put enormous strains on regional nations. Therefore, it is essential for Michel Djotobia and other leaders within Seleka to stem the tide of looting in the capital and to return Bangui to normality. After this, the internal and external bargaining must begin in earnest because this nation is already blighted by poverty therefore the people deserve “real hope” and not petty squabbling.

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Joachim de Villiers and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

In a major development for the people of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) it was announced that major regional African nations have signed a much needed accord which was brokered by the United Nations (UN). It is hoped that all regional nations will abide by all the conditions laid down in the accord because in the past too many nations had a plethora of self interests in the DRC. Therefore, if regional nations remain faithful to the accord, it is sincerely hoped that genuine economic developments will take place whereby the abundant resources are used to the full.

Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary General, witnessed the signing in the capital of Ethiopia. He stated that he hoped that this would generate “an era of peace and stability.” However, in a more cautionary note Ban Ki-moon stated that “It is only the beginning of a comprehensive approach that will require sustained engagement.”

Of course, the UN General Secretary is right to issue a cautionary note because sadly you have had many false dawns in the DRC. Also, the regional dynamics of the region means that many players can easily exploit and destabilize vast areas of this nation based on a multitude of different factors. In saying that, it is clear that regional nations are working much more together in many parts of Central, Eastern, Northern and Western Africa. This notably applies to Mali and Somalia, but also includes several other nations, alongside the new accord signed in Ethiopia which is related to the DRC.

Since the March 23 rebel movement took up military arms against the government based in Kinshasa, it was more than apparent that they were well organized and structured. This reality led to accusations which were pinned at certain regional nations by the UN. These nations categorically denied all wrong doing and irrespective of the reality on the ground – and the covert links which enabled March 23 to take districts within Eastern DRC – the accord would appear to imply that all regional powers are now on board.

Since May 2012, when the March 23 rebel group emerged rapidly, vast numbers of people fled and became displaced. According to figures given this applies to approximately 800,000 people. Not surprisingly, this created a new burden on the DRC and agencies which are trying to help this nation. After all, despite the vast natural resources of the DRC, it is clear that vast numbers of people suffer from poverty related issues.

The signed agreement by eleven nations which are connected to the Great Lakes region may even establish a special military contingent in order to prevent future destabilization. This applies to a UN intervention brigade in the volatile region of Eastern DRC. Alongside the military angle it is hoped that economic and political developments will also follow.

Of course, many individuals and organizations are still skeptical about future developments. Thierry Vircoulon from the International Crisis Group commented that the “The African Union does not possess the necessary military capabilities to deploy a force in eastern DR Congo in the short term because it is already overwhelmed by the crises in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Mali.”

Developments have moved on since Thierry Vircoulon made this statement but he clearly raises valid points. Yet clearly Uganda wants regional stability therefore this nation continues to play an active role throughout the region. Likewise, a lot of pressure was put on Rwanda and this was followed by negative press. However, instead of focusing on “the past” and “the real reality” behind the March 23 movement; it is hoped that the new accord will pave the way for greater stability in the DRC.

It is essential that the international community and all regional African nations work together because the people of the DRC have suffered enough.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21563949 

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Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The armed forces of Chad lost 13 soldiers while fighting Islamist militants in northern Mali. It is known that 65 Islamists were killed in the intense fighting and this once more underlies the importance of African nations in their fight to quell the chaos in Mali. France immediately was the engine which led the military offensive against Islamists in Mali but the influence of various African nations is a growing factor on the ground.

From the outset the French-led military attack made rapid gains because the vast majority of Islamists just fled in the full knowledge that open-warfare wasn’t in their interest. Yet, like suspected, a gradual campaign based on guerilla tactics is happening in parts of Mali. This reality means that France should think heavily before pulling out its military forces.

The destabilization of Libya by America, France, many Gulf nations, and the United Kingdom; meant that a mixture of Islamist forces, regional militias, and mercenaries, all had a vested interest in destroying the power of Gaddafi. However, by destroying a functioning state despite all the shortcomings in Libya under Gaddafi, this reality led to many internal convulsions within Libya. This in turn spread to other regional nations because many forces entered the vacuum which was created. Now a vast area is awash with military arms, an array of Islamist factions, weak central forces, powerful regional dynamics, and on top of this you have genuine ethnic issues alongside outside meddling which is based on ill intentions.

