Boutros Hussein and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The government of Ethiopia is unfazed by psychological games being played by President Mohammed Mursi (Morsi) of Egypt over the Nile. Ethiopia is currently in the process of constructing a viable hydroelectric dam in order to provide essential power. Therefore, Ethiopia caught Egypt on the hop last month when this nation began to divert the Blue Nile while providing information to Sudan about construction developments.

Ethiopia clearly needs to modernize the infrastructure of this nation in order to lift many people out of poverty and to support many areas of the economy. The Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is also a sign of growing confidence within the body politic of Ethiopia. Mursi therefore should be very careful when he states that “all options are open.” After all, it is easy for events to spiral out of control and it doesn’t help a very complex region.

Mursi did comment that he wasn’t “calling for war” but then further complicated issues by also making it clear that Egypt could not afford to sit idly by while Ethiopia threatened to control the water flow. Clearly, the worry is that with Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood coming under greater scrutiny at home; then he may decide to play the nationalist card. Therefore, events remain unstable because a slippery slope may occur whereby tensions continue to increase.

Mursi stated that “Egypt’s water security cannot be violated at all…As president of the state I confirm to you that all options are open…If Egypt is the Nile’s gift, then the Nile is a gift to Egypt.”

“The lives of the Egyptians are connected around it… as one great people. If it diminishes by one drop then our blood is the alternative.”

Mursi clearly wants to maintain a colonial ruling which denies Ethiopia the right to control its own water. Obviously, no nation can be held back by the past when it is clear that Ethiopia wasn’t responsible for the ruling which favored Egypt and Sudan in the first place. In saying that, it is also incumbent on Ethiopia to be sensitive to the needs of other nations which rely greatly on the water resources emanating from this country. Ethiopia is therefore stipulating that the interrupted flow will only take place for a set period during the building of this important dam.

Tedros Adhanom, the Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, replied by stating  that “Ethiopia cannot remain poor….It must utilize its resources to lift its people out of poverty.”

Also, other upstream nations are disillusioned by the shenanigans of a past colonial agreement which violates their respective rights to exploit the water that they are blessed with. Egypt should be careful because regional powers like Uganda would not standby and allow Cairo to bully the region. After all, just like events between Sudan and South Sudan; it is clear that regional black African states are not interested in “a colonial Arab straightjacket.”

Sudan which is beset by many internal issues appears to be on board because this nation understands that Ethiopia isn’t threatening regional stability. This in itself further isolates Egypt because Sudan is a major downstream nation.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/73769/Egypt/Politics-/Ethiopia-dismisses-Egyptian-psychological-warfare-.aspx

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Hiroshi Saito and Joachim de Villiers

Modern Tokyo Times

The government of Japan is to expand its mission in the role of peacekeeping in South Sudan. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also thinking about not only expanding the territory covered by the Ground Self-Defense Force (GSDF) but also the number of personnel on the ground, Therefore, the mission from June will apply to the entire state of Central Equatoria and in adjacent neighborhoods in Equatoria.

This comes at a time of frayed relations between the Khartoum government of Sudan and the South Sudan government based in Juba. Currently, you have approximately 350 troops from the GSDF in South Sudan. The core of their work is focused on infrastructure development therefore many of the serving GSDF are engineers.

GSDF troops entered South Sudan in 2011 and despite initial concerns related to the delicate relationship between Sudan and South Sudan; the GSDF continues to do valuable work. Many of the GSDF are engineers and clearly their expertise is most welcome in South Sudan.

Japanese engineering units in past UN peacekeeping operations have worked distinctively in order to help the respective host nations. Valuable experience gained from Cambodia, East Timor and Haiti means that Japan’s involvement is most welcome in South Sudan. Also, given the economic clout of Japan and its global standing; then South Sudan was more than pleased when Japan decided to provide support to the newly created nation state way back in 2011.

In a past article by Modern Tokyo Times it was stated that “In the past the Khartoum Arab-Islamic dominated regime was responsible for millions of Africans being killed in southern Sudan. At the same time, the brutal Khartoum regime turned against African Muslims in Darfur.  The leadership in South Sudan is greatly influenced by the binding force of Christianity but all southern Sudanese are pulling together in political circles irrespective of religion. Animism also remains strong in South Sudan and this new nation state is multi-religious and multi-ethnic.”

Sadly, while it appeared that political elites in Khartoum and Juba had resolved many long standing issues in order to prevent open hostility. It once more appears that relations are going pear shaped. At the same time, it is clear that both nation states have major internal issues related to poverty, religious issues, ethnic tensions and corruption within the body politic of Sudan and South Sudan.

Tensions are once more on the rise between Sudan and South Sudan. The BBC reports that the “Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has threatened to close “forever” an oil pipeline that carries oil from South Sudan to Sudan’s Red Sea coast.”

President Omar al-Bashir also stated that “I now give our brothers in South Sudan a last, last warning that we will shut down the oil pipeline forever if they give any support to the traitors in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile.”

The Information Minister of South Sudan, Barnaba Marial Benjamin, countered by making it clear that the President of South Sudan “has said several times that we don’t support any rebels in Sudan….We agreed that there is a new environment of dialogue, we don’t want to go back to square one….There are channels to discuss this, we don’t think that you should go on a public forum and say all these things.” 

The government of Japan certainly needs to remain vigilant while at the same time helping the people of South Sudan.

