Joachim de Villiers and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Archbishop Desmond Tutu is meant to be retired but despite this he remains to be a thorn in the side of the ruling African National Congress (ANC). Over the last few years it is abundantly clear that Tutu believes that the ANC is betraying their roots. Therefore, his latest outburst against the ruling party in South Africa is nothing new despite the severity of Tutu’s comments against the ANC.

In the Mail and Guardian newspaper which is published in South Africa the respected Archbishop Tutu doesn’t pull any punches. Instead, he openly makes it clear that he would no longer vote for the ANC despite his firm support for this political organization in the past. He comments in this media group that “…one can point to so many instances of corruption, of unaccountability. Seeing how standards have dropped is so galling because it seems to give ammunition to those who would say: “We warned you that once you had a black majority government you would see a steady decline in standards.”

Archbishop Tutu continues by stating that “I’m not a card-carrying member of any political party. I have over the years voted for the ANC, but I would very sadly not be able to vote for them after the way things have gone.”

The comments above are aimed at many areas but this notably applies to the gap between the poor and rich, corruption, supporting authoritarian governments and bending over backwards towards China. Archbishop Tutu states that “a lot of people in the textile industry have been thrown out of work because the country has been flooded with cheap Chinese goods. But what has been even more distressing for me is how our country has seemed to kowtow to Beijing.”

In fairness to the government of South Africa it must be stated that Archbishop Tutu does have lofty noble ideals which are far from reality. After all, every single major democratic country in the world will have dealings with Saudi Arabia which is the most repressive nation in the world. This applies to Saudi women facing being whipped if not covered up from head to toe; no non-Muslim places of worship; legalized child marriage of young girls to old men under Islamic Sharia law; controlling the movement of women based on passport ownership and other draconian realities – and so much more. Therefore, it could well be that Archbishop Tutu is too idealistic yet despite this he does make fair points about corruption, the growing gap between rich and poor and other important internal issues.

AP reported two years ago that Archbishop Tutu stated that “South Africans will pray for the downfall of the ANC like they did with the apartheid government…Mubarak had a large majority. Gaddafi had a large majority. Watch out. I am warning you. Watch out…People were opposed to injustice and oppression and people believe that we South Africans would be on the side of those who are oppressed. Tibet is being oppressed.” 

Desmond Tutu is highly respected in South Africa and internationally because this Christian leader speaks from the heart. Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu are the “old guard” but despite their age and issues related to the health of Nelson Mandela – their respective words on important issues are taken seriously. Therefore, the ANC should take a good look in the mirror and focus on areas related to social inequality and other areas raised by Archbishop Tutu. Of course, you will have areas which are more complex for political parties when they are in power. Despite this, it would be folly to sideline this elder statesman because he clearly connects with the people of South Africa.

http://mg.co.za/article/2013-05-17-00-where-did-our-future-go-asks-tutu Desmond Tutu

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22478916

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Walter Sebastian and Pierre Leblanc

Modern Tokyo Times

The economic crisis throughout the eurozone and the European Union is causing widespread despair in the worse hit nations. Currently Cyprus, Greece and Spain continue to hog the negative headlines but other nations like Portugal have also been hit very hard. Therefore, for many nationals from Portugal they are looking to other nations in order to escape the cycle of poverty. This reality means that a reversal of past migrant trends is happening between Portugal and Mozambique because now nationals from Portugal are increasingly moving to this part of Africa.

Nationals from Portugal are also relocating to other European nations but for some it is Mozambique which is providing new opportunities. Other European citizens from nations which have been particularly hit hard are also moving in the hope of a fresh start. Therefore, the immigration reality of the last few years in Europe is witnessing new trends which would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

Eurostat released new unemployment figures which stated that in early 2013 over 19 million European citizens throughout the eurozone were unemployed. The figure is higher within the larger European Union and this sums-up the difficult situation for many people who reside in stagnant nations.  After all, it is not only that unemployment is extremely high in some nations but the long-term future also looks bleak because of growing debt. National governments are responding to the crisis by focusing on austerity measures. However, when citizens have hit rock bottom then new austerity measures are like kicking someone when they are down and out.

Democratic institutions within Europe appear to have committed collective economic calamity because resources and investments have been squandered during the so-called good times. However, some nations appear still to be intent on spending tax-payers money on distant lands and involving themselves in foreign conflicts. This notably applies to nations like France and the United Kingdom. Yet for countries like Portugal they were always on the periphery of Europe and the ambitions of this nation were much more restrained compared with the elites in London and Paris.