It would be a calamity if France pulled it troops out of Mali too quickly because this nation alongside other powerful players in America, the United Kingdom and several nations in the Gulf are to blame for the severity of the crisis in Mali. This applies to powerful forces unleashed in Libya after the overthrow of Gaddafi. Similarly, the recent hostage crisis in Algeria emanated from the Libyan angle. Mali itself also faced internal problems related to political, ethnic and cultural issues prior to the Islamist onslaught. However, regional events meant that Islamists filled the vacuum because of major regional instability, the easy access to military hardware and because of the alleged involvement of nations based in the Gulf region.

Indeed, France should also look deeply “in the mirror” because it is clear that Qatar and Turkey which are in the anti-Syrian alliance do not want anything to do with France in Mali. Rumors also abound about the underhanded and murky policies of Qatar with regards to Islamist factions and indoctrination in northern Mali. Therefore, the armed forces of Chad, France, Nigeria, Syria, and other nations, are all fighting against various different Islamist factions which seek to impose a brutal reign of terror based on Salafist militancy. This reality should make France turn away from its path against Syria because just like the latest brutal terrorist attack in Damascus, it is clear that Islamist terrorism and sectarian indoctrination is the enemy of the people of Mali and Syria respectively.

The armed forces of Chad deployed their troops totaling 1,800 soldiers in Kidal which is in northern Mali. Kidal was the last major stronghold to fall to the French led military offensive. Therefore, the armed forces of Chad are on the frontline in the “war against terrorism.” Also, the Ifoghas highlands which are located to the north of Kidal have become a place of retreat for many Islamists. Given this reality, it is clear that the armed forces of Chad will face many dangers because they need to flush out Islamist havens before they regroup and launch counter-attacks based on guerilla tactics.

It is short-sighted of France to start to withdraw its military forces because the Islamist insurgency isn’t crushed because of geographic factors and regional dynamics. Nobody for certain knows if the situation will be contained – or if Islamist forces will launch major fresh attacks. This uncertainty means that it is too soon for France to pull out because internal issues in Mali are complex even without the Islamist angle. Therefore, various African nations and France need to work closely together in order to restore order to northern Mali and in focusing on the internal political situation in this nation.

France 24 comments that “France sent in troops on January 11 to help the Malian army oust Islamist militants who last year captured the desert north of the country. Since then, thousands of soldiers from African countries have also deployed and France plans to start withdrawing its troops next month.”

“The French-led forces met little resistance during the initial offensive that drove the Islamists from the main northern centers of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu.”

“Now however, they are facing a guerrilla campaign that includes sudden raids, suicide attacks and land mines.”

France should also focus on the role of Qatar within the murky dealings of this nation and likewise political elites in Paris should disengage with the many rat lines against secular Syria. After all, it is abundantly clear that various Islamist factions are growing in power because international jihadists from many nations keep on entering this nation. This is all being supported by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, and alongside the terrorist rat lines you have enormous indoctrination going on. Also, just like in Mali, many Islamic charities are not what they appear because often they are “indoctrinating centers.” Similarly, many refugee camps housing Syrian nationals are also being manipulated by many dark forces in order to spread sectarianism and sedition against the government of Syria.

In another article by France 24 it was stated that “The first accusations of Qatari involvement with Tuareg separatists and Islamist groups came in a June 2012 article in respected French weekly the Canard Enchainé.”

“In a piece titled “Our friend Qatar is financing Mali’s Islamists,” the newspaper alleged that the oil-rich Gulf state was financing the separatists.”

“It quoted an unnamed source in French military intelligence saying: “The MNLA [secular Tuareg separatists], al Qaeda-linked Ansar Dine and MUJAO [movement for unity and Jihad in West Africa] have all received cash from Doha.”

The article further states that “A month later Sadou Diallo, the mayor of the north Malian city of Gao [which had fallen to the Islamists] told RTL radio: “The French government knows perfectly well who is supporting these terrorists. Qatar, for example, continues to send so-called aid and food every day to the airports of Gao and Timbuktu.”

In Tunisia the secular leader Chokri Belaid was recently assassinated and clearly Islamists hope to change the dynamics of Tunisian society. Likewise, sectarian and Islamist forces in Syria desire to crush the rich mosaic of this nation. Therefore, it is high time for France to turn away from the feudal monarchies of the Gulf which are involved in sectarian and Islamist funding. After all, it is pointless for French soldiers to fight alongside various African nations in Mali if their own government is siding with Islamist forces in Syria – or supporting other forces which will weaken Syria and open up the way for Islamization based on sectarianism.