Lee Jay Walker provided guidance to both main writers

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22680858

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Boutros Hussein and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

In the United Kingdom it is clear that nobody is concerned about converts to Buddhism and Hinduism being involved in killing people in the name of God, Gods or the Buddha. Indeed, within the Islamic faith it is clear that the Alawites, Alevi, Ahmadiyya, Shia, and a plethora of other sects, are not involved in inciting religious hatred in the United Kingdom. The same also obviously applies to mainstream Sunni Muslim religious leaders. However, you have a problem within radical Sunni Islamic circles which deem all and sundry to be infidels. After all, in Syria several Sunni Muslim clerics have been killed by Sunni jihadists because they didn’t follow their draconian version of Islam.

Turning to the security agencies of the United Kingdom then it appears that too many are very naive and that some members are ignoring certain laws which are meant to protect British nationals. Michael Adebolajo, a religious fanatic, was held by the Kenyan police near the border with Somalia because he tried to join the al-Shabaab. Yet, instead of having a system which imprisons British nationals who go abroad to kill in the name of Islam; it appears that the United Kingdom welcomes them back with open arms by flaunting the 2006 Terrorism Act providing the circumstances fit. Not only this, but MI5 deems this to be a great opportunity to obtain a possible informer whereby they will pay tax payers money on a person who supports mass hatred.

Now, if you don’t understand the mindset of al-Shabaab this is all and well. However, clearly the security services of the United Kingdom and the political elites do. Therefore, despite the al-Shabaab in Somalia killing every convert to Christianity that they can find and destroying Sufi Islamic shrines; it appears to matter little. The al-Shabaab not only behead Muslim converts to Christianity while praising Allah but they also support stoning women to death and chopping hands off for minor crimes. This reality is being glossed over too much and the same applies to Islamist nations which have good relations with the British government.

For example, in Saudi Arabia not one single non-Muslim holy place is allowed. Apostates from Islam to Christianity or other non-Muslim faiths face the death penalty in this country. The same applies to other nations which implement Islamic Sharia law to the full. It appears absurd that in the modern world that you still have some nations which support killing non-Muslim men for the act of marrying a Muslim female. However, in several Islamist states the act of love between a non-Muslim male and Muslim female is deemed unethical according to Islamic Sharia law and punishable by death. Of course, in many majority Muslim nations this doesn’t apply because of cultural factors, different political systems and based on different thought patterns within the Islamic world. Despite this, it is clear that the British government is allowing extremist nations, organizations, Islamist charities and other Islamist groups to spread their hatred within the United Kingdom. This is detrimental to all British nationals irrespective of faith but clearly these “Islamist taps” are not being switched off.

It must be stated that even within the prison system of the United Kingdom that many moderate Muslims and non-Muslims have been converted to radical Sunni Islam inside the institutions of this country. If Islamist militancy can thrive so openly within universities and prison services then clearly something is amiss. Likewise, it is ironic that the Christian faith is thriving in Nigeria despite the threat of Islamist militancy in northern Nigeria; but in the United Kingdom the indigenous faith is in clear decline and this vacuum is being filled on the fringes by Islamists. Without a shadow of a doubt both individuals involved in the murder of the innocent British soldier would still be outside the clutches of Islamic militancy – if they (or their parents) had never entered the United Kingdom. If this isn’t a sad indictment of what is happening in Britain then what is?

It is also ironic that Prime Minister David Cameron, the Foreign Minister William Hague and one of the killers of the innocent British soldier Lee Rigby all share one common theme. They all support anti-Syrian government forces which are involved in many beheadings, terrorist acts, killing Alawites, persecuting Christians, killing Sunni Muslim clerics which support the government and other brutal acts of barbarity. Therefore, David Cameron and William Hague are focused on supporting the dark forces of terrorism and sectarianism at government level against the government of Syria. Meanwhile one of the Islamists involved in the brutal murder of Lee Rigby was canvassing on the streets of England to fight against the Syrian government.

Of course, the two Islamists involved in the sickening murder of Lee Rigby reside in a world which is far from reality. Likewise, the majority of the media coverage about Syria resides in a distorted world therefore this will have suited their warped minds. After all, in Syria it is abundantly clear that militant Sunni Islamists are beheading, persecuting and destroying the fabric of Syrian society. Despite this, the term “rebels” and other nice labels are spread around the media. At the same time, countless brutal massacres by the side which the British government supports in Syria are usually overlooked – or the articles manipulate darker angles – or provide anti-Syrian government coverage on the same page in order to dilute.

The two individuals involved in the brutal murder of Lee Rigby clearly have been brainwashed. After all, every day Muslims are killing Muslims in many nations and this currently applies to Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and others. Ahmadiyya Muslims for example are persecuted in Indonesia and Pakistan by fellow Muslims but they are not persecuted by the British government. Likewise, many Shia are slaughtered in several nations by Sunni Islamist militants and currently Sufi shrines are threatened by Sunni Islamist militants in Libya, Mali and Somalia. Therefore, the two brainwashed Islamists clearly reside in cloud cuckoo land but this didn’t stop the security agencies in the UK from being interested in employing one of the fanatics.

In Syria before outside nations supported sectarianism, terrorism and sedition against the government and people of this nation; the “light of Islam” was felt warmly in this country. This applies to the various different Christian sects which have a plethora of churches and institutions throughout this land. Likewise, in Lebanon and Syria you will find many Armenians because their ancestors fled the brutality of the 1915 genocide committed by the Turks. Many Armenians found new homes within mainly Muslim Syria and multi-confessional Lebanon. In more recent times, vast numbers of Christians have fled Iraq because of terrorism and once more Jordan and Syria opened their doors based on humanity. However, today you have al-Qaeda, Islamist sectarians, America, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Kingdom all on the same side against secular Syria. Therefore, the “light of Levant Islam” is now being threatened by the meddling of outside nations. This reality means that the UK and other governments are enabling Islamists to spread their dangerous tentacles. At the same time, many Islamists have left the United Kingdom in order to kill mainstream Muslims and Christians in Syria.