Citizens in Portugal are therefore seeking pastures new and with some nationals picking Mozambique then a certain element of continuity remains. This applies to the rich cultural interaction between both nations which for too long in history was dominated negatively by Portugal. However, the “changing sands” is now witnessing a new positive image of Mozambique and the commonality of the Portuguese language is a natural attraction.

In a past Modern Tokyo Times article it was stated that “Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, is witnessing a boom based on strong economic growth in this nation. This is a far cry from the colonial period and the brutal civil war which followed. However, while these times will always remain etched within history and never forgotten; the new Mozambique is focused on economic prosperity and ongoing modernization.”

The Market Research website states that “The outlook for the Mozambican economy continues to look bright and we are forecasting real GDP growth of 7.6% in 2013 and 8.1%in 2014. Investment into the country’s natural resource sectors will be the major driver although infrastructure and consumption are also likely to perform well.”

Therefore, when you contrast the current hope which exists in Mozambique compared with the doom and gloom of modern Portugal; then clearly it is understandable why many nationals from this nation are looking to relocate to this part of Africa. Fresh hope in Mozambique can also be found because of new discoveries in the field of energy. This reality means that while great emphasis is currently on Maputo for newcomers from Portugal; this may change in the future because of new projects related to recent discoveries in the gas sector and in other parts of the economy which are related to natural resources.

It must be stated that the economy of Mozambique is still at a relatively low base and you have major issues related to poverty. Also, the infrastructure needs to be developed to a much higher level and greater economic redistribution is needed in order to help neglected areas. Despite this, for many skilled workers in Portugal then they can sense rich pickings and a new start.

Skilled workers from Portugal are especially focused on vibrant sectors within Mozambique. This notably applies to financial services, transportation, construction, communications and the blossoming energy sector.

The new Europe for many citizens is now based on several tiers whereby countries like Germany are dominating too much. At the same time, the bottom tier is looking increasing weak and burdensome. Therefore, relocating to Mozambique and to first tier European nations for many Portuguese nationals is the only way to escape poverty. Of course, Portuguese nationals are not alone because many workers from other nations like Greece and Spain are moving to new nations in order to escape the cycle of hopelessness and desperation.

Lee Jay Walker gave guidance to both writers

http://www.marketresearch.com/Business-Monitor-International-v304/Mozambique-Business-Forecast-Q1-7269034/

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

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Walter Sebastian and Jay Doggett

Modern Tokyo Times

The crisis within the eurozone in Portugal is leading to many individuals leaving this nation and relocating to Mozambique. Portugal which once ruled Mozambique is witnessing new “changing sands” because of the current economic crisis within the eurozone. Therefore, many individuals are seeking a new life in Mozambique in order to escape the economic malaise of Portugal.

Maputo, the capital of Mozambique, is witnessing a boom based on strong economic growth in this nation. This is a far cry from the colonial period and the brutal civil war which followed. However, while these times will always remain etched within history and never forgotten; the new Mozambique is focused on economic prosperity and ongoing modernization.

In Portugal the economy remains gloomy and issues related to debt and a bright future remains cloudy. At the same time the economy of Mozambique is growing by over 7% this year and is forecast to do the same the following year. On top of this, new major discoveries of gas and coal are also igniting interest in other parts of Mozambique.

Maputo is still the main pulling power for newcomers from Portugal. However, the discovery of major reserves in the area of natural resources is providing fresh impetus in other parts of this country.

Of course, internal problems remain in Mozambique related to poverty and the relative low base of the economy compared with major developed nations. Yet for many skilled citizens from Portugal it appears that Mozambique is a new gateway to economic prosperity. Of course, the power of the Portuguese language and past history, despite this history being “troubled” and based on inequality, means that you have many natural binding factors.

Until recently many people from Mozambique deemed Portugal to be a gateway to future prosperity and escaping from the cycle of poverty and lack of opportunities in this nation. Yet in a relatively short period of time political leaders have kick started the once moribund economy and sowed the seeds of fresh hope. It is this hope which is galvanizing entrepreneurs within Mozambique and which is enticing people from Portugal because of lean times back home.

Areas of economic growth in Mozambique apply notably to the financial services, transportation, construction, communications and now the energy sector. This in turn is witnessing strong economic growth throughout this nation.