Similarly, now is not the time for France to disengage in Mali because the recent deaths of many soldiers from Chad highlights that the crisis is still in its infancy. This reality means that France must work together with all regional African nations which are supporting the people of Mali during this very difficult period. Likewise, France should turn away from undermining secular Syria because the region needs stability and for the mosaic of Syria to survive – just like the mosaic of Mali needs to survive the threat of Islamist militancy.

http://www.france24.com/en/20130121-qatar-mali-france-ansar-dine-mnla-al-qaeda-sunni-islam-doha

http://www.france24.com/en/20130223-northern-mali-clashes-chad-soldiers-islamist-rebels-killed

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21555898

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Walter Sebastian and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Multinational forces in Mali led by France are currently bombarding Islamist forces in several parts of this country. Meanwhile, the United Nations (UN) is deeply troubled by the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) alongside other areas of instability in this nation. Therefore, major plans are under way in both nations whereby central powers are to be supported by outside nations, in order to lay the foundations for greater stability in the DRC and Mali.

Of course, the events happening in the DRC and Mali are very different but weak central states and internal inefficient military forces mean that only outside nations can prevent further chaos, providing it is backed by a genuine political angle in both nations. Likewise, many African nations are in Somalia in order to contain the Islamist al-Shabaab (al-Shabab) threat. Also, the Central African Republic (CAR) is another hotspot whereby regional powers are needed because of the weakness of the central state and tensions exist between Sudan and South Sudan.

It is too early to say if international forces can contain the various issues related to instability in the DRC and Mali. After all, the events in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya are firm examples of failed states after outside nations meddled within the internal political arena. However, on the plus side is that regional nations are on board when it comes to Mali. Similarly, since M23 rebels took several parts of the DRC it is clear that regional nations have lumped together in order to try to contain the situation. Yet, unlike Mali, you have disagreements between several regional powers and the UN over who is funding the M23 rebels in the DRC.

Another major issue for regional nations which promise to support an intervention force in the DRC is how will this be funded, will the new entity be fully equipped militarily and how long will it take to come to fruition? Likewise, you clearly have tensions with the current political leaders of the DRC and Rwanda because both nations have accused the other of arming various rebel factions. Alongside this, many regional powers are involved in Somalia and clearly some nations could become overstretched.

In Mali it currently appears that the military intervention led by France is building up a powerful momentum because Islamist forces have either been repulsed in many areas or they have melted away. Of course, it is too early to say if counter-attacks by small Islamist bands will emerge. Also, the vast size of Mali and the uncontrollable border regions mean that events could still transpire negatively in the future. However, unlike the DRC, it is clear that one major power is interested in trying to resolve the crisis and this can be seen by the number of French troops being deployed in Mali.

France clearly wants regional African nations to send troops to Mali in order to crush Islamists in the north of this nation. Nigeria and many other nations have promised to support Mali but it takes time because of issues related to logistics and many other important areas. However, one major headache for France, Nigeria and other nations involved in Mali, is the weakness of the internal political arena and elements in the north do have genuine political concerns based on the ethnic angle.

Barbara Plett, UN correspondent for the BBC, confirms about the DRC that eight regional presidents are set to sign a UN accord related to stability throughout the region. From the standpoint of the UN it is instrumental to have an intervention force to deal with the crisis in the DRC. The seriousness of the crisis in underlined by the fact that a reported 800,000 people have become displaced since the M23 rebels began their military advance.

Barbara Plett states that “The M23 rebels say they want to improve living conditions for the people of eastern DR Congo, but the UN says they are supported by Rwanda, which has been heavily involved in its eastern neighbor since those responsible for the country’s genocide fled there en masse in 1994.”

Further down she states that “Alongside this rapid reaction force, said a UN official, a broad political plan to bring stability to the region is set to be signed on the side-lines of the AU summit in Addis Ababa by the leaders of the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, the Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville), Tanzania and South Africa.”

Thierry Vircoulon, International Crisis Group, and many others remain skeptical because clearly you have tensions between the DRC, Rwanda and Uganda. On top of this, many other regional issues are extremely problematic. Therefore, Thierry Vircoulon comments that “The African Union does not possess the necessary military capabilities to deploy a force in eastern DR Congo in the short term because it is already overwhelmed by the crises in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Mali.”

However, it is clear that the UN is extremely alarmed by events in the DRC and Mali therefore the regional angle would become potent if it helped to bring these nations on board. In Mali, for example, it is clear that Islamists have destroyed indigenous African Islamic Sufi shrines and other places of religious and historical significance. Alongside this, the introduction of Islamic Sharia law is clearly troubling the people of Mali which fear the Talibanization of society. Therefore, France and regional nations needed to step in once Islamist factions threatened to move deeper into the country.