The madness of the political elites is even confirmed by the Home Secretary. In the Daily Telegraph it reports that “Prevent was set up under the Labour government in 2005 after the London bombings of July 7. After the last general election, Theresa May, the Home Secretary, commissioned a review because she regarded it as highly flawed, and was critical of the higher education sector’s “complacency” in dealing with the Islamists on campus. She later admitted that Prevent had handed taxpayers’ money to hard-line Muslim groups that promote extremist views.”

“One senior counter-terrorism source said: “Would a university allow someone to speak on campus if they were advocating the best way to be a paedophile or an armed robber? No, they would not. But they allow speakers who advocate terrorism.”

Sadly, it appears that in the United Kingdom that anything is possible because elites are in denial mode. Therefore, is anyone surprised that MI5 and successive British governments have got it wrong? The same can be said about supporting various terrorist groups in Syria which have even trained children to behead captured Syrian soldiers. Given this reality, the barbarity of what happened to Lee Rigby is a common feature of what is happening to anyone deemed to be pro-Syrian government in Syria. It is time to switch the “Islamist terrorist clock off” wherever it is because this brutal mindset hates all and sundry – irrespective if they butcher Muslims, Christians and people of other faiths and no faith.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/editors-choice/editors-picks/10080958/Woolwich-attack-soldiers-killer-in-dock-on-terror-link-three-years-ago.html

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Walter Sebastian and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Multinational forces in Mali led by France are currently bombarding Islamist forces in several parts of this country. Meanwhile, the United Nations (UN) is deeply troubled by the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) alongside other areas of instability in this nation. Therefore, major plans are under way in both nations whereby central powers are to be supported by outside nations, in order to lay the foundations for greater stability in the DRC and Mali.

Of course, the events happening in the DRC and Mali are very different but weak central states and internal inefficient military forces mean that only outside nations can prevent further chaos, providing it is backed by a genuine political angle in both nations. Likewise, many African nations are in Somalia in order to contain the Islamist al-Shabaab (al-Shabab) threat. Also, the Central African Republic (CAR) is another hotspot whereby regional powers are needed because of the weakness of the central state and tensions exist between Sudan and South Sudan.

It is too early to say if international forces can contain the various issues related to instability in the DRC and Mali. After all, the events in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya are firm examples of failed states after outside nations meddled within the internal political arena. However, on the plus side is that regional nations are on board when it comes to Mali. Similarly, since M23 rebels took several parts of the DRC it is clear that regional nations have lumped together in order to try to contain the situation. Yet, unlike Mali, you have disagreements between several regional powers and the UN over who is funding the M23 rebels in the DRC.

Another major issue for regional nations which promise to support an intervention force in the DRC is how will this be funded, will the new entity be fully equipped militarily and how long will it take to come to fruition? Likewise, you clearly have tensions with the current political leaders of the DRC and Rwanda because both nations have accused the other of arming various rebel factions. Alongside this, many regional powers are involved in Somalia and clearly some nations could become overstretched.

In Mali it currently appears that the military intervention led by France is building up a powerful momentum because Islamist forces have either been repulsed in many areas or they have melted away. Of course, it is too early to say if counter-attacks by small Islamist bands will emerge. Also, the vast size of Mali and the uncontrollable border regions mean that events could still transpire negatively in the future. However, unlike the DRC, it is clear that one major power is interested in trying to resolve the crisis and this can be seen by the number of French troops being deployed in Mali.

France clearly wants regional African nations to send troops to Mali in order to crush Islamists in the north of this nation. Nigeria and many other nations have promised to support Mali but it takes time because of issues related to logistics and many other important areas. However, one major headache for France, Nigeria and other nations involved in Mali, is the weakness of the internal political arena and elements in the north do have genuine political concerns based on the ethnic angle.

Barbara Plett, UN correspondent for the BBC, confirms about the DRC that eight regional presidents are set to sign a UN accord related to stability throughout the region. From the standpoint of the UN it is instrumental to have an intervention force to deal with the crisis in the DRC. The seriousness of the crisis in underlined by the fact that a reported 800,000 people have become displaced since the M23 rebels began their military advance.

Barbara Plett states that “The M23 rebels say they want to improve living conditions for the people of eastern DR Congo, but the UN says they are supported by Rwanda, which has been heavily involved in its eastern neighbor since those responsible for the country’s genocide fled there en masse in 1994.”

Further down she states that “Alongside this rapid reaction force, said a UN official, a broad political plan to bring stability to the region is set to be signed on the side-lines of the AU summit in Addis Ababa by the leaders of the DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Angola, the Republic of Congo (Congo-Brazzaville), Tanzania and South Africa.”

Thierry Vircoulon, International Crisis Group, and many others remain skeptical because clearly you have tensions between the DRC, Rwanda and Uganda. On top of this, many other regional issues are extremely problematic. Therefore, Thierry Vircoulon comments that “The African Union does not possess the necessary military capabilities to deploy a force in eastern DR Congo in the short term because it is already overwhelmed by the crises in Somalia, the Central African Republic and Mali.”

However, it is clear that the UN is extremely alarmed by events in the DRC and Mali therefore the regional angle would become potent if it helped to bring these nations on board. In Mali, for example, it is clear that Islamists have destroyed indigenous African Islamic Sufi shrines and other places of religious and historical significance. Alongside this, the introduction of Islamic Sharia law is clearly troubling the people of Mali which fear the Talibanization of society. Therefore, France and regional nations needed to step in once Islamist factions threatened to move deeper into the country.