It is the collective crisis within the eurozone and the boom in Mozambique which is leading to people from Portugal relocating to Mozambique. This in itself is highlighting the severe economic crisis in nations like Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy and other nations in the eurozone.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

International Crisis Group

Intensified violence against those deemed to be ZANU-PF enemies has exposed the limitations of Zimbabwe’s much delayed reform process and threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). President Mugabe’s call for early elections has increased fears of a return to 2008’s violence. Prime Minister Tsvangirai has appealed for help from the region. Eventual elections are inevitable, but without credible, enforceable reforms, Zimbabwe faces another illegitimate vote and prospects of entrenched polarisation and crisis. GPA guarantors – the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and its South African-led facilitation team – have an uphill battle to secure implementation. ZANU-PF is increasingly confident it can intimidate opponents and frustrate reform, and there is waning faith, internally and externally, in MDC-T capacities. Mugabe’s health and ZANU-PF succession turmoil are further complications. Without stronger international pressure on ZANU-PF, the tenuous current coalition may collapse, triggering further violence and grave consequences for southern Africa.

The GPA, signed by the three political parties (ZANU-PF, MDC-T and MDC-M) in September 2008, was intended to provide a foundation for response to the multiple political and economic crises, but it has become a battleground for control of the country’s future. As in 2008, ZANU-PF’s ability, in partnership with the unreformed security sector leadership (the “securocrats”), to thwart a democratic transfer of power remains intact. The state media is still grotesquely unbalanced, and the criminal justice system continues to be used as a weapon against ZANU-PF opponents, in particular the MDC-T.

The centrepiece of GPA reforms is a parliament-led constitution-making process under the direction of the Constitution Parliamentary Affairs (Select) Committee (COPAC). That body launched an outreach program in the latter half of 2010, but several civil society organisations and the MDC-T criticise it for falling far short of being inclusive and open and accuse ZANU-PF of having captured and manipulated the process. Many Zimbabweans, however, still consider the constitution-writing exercise important for moving the country forward. While drafting has begun, leading toward an all-stakeholders conference, parliamentary approval and a referendum, every step presents opportunity for opposition, delay and obfuscation.

Both MDC parties argue that COPAC must finish its work before elections are held, but ZANU-PF says elections can proceed with or without a new constitution and links its cooperation on democratic reforms to removal of targeted international sanctions, over which the parties have no control. In late February 2011, the facilitation team’s visit to Harare resulted in a commitment from the three party leaders to implement their August 2010 agreement on outstanding GPA issues. This did not include a commitment to the sequence of elections after a constitutional referendum. Nevertheless, having failed to produce an agreed plan themselves, the party leaders deferred to the facilitators to produce a roadmap for pre-election action.

The GPA guarantors and the facilitation team have until very recently shied from addressing poor progress directly. On 31 March 2011, however, the SADC troika (Namibia, Mozambique and Zambia) took note of the lack of progress in GPA implementation and related matters and the rise in levels of violence and intimidation and laid out steps that must now be taken to address the situation. This is a significant development that illustrates a public hardening of attitudes and increasing frustration within the regional organisation toward the GPA signatories, in particular ZANU-PF. The MDC-T welcomed the communiqué, which is a direct response to the multiple grievances it as well as civil society groups have expressed. ZANU-PF and Mugabe have countered that they will not tolerate external interference, even from neighbours. The next few months will determine whether SADC can follow its words by producing action that advances the reform agenda and prospects for a sustainable transition. That in turn will indicate whether the conditions necessary for credible elections exist.

The worsening climate of fear and violence means security sector reform (SSR) should be the most immediate challenge. In addition, important institutions need to be strengthened, including parliamentary committees and the Human Rights, Media and Electoral Commissions. These measures should be supplemented by continued support for civil society to engage with those bodies as set out in the GPA. Until the draft constitution is produced, however, it is unlikely that even the limited SSR contained in the GPA will be meaningfully addressed.

The facilitation team recognises that it needs a constant presence in Zimbabwe. Its roadmap should propose an audit of what has and has not been done, what the parties can and cannot achieve. If further power-sharing is inevitable, a pragmatic assessment of the current arrangement’s failure is needed. The guarantors and facilitation team have relied on the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC), set up by the GPA – four members from each of the three signatory parties – for evaluations, but it has not fulfilled its mandate, due to inadequate monitoring capacity, no enforcement leverage and problems navigating the distorted balance of power within government. In recognition of its poor performance, the SADC troika recommended strengthening the facilitation team’s monitoring and reporting capacity, so it could work closer with the JOMIC. The annual progress review the Periodic Review Mechanism should provide in consultation with the guarantors has not been done, though the party leaders recently agreed to correct this. The guarantors must ensure a comprehensive review.