Despite this, France and other nations should look deeply into their policies in Libya because clearly the destabilization of this nation is unhinging many regional nations. Likewise, the recent terrorist attack in Algeria had a major Libya angle with regards to military arms, training and other factors. Untold numbers were killed in Libya and many massacres took place against pro-Gaddafi forces. This reality means that Libya remains shattered by the meddling of outside nations and the convulsions of this reality continues to shake modern day Libya and other nations like Mali.

Events in Mali are still in the early stages and nobody yet knows the knock-on-effect to regional nations. Similarly, the political and military angle to the DRC is still in its infancy and it remains to be seen how the M23 rebels will take to outside meddling if you have no genuine political agenda. However, leaving both nations to fend for themselves isn’t a viable option given the past reality of the DRC and the destruction of indigenous Islam in Mali. Therefore, it is essential that the international community supports regional nations which are willing to help given the seriousness of both the DRC and Mali.

http://www.france24.com/en/20120819-congo-rebels-neutral-force-drc-rwanda-m23-uganda-great-lakes-kivu

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21208401

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Olivier LeCourt and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The Central African Republic (CAR) is currently witnessing another power vacuum but this time President Francois Bozize is just clinging onto power because of the rapid advancement of rebel forces. He is still hoping that Chad will come to the rescue once more but while help is on its way, it isn’t what he expected. This would seem to imply that political maneuvers are going on within regional powers like Chad.

It is known that rebel forces have halted their military campaign in the short-term despite the capital Bangui being in reaching touch. Recently rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) took over large swathes of land much like the rapid advancement of rebel forces in the CAR. Obviously these rebels had been supported but regional and international power mechanisms halted their military gains. However, the situation remains cloudy in the DRC and in a sense the same applies to the current crisis in the CAR.

The BBC reports that the Seleka rebels in the CAR will partake in important peace talks with the leaders of this nation. Obviously, on the ground the Seleka rebels have faced little resistance from government troops which appear unmotivated. Despite this, the leadership of the rebel movement fully understands that it can’t rebuff the wishes of regional nations which could alter the situation on the ground. Therefore, the rebels have agreed to halt their attack against Bangui and hold talks.

Bozize appealed directly to France and America to intervene but both nations have kept their distance. In saying that, France may be meddling through several third parties even if this nation will not come to the assistance of Bozize directly.

The President of France, Francois Hollande, commented that “If we have a presence, it’s not to protect a regime, it’s to protect our nationals and our interests and in no way to intervene in the internal business of a country, in this case the Central African Republic…Those days are over.”

Several days ago Gabon sent 120 troops and it is reported that Cameroon will do the same in the short-term. Congo also promised to send a contingent to the CAR and it would appear that Chad will boost their numbers on the ground. Already in the CAR you have the Central African Multinational Force (FOMAC) which was sent to this nation in 2008 in order to restore order. This reality appears to provide Bozize with a safety net in the short-term because FOMAC issued a statement which warned the rebels to go no further.

General Jean-Felix Akaga, FOMAC commander, stated categorically that “We will not give up Damara.” Damara is less that 50km from the capital of the CAR and clearly FOMAC must have been given orders to release this statement by regional nations.

Eric Massi, a spokesperson for Seleka, told Reuters that “I have asked our forces not to move their positions starting today because we want to enter talks in Libreville (Capital of Gabon) for a political solution.”

It is known that Bozize is hoping for a national unity government but the Seleka rebels have short changed his ambitions. Currently the crisis is at a very delicate stage and Chad and other nations will be sending feelers to Seleka. Therefore, Bozize is currently holding onto power but clearly he doesn’t have a military to back up his demands or to even contain the rebels. Given this reality, then his survival is already in the hands of outside nations.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

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Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

President Francois Bozize of the Central African Republic (CAR) is calling for help from France alongside regional support from Chad in order to stem the advance of rebels. Yet currently it appears that France is ignoring Bozize. At the same time, the military contingent from Chad which entered the CAR seems limited but this could change depending on the deteriorating situation and if outside pressure is put on this nation to do more.

The rebels are threatening to launch a military offensive against Bangui which is the capital of this nation unless Bozize enters serious talks. While the situation is very different in the CAR, Democratic Republic of Congo and Mali, it is clear that rebel movements can threaten the nation state very quickly. This chaos is creating fresh regional tensions and highlighting the weakness of the centralized state within all the above mentioned nations.