Despite this, France and other nations should look deeply into their policies in Libya because clearly the destabilization of this nation is unhinging many regional nations. Likewise, the recent terrorist attack in Algeria had a major Libya angle with regards to military arms, training and other factors. Untold numbers were killed in Libya and many massacres took place against pro-Gaddafi forces. This reality means that Libya remains shattered by the meddling of outside nations and the convulsions of this reality continues to shake modern day Libya and other nations like Mali.

Events in Mali are still in the early stages and nobody yet knows the knock-on-effect to regional nations. Similarly, the political and military angle to the DRC is still in its infancy and it remains to be seen how the M23 rebels will take to outside meddling if you have no genuine political agenda. However, leaving both nations to fend for themselves isn’t a viable option given the past reality of the DRC and the destruction of indigenous Islam in Mali. Therefore, it is essential that the international community supports regional nations which are willing to help given the seriousness of both the DRC and Mali.

http://www.france24.com/en/20120819-congo-rebels-neutral-force-drc-rwanda-m23-uganda-great-lakes-kivu

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-21208401

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Jibril Khoury and Walter Sebastian

Modern Tokyo Times

The long awaited assault by forces from the African Union (AMISOM) and Somali Nation Army (SNA) against the Islamist al-Shabaab (al-Shabab) in Kismayo is firmly underway. Initial reports are claiming that the SNA and mainly Kenyan troops have made important gains and appear to be in full control of vital parts of Kismayo. If it does materialize that al-Shabaab have been forced out completely, then an area of importance will be lost to this Islamist organization.

Long-term predictions are extremely complex because just like the Taliban in Afghanistan, then al-Shabaab may be melting away in order to fight on another day. The reason for this is to preserve the “Islamist agenda” by adapting to the prevailing conditions. After all, al-Shabaab isn’t a match to fight the Kenyan troops openly alongside the assistance of the SNA and other elements connected with AMISOM. Yet al-Shabaab is more at home fighting in street battles, inflicting terrorist attacks on their enemies, suicide attacks and other similar areas.

A spokesman for the military forces of Kenya, Colonel Cyrus Oguna, commented that “It was an amphibious assault, delicate and … meticulously planned…We have so far encountered minimum resistance.”

Disputes within the Islamist agenda in Somalia also appear to have played into the hands of the SNA and Kenyan troops. It remains largely unknown if international sponsors have been pressurized to stop channeling funds to al-Shabaab, or if the internal convulsions are based on a genuine power shift within the body politic of Somalia? However, it is clear that outside nations like Kenya desire to crush this regional menace in order to destabilize this part of Africa.

Al-Shabaab is known for terrorism, killing Muslim converts to Christianity in barbaric ways, enforcing rough justice based on Sharia Islamic law, shackling women and implementing many draconian policies. On top of this, it is abundantly clear that the political ambitions of this terrorist organization have repulsed many citizens of this country. This applies to stoning people to death, killing apostates, enforcing strict laws, whipping women and other draconian realities.

The commander of the forces belonging to the African Union is appealing to al-Shabaab to lay down their military arms and surrender. Andrew Gutti stated “We urge all fighters remaining in Kismayo to lay down their arms.”

Currently the real situation is unknown but if Kismayo falls then clearly central forces in Somalia will be boosted. However, the SNA and Kenyan troops will be edgy for the next few days and weeks because you may have incursions into Kismayo by Islamists. Likewise, terrorist attacks may occur and rivals within Kismayo may start to clash over controlling important areas. Therefore, much remains up in the air because in Afghanistan it is clear that the Taliban melted away quickly but in time this movement re-emerged.

Kismayo could become the beginning of the end of al-Shabaab – or alternatively it could become the start of a new battleground which also reaches northern Kenya? At the same time, rival militias may try to fill the vacuum and this could entail further chaos.

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Lee Jay Walker provided regional guidance in this article.

Jay Doggett and Boutros Hussein

Modern Tokyo Times

Sudan and South Sudan have struck a vital deal which should pave the way for more normal relations in the short-term. This applies to oil payments between both nations which were in dispute until the signing of this deal. However, it is clear that both nations don’t fully trust each other and in the long-term many troubles lie ahead.

This is understandable given the past history of this troubled region and clearly both nations are still meddling into the internal affairs of each nation. How this can be stopped in the short-term is uncertain because you have many serious internal ethnic and religious issues in Sudan and South Sudan respectively. Therefore, the oil deal over payments and other important issues related to this is an important avenue to overcome but the bigger picture is much more difficult.

The spokesperson for Sudan highlighted the real issue being security. This applies to the comment that while a “reasonable understanding” was achieved, the area of security still needs to move forward. In early 2012 the government in Khartoum was extremely irked when South Sudan stopped the production of oil because of a major row over transit fees. Neither nation gained from this because vast profits were squandered by both sides despite both nations having serious issues related to poverty.

Talks in Ethiopia to solve the crisis have ushered in new promises after three weeks of important talks between Sudan and South Sudan. It is not fully known when oil production will begin but it is being linked to security issues between both nations. Also, given the delicate nature of politics in South Sudan then it is not known how this agreement will be received. After all, with so much suffering in South Sudan then people in Juba will be unhappy about compensating the Khartoum government.

In the past you had a bloody and violent war which led to the deaths of millions of people with the south suffering especially hard. The Arabization and Islamization policies of past Sudan governments, is not easily forgotten. Therefore, political leaders in South Sudan need to explain to the people of this new nation why the agreement is in the interest of both nations. Of course, South Sudanese people fully understand the economic angle but it will still be a “bitter pill to swallow” for many.