The roadmap should call upon the political leadership to collectively establish clear priorities, with a particular focus on how to secure conditions for credible elections. As endorsed by the recent troika summit, the SADC “Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections” provides the accepted frame of reference. The referendum envisaged for the draft constitution would be an important opportunity to test electoral conditions.

The GPA still offers a coherent framework for putting in place conditions for credible elections. However, progress remains stymied because ZANU-PF has not demonstrated a credible commitment to democratic reforms, and the MDC-T is not strong enough to force them through. The GPA guarantors and South Africa have now indicated they are prepared to take a much more hands-on approach, although it is unclear how this will manifest itself. It is important that they continually engage Zimbabwe’s political leaders to take their own commitments seriously and set clear benchmarks and timelines for achieving the concrete steps set out in the SADC communiqué. Accelerating the implementation of key reforms, many of which have already been approved, is all the more necessary because a credible election process cannot take place until the appropriate conditions are in place.

RECOMMENDATIONS

To the Inclusive Government formed pursuant to the GPA:

1.  Cooperate fully with the recommendations in the communiqué of the 31 March 2011 SADC summit of the Organ Troika on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation.

2.  Make finalisation of the COPAC constitution exercise a priority, including by identifying and utilising available resources and support from the GPA guarantors and the wider international community, so as to enable a process that allows Zimbabweans to campaign for or against the draft constitution without fear or persecution.

To the Constitution Parliamentary Affairs (Select) Committee (COPAC):

3.  Pursue constitutional reform and other legislative measures that advance rule of law and overcome the legacy of political violence and impunity, including by promoting professional and accountable policing, removing the military’s involvement in internal policing and promoting effective parliamentary oversight of all security and intelligence structures.

To the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) as GPA Guarantors:

4.  Endorse at head of state level in both organisations the 31 March 2011 SADC troika communiqué calling for constitutional reform before elections and a roadmap to enable credible elections to take place.

5.  Initiate, including by deploying an AU exploratory mission, a comprehensive assessment of violence and related matters in Zimbabwe to determine whether conditions are conducive for free and fair elections, as envisaged under the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance and the SADC “Principles and Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections”.

6.  Make recommendations to assist in the achievement of such conditions, including with respect to the need to ensure that the country’s security forces are not undermined by renegade elements.

7.  Support the COPAC process and broader GPA reform initiatives through technical and financial assistance, as well as the deployment of personnel from the region where feasible; and review, in coordination with the political parties, the existing legislative agenda to identify GPA reform priorities that have not been addressed, with a focus on enabling conditions for credible elections.

8.  Ensure that the facilitation team’s roadmap recommends a revision of the GPA’s internal monitoring and review mechanisms, in particular that:

a) JOMIC should have a more active role to deal with cases of political violence, including oversight of investigations by national police and producing regular public reports to the GPA signatories, who in turn should be obliged to respond publicly in writing; and

b) JOMIC reports should provide a basis for the Periodic Review Mechanism’s reporting and recommendations as set out in Article 23 of the GPA.

9.  Affirm that participation of civil society organisations is necessary to provide full legitimacy to the COPAC and other GPA reform processes and to this end establish a channel for direct access to the SADC facilitator for civil society actors to raise concerns about implementation of the GPA.

To the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP):

10.  Ensure full accountability and transparency in the use of its funds in support of constitution-making so as to create greater confidence in the process.

To the Government of South Africa:

11.  Seek to use the South Africa-Zimbabwe Joint Permanent Commission on Defence and Security to undertake an assessment of defence and security conditions in Zimbabwe and their related implications for South Africa.

To the wider International Community, including the UN and European Union:

12.  Assist, including by active diplomatic engagement, the efforts of the GPA guarantors to ensure and facilitate processes and institutions supporting the development of democratic and accountable governance.

13.  Support and strengthen civil society’s efforts to provide coherent, systematic and accurate reports and analysis of violence, including by improving verification methods, identifying priority concerns, developing clear and effective channels of communication and, ultimately, by bringing findings to the attention of local, regional and international policymakers, institutions and media.

Harare/Johannesburg/Nairobi/Brussels

Africa Report N°173 27

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/southern-africa/zimbabwe/173-zimbabwe-the-road-to-reform-or-another-dead-end.aspx - original link

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