America has taken precautionary measures by evacuating its embassy. After the events in Libya where several American personnel were killed, then clearly the Obama government doesn’t want to be caught out again. Obviously the situation is very different between Libya and the CAR but the speed of events is causing alarm.

In the early period the rebels quickly took towns like Ouadda, Ndele and Sam Ouandja. However, the seriousness of the crisis became known when Bria was taken easily. This area is known for diamond mining. Since the initial period the rebels have now advanced onto Bambari which is the third most powerful city in the CAR.

The seriousness of the crisis means that the African Union (AU) head will arrive in the CAR in order to try to iron out some form of dialogue between Bozize and the rebels. Bozize, clearly unnerved by the situation, is now reported to be open to talks with the rebels. Yet, given the “changing sands” on the ground and the current lack of response internationally, then it may be that the rebels feel emboldened by such inaction.

Thomas Boni Yayi according to the AU will discuss many important points and somehow try to bring both parties together in order to negotiate. The rebels are collectively known under the name of Seleka and one of their main pre-conditions is that Bozize is open to political dialogue. Apparently, both sides will meet despite no timetable being set in stone.

Rebel forces have now entered Sibut and once more the forces of Bozize appear to either be invisible or they are uninterested in challenging the current rebel advance. Clearly the situation is confusing and the morale of forces under Bozize appears to be wafer thin. This in itself shows that his hand is very weak without outside forces propping him up under the current prevailing conditions.

Government forces may be digging in around Damara which is approximately 75km from the capital of the CAR. Yet it would appear that the fate of Bozize rests with Chad. In this sense, it may well be that Chad is seeking talks with the rebels in order to fully understand their political motives in the long-term.

Bozize is known to have appealed to “our French cousins” and asked America “to help us to push back the rebels.” Yet, while France is involving itself in the destabilization of Syria just like this nation helped to overthrow the former leader of Libya; it appears that France is intent on staying on the sidelines in the CAR.

Francois Hollande, the President of France, stated that “If we have a presence, it’s not to protect a regime, it’s to protect our nationals and our interests and in no way to intervene in the internal business of a country, in this case the Central African Republic…Those days are over.”

Of course, Hollande is stating this while supporting the destabilization of Syria therefore very little honesty coming from his words. Yet, when it comes to the CAR it may well be true. Therefore, it appears that Chad is the last hope for Bozize because government troops seem brittle without having any nation to back them up.

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Joachim de Villiers and Pierre Leblanc

Modern Tokyo Times

The Central African Republic (CAR) is facing a new threat from rebels which have taken several towns, including Ouadda, Ndele and Sam Ouandja. However, it was the capture of Bria which seems to have triggered an urgent response from President Bozize of the CAR. It appears that Bozize once more embarked on support from Chad, in order to repulse the rebels which are increasingly disillusioned with his rule.

In Bria you have a military base and this town is also known for diamond mining. This reality means that Bozize is fearful of the speed of events because the armed forces of the CAR couldn’t contain the latest advance. Therefore, his special relationship with Chad is coming into play once more. After all, this isn’t the first time that Chad had to step-in.

Sadly, nations like the CAR and the Democratic Republic of Congo are blessed with rich resources but income disparity is enormous in both nations. Not surprisingly, this leads to discontent and outside players often try to manipulate events on the ground. Of course, some nations also are helping to maintain stability therefore each crisis needs to be studied on a case-by-case basis.

Seleka rebels merged from three different factions in order to challenge the status quo in the CAR. The speed of their advance despite the deaths of so few government soldiers is clear evidence that government forces lack morale and conviction. Indeed, some reports indicate that government troops may have also ransacked shops because of their economic reality and having little confidence in Bozize. In this sense, it is clear that the CAR is at the mercy of bigger players like France and Chad.

A spokesperson for the government of the CAR told Reuters that “We couldn’t stand there doing nothing in front of this rebel advance…The president contacted his counterpart in Chad, who immediately agreed to help us put a quick end to this adventure.”

Several peace agreements were signed between 2007 and 2011. Yet despite Bozize having the opportunity to solve the simmering issues with the various rebel groups, it is clear that he squandered this opportunity. Seleka therefore believe that they have been pushed into a corner and because of this they have launched a military attack against government forces. Despite this, Seleka is fully aware about the reality of France and Chad with regards to the internal affairs of the CAR.

Meanwhile, the people of the CAR continue to suffer from poverty despite this nation being blessed with important mineral resources. It remains to be seen if Chad will lose patience with Bozize and the same can be said about France.