The former leader of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki, commented that “The parties have agreed on all of the financial arrangements regarding oil….What will remain, given that there is an agreement, is to then discuss the next steps as to when the oil companies should be asked to prepare for resumption of production and export.”

Despite everything, it is clear that a trigger could easily lead to fresh tensions between South Sudan and Sudan. After all, both sides are involved in internal issues within both states related to delicate ethnic issues and other important areas. For now, it is hoped that both nations can move forward but clearly the relationship between Khartoum and Juba will remain tense for the foreseeable future.

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Boutros Hussein and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Adan Wachu is extremely angry by the recent terrorist attack against Christians in Kenya and clearly this individual is thinking deeply about events in northern Nigeria. His views count powerfully because he is the head of the Supreme Council of Kenyan Muslims. Therefore, Adan Wachu wasted no time in acting on this barbaric terrorist attack by suspected militants who belong to the al-Shabaab (al-Shabab) in Somalia.

Christian leaders have also been calling for calm and to join forces with Muslims in order to protect religious freedom and diversity in Kenya. Leaders from both communities know that the al-Shabaab desire to create sectarianism in order to further their ambitions. With this in mind, leaders from both religious groups stated their commonality which applies to belonging to “humanity.”

Adan Wachu commented that “There are people out there who are determined to make Kenya another Nigeria.” However, he continued, “It’s not going to be allowed to have a sectarian division in this country – whoever wants to do that will of course fail.”

The al-Shabaab in Somalia is a fundamentalist Sunni Islamic terrorist and political movement which kills all apostates to Christianity. In the past, many converts from Islam to Christianity were killed by the al-Shabaab including brutal beheadings which were filmed. This militant organization is clearly influenced by the Islamist movements which are based throughout Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Therefore, just like in Mali, traditional Sunni Islam was replaced within several terrorist movements by interpretations which came from outside of Africa – and like usual, the majority of roads lead back to organizations and wealthy individuals in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and throughout the Gulf region.

At the same time, religious missionaries from various Gulf nations are spreading a powerful Islamist ideology and in many ways this is the most dangerous problem. After all, once indoctrination takes hold then indigenous Sunni Islam is attacked by Salafists and Wahhabi Muslims.  Following on from this are attacks against Christians, people who follow traditional religions and against the respective state apparatus of the country under attack.

The brutal attack against Christians led to the deaths of fifteen people in the city of Garissa in Kenya. Islamists killed two policemen who were protecting the church and then they turned against parishioners who were worshipping inside the Christian holy place. Fifteen people were killed and many injured. Another Christian church was attacked by a grenade which led to several injuries. The fact that the Christian churches were being guarded is a clear indication that al-Shabaab was known to be a threat before this brutal massacre took place.

David Mwange, a local churchgoer, stated that “We were deep in prayers preparing to give our offerings” when Islamists attacked and killed so many people. Ismail Garat, the Mayor of Garissa, commented that “We are not used to witnessing such kinds of acts in our country, where people are just shot in broad daylight. We really want to know who the heartless people who did this are.”

For this reason, Muslim leaders in Kenya have responded quickly because they know that the al-Shabaab and other Islamist “dark forces” desire to spread sectarianism. Therefore, Muslim leaders have made it clear that they will create self-defense groups in order to protect Christians and churches, which are threatened the most near the border with Somalia.

James Ole Sereni, provincial administrator, commented that “The people who did this want to start a war between Christians and Muslims. This is the work of terrorists who want to divide Kenya’s Christians and Muslims.”

Therefore, it is essential that Christians and Muslims come together in Kenya because this is the only way to defeat the forces of Islamism and sectarianism. At the same time, louder voices need to be raised about the destabilization policies of so many nations which have enabled breeding grounds of indoctrination to take place. Similarly, funding and educational channels need to be stopped in order to prevent communal violence between Christians and Muslims. At the same time, it is also essential to protect African Islam from the blind hatred of fundamentalist Islam which emanates from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

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Joachim de Villiers and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Recent tensions between Sudan and South Sudan are setting off alarm bells within the African Union (AU) and throughout the international community. The policies of Arabization and Islamizaton were endless for many decades because of various rulers in Khartoum, which desired to enforce Islamic Sharia law on non-Muslims. This meant that African culture was reduced to a colonial policy by various Khartoum governments which were bent on domination and Arabization. Therefore, when South Sudan became independent it was hoped that “a new dawn” would emerge. However, past history and the continuing interference into the internal affairs of both nations is creating mutual distrust.

In the last few weeks it is clear that recent developments are being manipulated by leaders in Khartoum. After all, leaders in Juba have stated that they are open to compromise and sitting down with political leaders in Sudan. Yet, the political and military elites in Khartoum have made it clear that they don’t desire a solution to the latest crisis.

The AU is trying to steady the situation by calling on both nations to pull out of the disputed border zone in order to stabilize the situation. During the initial stages of the current crisis the Khartoum government pointed the finger at political leaders in Juba for starting recent hostilities. This is denied by President Salva Kiir of South Sudan but irrespective of which nation started the current crisis, it is clear that the rhetoric from Khartoum is inflaming the situation.

During a recent meeting held at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) many similar avenues were explored, with regards to the AU. However, the UNSC also rebuked Sudan because of aerial bombardments by the military of the Khartoum government. Indeed, President Salva Kiir commented that Sudan has already “declared war” on the people of South Sudan.