Lee Jay Walker gave guidance to both main writers

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Joachim de Villiers and Pierre Leblanc

Modern Tokyo Times

The situation in Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) is very confusing despite reports that the M23 rebels will pull out. It is clear by statements given that regional pressure appears to have weighed heavily on the leadership of M23. However, despite this the current picture remains cloudy because you have reports of fighting in other areas not so far away from Goma.

Colonel Antoine Manzi apparently gave assurances that M23 rebels would abide by the wishes of regional nations, which met at the weekend to discuss the crisis. Likewise, Sultani Makenga, a military commander within M23, also notified powerful individuals within Uganda that the rebel movement would pull out of Goma and Sake despite appearing to be in full military control.

Currently it is clear that M23 is listening to regional nations because of several important factors. Yet if the demands of Jean-Marie Runiga and the M23 movement are ignored by the DR Congo leader, then the ongoing political dialogue may hit a stumbling block which unravels quickly. It is incumbent on President Joseph Kabila of the DR Congo to at least meet the M23 leaders, in order to discuss the many complex issues which are creating so many tensions within this nation.

It is known that plans are underway whereby a regional military force will be sent to Goma airport, which will represent the government of DR Congo by stealth. Yet it is clear that Uganda and other nations like Rwanda have internal and international issues to deal with. Uganda and Rwanda have also denied accusations by the United Nations (UN) which blamed these nations for supporting the M23 rebel movement.

The UN commented that Sultani Makenga and Bosco Ntaganda “receive direct military orders from RDF (Rwandan army) Chief of Defense staff General Charles Kayonga, who in turn acts on instructions from Minister of Defense General James Kabarebe.”

It was also stated by findings from the UN that Bosco Ntaganda and Sultani Makenga are instrumental within the M23 rebel movement. Yet Uganda and Rwanda refute these accusations to the full and clearly both nations appear to be using their leverages in order to calm the current crisis. Much remains shrouded in mystery because the response of the M23 political leadership does hint towards a controlled leadership which listens to major regional powers. Similarly, the military angle appears well structured within the M23 rebel movement. Therefore, some major “third force” is backing them from a distance irrespective if the motives remain shrouded in mystery.

Rwanda is also concerned about rebel Hutu forces which can easily move between the DR Congo and Rwanda. Recent political events would point in the favor of Uganda which is trying to put pressure on the M23 rebels. Uganda is also deeply concerned about other important regional issues like the delicate situation between South Sudan and Sudan – and chaos within Somalia.

It is hoped that the DR Congo will receive international and regional support because past wars in this country have killed millions of people. Therefore, while it is clear that the international community often responds to events in the Balkans, the Middle East and North Africa – it is essential that the same applies to black Africa. Likewise, the UN, which often does little to rebuke nations like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey which are supporting the destabilization of Syria; it would be nice if they talked seriously with regional powers like Uganda before creating a new crisis based on lack of trust.

Lee Jay Walker gave guidance to both main writers of this article

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Joachim de Villiers and Jay Doggett

Modern Tokyo Times

Rebel fighters from M23 have entered many parts of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The resource-rich nation appears to be teetering on the verge of fresh chaos because little is known about the real objectives of this “shadowy force.” After all, the speed and rise of this force which was created on April 4, 2012, appears to be rather rapid.

The United Nations (UN) proportioned blame on both Uganda and Rwanda for supporting the M23 rebels but both nations claim that they are not involved in the arming of this rebel movement. According to the UN Security Council’s Group of Experts it was stated that “Both Rwanda and Uganda have been supporting M23.”

“While Rwandan officials coordinated the creation of the rebel movement as well as its major military operations, Uganda’s more subtle support to M23 allowed the rebel group’s political branch to operate from within Kampala and boost its external relations.”

The UN findings also commented that Bosco Ntaganda controls the M23 rebels on the ground while Sultani Makenga is the unifier in the area of operations and liaison with other armed groups, which oppose central forces in the DR Congo. These two individuals are the backbone of the M23 rebel movement and according to the UN both individuals are working with Rwanda and Uganda.

It is alleged by the UN that Makenga and Ntaganda “receive direct military orders from RDF (Rwandan army) Chief of Defense staff General Charles Kayonga, who in turn acts on instructions from Minister of Defense General James Kabarebe.”

Rwanda and Uganda are adamant that the UN findings are false and both nations point the finger at ulterior motives within the so-called panel of experts. Of course, the truth of the matter will eventually be made clearer in the future because obviously “a third force” must be involved somewhere. After all, the M23 rebels have now entered Goma and this reality is highlighting their growing confidence in this part of the DR Congo. Also, their fighting prowess when tested by the Congolese army was more than a match.