In another article about the current crisis by Modern Tokyo Times it was stated that “Recent tensions between Sudan and South Sudan point clearly in the favor of South Sudan which is seeking a solution to a very delicate situation. President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, on the other hand, is sprouting the words of war and increasing the rhetoric to a level of deep concern. Therefore, Uganda is making it clear that they will not stand by and allow South Sudan to be torn apart by the policies of Khartoum.”

The United States ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, stated that “We strongly condemn Sudan’s incursion into South Sudan and, in particular, its heavy aerial bombardments of civilian areas and infrastructure, and we call for the immediate cessation of hostilities.”

“We recognize the right of South Sudan to defend itself and urge South Sudan to exercise maximal restraint in its reaction to Sudan’s attacks.”

This comment would appear that America is hardening its position against the Khartoum government because earlier President Obama had stated that “Sudan needs to halt all military actions, including aerial bombardments; give aid workers unfettered access to people in need; and end support for armed groups…. Similarly, South Sudan must end its support for armed groups inside Sudan and cease its military actions across the border.”

The above comment by President Obama is much more even-handed because he also states that South Sudan must “cease its military actions across the border.” This would imply that the initial presumptions of who started the latest crisis is now in doubt and in view of the words by the leader of Sudan, then America is seeking to put pressure on the Khartoum government.

After all, the leader of Sudan, President Omar al-Bashir, stated that “Sudan should not be ruled separately in the north and the south, either they (SPLM) come and control Khartoum or we go and control Juba. Heglig isn’t the end, it is the beginning, and we shall go all the way to [South Sudanese capital] Juba.”

However, like previously mentioned in another article it is clear that regional powers like Uganda will not tolerate the threat towards South Sudan. General Aronda Kyakarima, Uganda’s Chief of Defense Forces, commented that “We will not sit by and do nothing. We will be involved having suffered a proxy war by Khartoum.”  

It is also difficult for the international community to tell South Sudan to keep out of the affairs of Sudan because the Khartoum government is responsible for many massacres in Darfur, Southern Kordofan, and the Blue Nile. If these opposition forces to the Khartoum government are defeated, then clearly a unified Sudan under the current leader would be a serious threat to South Sudan. Therefore, it is essential that South Sudan gets involved with a military pact with Uganda and Kenya, and possibly Ethiopia, which is defensive in nature.

If this happens, then South Sudan can be confident in its survival and tensions in Sudan can be solved internally and with the help of the AU and UN. This would appear to be a logical way to tackle the many internal issues of both Sudan and South Sudan.

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Joachim de Villiers, Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Recent tensions between Sudan and South Sudan point clearly in the favor of South Sudan which is seeking a solution to a very delicate situation. President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan, on the other hand, is sprouting the words of war and increasing the rhetoric to a level of deep concern. Therefore, Uganda is making it clear that they will not stand by and allow South Sudan to be torn apart by the policies of Khartoum.

President Salva Kiir from South Sudan ordered the armed forces of South Sudan to pull out of the Heglig oil field region. Sadly, the United Nations chief, Ban Ki-moon, was quick to state that the occupation of this area was illegal without doing a thorough investigation. After all, leaders in South Sudan state that the armed forces of Sudan entered their territory first and this was the reason for entering the Heglig oil field region.

President Omar al-Bashir commented that “Sudan should not be ruled separately in the north and the south, either they (SPLM) come and control Khartoum or we go and control Juba. Heglig isn’t the end, it is the beginning, and we shall go all the way to [South Sudanese capital] Juba.”

This rhetoric set off alarm bells in Uganda because in the past the policies of Khartoum have been extremely dangerous with regards to Arabization and Islamization policies in southern Sudan. Also, the government of Khartoum assisted the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in the past and this caused much bloodshed in northern Uganda. Therefore, political and military leaders in Uganda are watching events closely.

Uganda’s Chief of Defense Forces, General Aronda Nyakairima, commented that “We will not sit by and do nothing. We will be involved having suffered a proxy war by Khartoum.”  This was quoted in the Daily Monitor and General Aronda Nyakairima further elaborated about the role of Khartoum in supporting the LRA in the past.

It is essential for the government of South Sudan to increase its political, military, and economic ties, with friendly nations like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. After all, this new nation state faced brutal Arabization and Islamization policies in the past which threatened various ethnic African groups in southern Sudan. Arab enslavement of Africans is still within the memory in southern Sudan because of past history and recent history. Therefore, the people of South Sudan need international support because of countless internal issues related to developing the infrastructure and resolving internal ethnic issues.

President Obama from the United States commented that “Sudan needs to halt all military actions, including aerial bombardments; give aid workers unfettered access to people in need; and end support for armed groups…. Similarly, South Sudan must end its support for armed groups inside Sudan and cease its military actions across the border.”

The pull out of troops by South Sudan shows that political leaders in Juba are listening to the international community and that compromise is the desired path. This needs to be matched by political leaders in Khartoum who need to come to terms with South Sudan and to stop implementing policies of divide and rule.

Omar al-Bashir and political leaders in Khartoum should be focused on solving internal issues related to the Blue Nile, Darfur, Southern Kordofan, and other places of tension. Also, political leaders in South Sudan must focus on strengthening regional ties, the infrastructure, education, health care, and solving internal issues which exist between different ethnic groups.

Henry Bellingham, the United Kingdom minister for Africa, commented that “Sudan must also immediately cease all military action across the border, in particular bringing an end to aerial bombings of South Sudan’s territory.”

It is abundantly clear that political leaders don’t trust each other in Khartoum and Juba. Also, because of internal problems in both nations, then tensions remain high and vigilance is needed at all times. Therefore, until a solution is found to these complex issues related to internal security, then events can easily spiral out of control because of ethnic tensions.

Luckily for political leaders in Juba, it appears that Uganda will help this new nation state in the “hour of its need” and this is comforting for the people of South Sudan. It is incumbent on political leaders to act responsibly in Juba despite the provocations of Khartoum. After all, a devastating war will destroy all the progress taking place in South Sudan and Khartoum needs to be warned about bombing South Sudan.

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Joachim de Villiers, Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Omar al-Bashir, the President of Sudan, commented that he wanted to “liberate” the new entity of South Sudan from its own leaders. This was stated after forces from South Sudan entered and seized the Heglig oil field. It was generally believed that this area came under the jurisdiction of Sudan. However, recent ethnic-tensions in South Sudan appear to be based on meddling by the Khartoum government, into the internal affairs of South Sudan. Also, political leaders in Juba claim that they entered the region after the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) had launched an attack inside the territory of South Sudan.

In the past, the mainly African Animist and African Christian south suffered greatly because of Arabization and Islamization policies which were enacted by the Khartoum government. The enslavement of Africans by Arabs was still a reality in the 1980s and 1990s and untold millions died because of war and starvation. Therefore, when South Sudan was given independence in 2011 it was hoped that somehow both nations would build bridges.

Irrespective of which side is to blame for the latest crisis which erupted after the Heglig oil field was seized – it is clear that Omar al-Bashir is taking the crisis to another dimension and this is very worrying. The underlying fact is that memories from the past remain and because of internal tensions within both Sudan and South Sudan, and mutual mistrust between both nations, then the current crisis isn’t unexpected. This meant that the international community should have been better prepared for the threat of a possible war between both nations.

Omar al-Bashir stated that the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is nothing more than “insects” which need to be “eliminated.” Given the deaths of millions of Africans in the past because of Arabization policies and Islamization policies, then Omar al-Bashir should tone down his rhetoric. Also, the Khartoum government faces many internal problems related to Darfur and other regions within Sudan.

The ethnic and religious complexity of Sudan and South Sudan means that neither side can win because you have too many internal issues. Not only this, a war between both nations will merely increases the woes of both Sudan and South Sudan and ordinary people in both countries will suffer the economic implications. Therefore, international pressure is needed to be put on both nations because an all out war would be a calamity for both sides.

President Omar al-Bashir is implying that the crisis in Heglig will finish in either Juba or Khartoum. This implies an all out war but leaders in South Sudan want dialogue and this in itself points the finger at the Khartoum government. Obviously, mistakes will have been made on both sides but the rhetoric of President Omar al-Bashir is alarming.

The SAF is also under great pressure in Sudan in the Blue Nile, Darfur, and Southern Kordofan. Also, the fighting in Heglig doesn’t bode well for the Khartoum government therefore President Omar al-Bashir is playing a dangerous game. After all, South Sudan isn’t isolated because regional nations like Kenya and Uganda have great sympathy with South Sudan.

President Omar al-Bashir commented about the SPLM that “We say that it has turned into a disease, a disease for us and for the South Sudanese citizens. The main goal should be liberation from these insects and to get rid of them once and for all, God willing…Either we end up in Juba and take everything, or you end up in Khartoum and take everything.”

It is essential that pressure is put on both sides and a special buffer zone should be put into place between Sudan and South Sudan which is monitored by outside international institutions. The past caused the deaths of millions of people in Sudan and for this reason the international community needs to act quickly and implement real policies in order to solve the many complexities of both nations. Of course, this isn’t going to be easy but the people of Sudan and South Sudan deserve outside support because of the brutal wars of the past.

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Uganda: No Resolutions to Growing Tensions

International Crisis Group

Africa Report N°187 5 

James Jomo and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

In 2011 many political convulsions have challenged nations in North Africa and the Middle East. The optimism of the so-called “Arab Spring” remains to be unfulfilled because you have so much uncertainty in nations like Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia. At the same time the death of Osama bin Laden wasn’t the decisive blow to international terrorism because recent events in many nations show that this menace is still potent. This notably applies to the recent slaughter of Christians in Nigeria by Islamists belonging to Boko Haram.

Images of Christians, Muslims, and secularists, celebrating political change in Egypt seems like a distant dream. After all, many Coptic Christians have been killed and a sizeable minority of Muslims supported an Islamic party which seeks to restrict the role of Christians in Egypt.

President Obama, much like the ethical policy of Tony Blair (past leader in the United Kingdom), showed his hand clearly by announcing a huge military deal with Saudi Arabia. Therefore, any notion of democracy and supporting human rights was thrown out the window. In fairness to Obama this is a systematic reality within the body politic of America. However, it makes a mockery of his ethical stances because in the land of Saudi Arabia not one single Buddhist temple is allowed or Christian church and of course all apostates from Islam face death in this nation.

Meanwhile the Euro crisis and the foundations of the European Union have been challenged to the hilt. This applies to one economic crisis after another and monetary issues will continue to be a major issue in the early months of 2012. At the same time political leaders have lost power in Greece and Italy and European technocrats who have been unelected now rule the roost in these two nations. Therefore, the “Arab Spring” appears to be ushering in “a non-democratic new dawn” while in Europe new leaders can obtain power despite being unelected – not a pleasant thought.

On a more positive note you now have a new nation called South Sudan and providing the international community supports this new entity, then some “rays of sunshine” will have happened in 2011. However, the path ahead is fraught with danger because Arab Islamists in Khartoum still desire to rule the many different African ethnic groups which comprise of Sudan. This means that bloodshed will continue in 2012 in places like Darfur and the fear is that the Khartoum government may seek to create instability in South Sudan because of the delicate nature of this new nation. Given this, the international community must develop mechanisms with political leaders in South Sudan in order to help this new nation and to guarantee its future, while major obstacles are being challenged by central forces in Juba.