The past brutal war which witnessed the involvement of several regional powers was responsible for the deaths of millions of people. Massacres were committed by all sides and people fled in all directions. Despite the rich resources of this nation so many people suffer from poverty and a very bleak future because of the negative power dynamics of the DR Congo.

Currently, the forces of the UN remain at Goma airport unlike government troops which have reportedly fled. News coming out of Goma remains patchy because little is known about the true nature of events on the ground and if government forces will launch a counter offensive. Likewise, the international community is currently focused on events in Syria and the current crisis between Israel and Gaza. Therefore, while vast numbers of people are fleeing once more in the DR Congo, the media attention and many humanitarian networks appear to be focused on other issues.

Colonel Vianney Kazarama, spokesman for M23, told Reuters that “The town of Goma fell at 11:33 local time [08.33GMT], despite the attack helicopters, despite the heavy weapons, the FARDC [Congolese army] has let the town fall into our hands.”

Lambert Mende, spokesman for the Congolese government, commented that “Goma is in the process of being occupied by Rwanda…We have people who saw the Rwandan army traverse our frontier at the Nyamuragira volcano. They have occupied the airport and they are shooting inside the town. Our army is trying to riposte but this poses an enormous problem for them — this is an urban center where hundreds of thousands of people live.”

Uganda and Rwanda reject the findings of the UN and comments made by some European nations which have accused both nations. Indeed, Uganda is now blaming the UN for the current crisis in Goma.

Asuman Kiyingi, Junior Foreign Affairs Minister for Uganda told Reuters that “Uganda was mediating in this conflict … and we had managed to restrain M23.”

“Then the U.N. comes up with these wild and baseless allegations against us and we decided to step aside and leave the situation to them and now you see the results.”

Irrespective of the “third force” behind the M23 rebels it is clear that the DR Congo faces many internal upheavals. It is essential that the international community doesn’t neglect its duty to this nation because of so many failures in the past. Also, given the importance of nations like Uganda which is fighting against international terrorism in Somalia; then it would be wise to converse more with regional powers before creating “a real dilemma,” which isn’t in the interest of the people of the DR Congo.

Lee Jay Walker provided important information to both main writers of this article

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

International Crisis Group

(Image source:digital Congo)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

After four years of electoral inertia and in a stalled democratic process, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is preparing its second set of democratic elections in a hurry and on a rolling calendar. Opposition parties are trying to unite, thus far without success, and the international community is not in charge, as in effect it was the first time, in 2006. The Congolese authorities face a dilemma: respect the constitutional deadline and organise botched elections, or ignore that deadline and slide into a situation of unconstitutional power. In both cases, the government’s legitimacy would be seriously questioned. The only way out of this Catch-22 situation is to both speed up preparations and negotiate a contingency electoral calendar and political agreement to manage an almost certainly necessary transition period. More attention must also be paid to putting in place essential measures for transparency and inclusiveness, as well as a security system that will ultimately require important UN help. If these steps are not taken, foreign partners should disengage lest they lend undeserved credibility to a fundamentally flawed process.

Instead of signalling consolidation of democracy, the coming elections present at best a logistical problem and at worst a new cause of destabilisation for a country that has still not recovered from the long wars that marked the end of the Mobutu era and its denouement. President Joseph Kabila’s ruling party has already launched its campaign, even before the official start of the electoral season, while the opposition is trying to find its “champion” for the presidential contest. More than logistical difficulties give reason for concern. At the start of the year, a constitutional review removed the presidential election’s run-off round, making it a single winner-takes-all round to the incumbent’s benefit, other electoral law changes favouring the ruling party may happen soon, as the draft bill is still being discussed. Within what is a general climate of insecurity, intimidation of Kabila’s opponents has already become apparent. Despite last-minute integration of some armed groups into the Congolese army, insecurity is still rife in the Kivus, while unexplained security incidents, including an attempted coup, have occurred in the west.

Technical preparations are lagging. Neither the new electoral law, the voters list, nor the budget are ready. Set up a year late, the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) is in a race against time. Registration is already controversial, funding of the electoral cycle is incomplete, and the electoral calendar published on 30 March, though it partially respects constitutional deadlines, is problematic.

The international community’s role is far more limited than in 2006, when it organised, financed and secured all aspects of the elections. However, it still provides 40 per cent of the funding, gives technical assistance and maintains about 17,000 UN troops in country. Given the risks of electoral illegitimacy, bias and violence, it should not stay in the background but instead make clear to the Congolese politicians that a postponed election would be better than a botched one.

The international community, including through the UN Security Council and an inclusive donors forum, should make clear the need for the Congolese authorities to include essential measures in the electoral system and apply the same standards as in 2006. In this respect, stepped-up political engagement is required, and new Special Envoys for the U.S., France and EU should be appointed; the Special Representative of the Secretary-General of the United Nations (SRSG) has an equally significant role to play. In order not to become trapped in a biased process that could all too easily become as violent as that which Côte d’Ivoire recently experienced, technical and financial assistance should be contingent on constant and precise monitoring of the freedom to campaign, respect for political pluralism, political violence, access to state media, dialogue with the Congolese authorities and state funding for the NIEC, as well as the opportunity for civil society groups to do their own monitoring of the process.

Congolese politicians and the international community should anticipate now the very real possibility that the 5 December constitutional deadline cannot be met. Negotiating a transition agreement with the opposition, setting a new deadline for organising the elections and limiting the business of government to routine matters during the transition would not yet guarantee a free and fair election, but it would avoid having a likely unconstitutional postponement of the elections become a crisis of legitimacy.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To the Congolese Government:

1.  Administer an oath of neutrality to all civil servants and respect it.

2.  Release funding for the NIEC immediately.

3.  Pay the police.

To the majority and the opposition:

4.  Negotiate a new electoral calendar for the likely contingency that postponement of the elections cannot be avoided and a transition agreement that sets a new deadline for the elections and provides that government would limit itself to routine business during the transition.

5.  Sign in a public ceremony an electoral code that emphasises respect of political freedoms, bans hate speech and stresses the obligation to challenge electoral results by legal channels only and that there will be no retaliation against defeated candidates and their supporters.

6.  Create a committee composed of representatives of political parties, civil society organisations, embassies and the UN mission in the DRC that will monitor and report on adherence to the code of conduct.

7.  Create an inter-party committee to maintain dialogue during the electoral process.

To the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC):

8.  Ensure the transparency of the electoral process and the NIEC’s accountability by:

a) publishing the voters list on the internet and in the constituencies, auditing it and making the challenge procedure public;

b) ensuring freedom of access for international observers, civil society and party representatives to the registration centres, the polling stations and the counting centres;

c) displaying the results after counting in the voting stations and on the internet;

d) creating a permanent consultation committee for the NIEC and the political parties;

e) punishing acts of corruption systematically;

f) accepting a financial audit by a competent foreign company after the elections; and

g) establishing a standard method for those who want to challenge the results, extending the time within which such challenges can be made and publishing the results by voting stations.

To Parliament:

9.  Ensure the inclusiveness of the electoral process by:

a) giving the vote to the diaspora;

b) limiting the deposit for candidates to an amount not exceeding twice the required bond in 2006 and making the bond redeemable for candidates who receive more than 10 per cent of the vote;

c) establishing no new criteria for presidential candidates; and

d) making compulsory the publication of electoral campaign funding.

To civil society:

10.  Monitor the entire electoral process and increase citizens’ involvement by:

a) organising provincial civil society platforms;

b) setting up a civil society counting centre; and

c) conducting civic education campaigns before the vote and a subsequent satisfaction survey of voters, with the technical and financial support of foreign partners.

To the international community, in particular the UN, the African Union, the European Union and the countries funding the electoral process:

11.  Make clear to the Congolese authorities that essential measures to ensure transparency and inclusiveness must be implemented and that if this is not done, they will disengage from the electoral process.

12.  Support technically and financially a civic education campaign and political party training.

13.  Assess the electoral process by:

a) sending long-term election observation missions;

b) taking part in the code of conduct monitoring committee;

c) auditing the UNDP-managed basket fund after the elections; and

d) appointing special envoys for the Great Lakes region.

14.  Reinforce the UN role in the electoral process and support electoral security by:

a) giving a clear mandate to the UN mission in the DRC to play a good offices role in event of pre- and post-election challenges. To do so, a team of experts in electoral monitoring should assist the SRSG and be deployed in the UN mission offices across the country;

b) giving a clear mandate to the UN mission in the DRC to provide early warning on electoral tensions and to plan security scenarios;

c) increasing the training of the Congolese police personnel in crowd management; and

d) deploying UN troops to the western part of the country.

Kinshasa/Nairobi/Brussels

International Crisis Group

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http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/175-congo-the-electoral-dilemma.aspx

Africa Report N°175 5

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Source of photo: Digital Congo