The Russian Federation and Kazakhstan are entering 2012 with certain levels of uncertainty. This applies to political challenges and outside meddling from international powers which seek to cause mayhem internally. Therefore, the world is waiting to see if Putin can remain all powerful alongside Medvedev or if “the house of cards” will collapse because of external and internal agitation.

The forgotten Serbian Orthodox Christians in Kosovo still face a bleak future because they can’t freely travel around Kosovo. At the same time, power processes are against the Serbian Orthodox Christians of Kosovo and political leaders in Belgrade have to walk a tightrope – but, if the current leaders could abandon their brethren in Kosovo, it would appear that they would do so in order to enter the EU club. However, internal events and a backlash could alter the political landscape in Serbia and this is the main concern of the current political leadership in Belgrade. This means that the ghettoization of an entire religious and ethnic group will continue in the heart of Europe and what does this tell us about the new Europe?

In Myanmar the international media is focusing on current positives because political elites in this nation appear to be opening up. Yet, despite this, many minority ethnic and religious groups are still being persecuted and Free Burma Rangers continues to highlight the reality on the ground. The fear is that these minority ethnic groups will be further abandoned in order to establish short-term goals. Also, if the regime turns away from China – then minorities have much to fear from further abandonment and isolation.

Therefore, the mainly Christian Karen elites and other ethnic groups like the Shan and Chin will continue to face an uncertain future. At the same time, the majority of the international media will give scant coverage outside of issues related to Aung San Suu Kyi and issues related to the current leaders of Myanmar.

Madness sadly hit Norway in 2011 when Anders Breivik killed 77 people in Oslo. The reason for this barbaric attack was then manipulated like a political football but the truth is that this individual was clearly deranged. He was neither a Bible thumping individual nor a regular churchgoer but this didn’t stop the anti-Christian brigade from having a field day. However, the bare fact is that the majority of people he killed were white Norwegians and Christian – this hardly matches the “mad racist” and “devout Christian” image which was being brandished about. Indeed, Breivik stated that  ”I’ve always been very pragmatic and influenced by my secular surroundings and environment.”

Sadly, the gruesome murder of innocents was lost and the massacre committed by Anders Breivik was clearly aimed at a political party he detested. The events of this day will never be forgotten in Norway because it highlighted the weakness of security agencies because one individual managed to throw the entire nation into deep shock. Hopefully, Anders Breivik will never be released from prison and different ethnic and religious communities will work more closely together in order to show the real spirit of Norway.

Natural disasters hit many nations, including Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, and many others. Therefore, tens of thousands of people died because of natural disasters. The March 11 tsunami which hit Japan was felt all over the world because of the harrowing scenes which were caught on camera. Also, Japan became the first nation in history to be hit by a devastating earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis, at the same time.

The reverberations of the nuclear crisis can still be felt today in Japan and throughout the world. Therefore, the nuclear energy issue became a hot topic and nations like Germany did a u-turn without much thought, irrespective if individuals agree with Germany or not. Ironically, this u-turn will not stop Germany utilizing the nuclear power stations in France but this is a different issue. Meanwhile, the government of Japan is caught between realism, business issues, energy concerns, the green movement, power shortages, a general public which is still divided, and other important factors related to the nuclear sector.

The March 11 earthquake which unleashed the tsunami was truly devastating because tens of thousands of people died. Also, the speed of events shocked people because the tsunami literally destroyed towns and villages that were in its path. Therefore, even today many people are still missing and vast numbers of people are without proper homes in areas hit by the tsunami.

Residents who reside (and who resided) near the Daiichi nuclear power plant in Fukushima continue to face a bleak future. Also, the tourist industry, fisheries, and other important areas which created jobs have been hindered by the devastating events of March 11. Given this, the central government needs to work closely with local governments and various agencies in order to get the region back on its feet.

It isn’t all doom and gloom because many communities have started to fight back and rebuild and this also applies to attracting new investment. Therefore, the picture is very mixed but clearly all positive mechanisms need to work together in order to resolve the major obstacles which people and the local business community still face.

2011 isn’t only based on negative events but clearly the political, economic, and natural disasters, have all unleashed convulsions which still can be felt. In this sense, the early period of 2012 will be a natural continuation. After all, the nuclear ill wind in Japan remains unresolved when it applies to radiation and its impact on the natural environment and on local people. The economic crisis in Europe remains and the same applies to other parts of the world but some positive signs can be felt in some nations. Also, the so-called “Arab Spring” may turn out to be truly democratic in the long-term or it may be a false dawn where Islamists take control and new despots emerge – it is impossible to say either way with confidence.

Nations like Nigeria and Somalia will continue to face the menace of radical Sunni Islamic terrorist attacks and attacks against central forces will continue. Issues related to democracy in China will be monitored more deeply given the current political climate and North Korea will probably remain on the same footing. However, North Korea may implement some economic reforms and the new leader may turn out to be more independent minded. Meanwhile, the political merry-go-round will continue in Japan whereby political leaders in the two main political parties will face internal struggles.

The Olympics in London in 2012 offer a positive note because this event will be watched by billions of people. Also, you have signs that China and Japan will focus on greater economic initiatives which will strengthen cooperation between these two powerful neighbors. Overall, 2012 looks like another stuttering year whereby economic issues and political convulsions will continue to create new major problems.

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