Vojin Joksimovich, PhD

Modern Tokyo Times

Blowback

The term blowback became a part of my vocabulary after I read Chalmers Johnson’s book:  Blowback: The Costs and Consequences of American Empire. The late Chalmers Johnson was my neighbor. He sent me a copy of his book and wrote: “With appreciation for your excellent Kosovo Crisis.” His book dealt with examples of Okinawa, Stealth Imperialism, South Korea, North Korea, China, Japan and Meltdown. I felt that my book Kosovo Crisis: A Policy in the Foreign Policy Mismanagement and even more so in my subsequent book The Revenge of the Prophet: How Clinton and his Predecessors Empowered Radical Islam, that these two books supplement his blowback examples while focusing on different parts of the world: Balkans, Middle East and Central Asia. The Boston marathon horror appears to be yet another blowback attributable to the US foreign and domestic immigration policies.

101 on Salafism (Radical Islam)

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), founded by Egyptian Al-Banna in 1928, has had a slogan: “God is our purpose; the Prophet is our leader; the Koran is our constitution, Jihad is our way; and dying for God’s causes our supreme objective.” The MB spawned another Egyptian called Sayyid Qutb, who provided the intellectual underpinnings of the Salafi jihadism or Radical Islam as it exists today. Salafism advocates a strict interpretation of the Koran and a return to the practices of the Prophet Mohammed and his disciples. Salafists, also called Islamists, are using a black banner as their emblem and they consider jihad as the pillar of Islam. The remarkable “success” of Salafism, including the rise after the so called the Arab spring, is attributable primarily to the Saudi petrodollars and Qatar is increasingly playing a more important role. Saudi Arabia, a key US ally, has been funding for decades Islamic proselytism of its own branch of Salafism, i.e. a conservative version of Sunni Islam named Wahhabism, after its creator Muhammad  ibn Abd Wahhab (1703-1791). Wahhabism became the state religion of Saudi Arabia. It could be viewed that present-day Salafism is an export version of Wahhabism. By supporting various Salafist groups, Saudi Arabia ensures it will not be threatened by home-grown jihadists. The US policy-makers consider Saudi Arabia as untouchable.

The MB and the Salafists have the same goals vis-à-vis the West but the strategies differ. US policy-makers do not seem capable to comprehend this fact. Central to their ideology is the reintroduction of the caliphate, an Islamic super-state governed by  Sharia law that would stretch from the Atlantic to the Pacific as it did during the Islamic imperium.  Terrorism should be viewed as a tactic in asymmetric warfare. It is an equalizer and it is extremely cost effective.

Osama bin-Laden was a Salafist. After his death, there was attrition among the Al Qaeda leadership in Afghanistan/Pakistan but the Salafist ideology he advanced continues to thrive. The terrorist organization he co-founded, Al Qaeda, continues to operate in different forms in many parts of the world. Bin Laden issued two fatwas (1996, 1998) declaring the war against the US. His second fatwa called on all Muslims “to kill Americans and their allies, civilians and military, as an individual duty.”  Hence, radical Islam has been at war with America since 1996 but America has not been at war with Radical Islam. Instead, the American response has been some kind of an ineffectual appeasement and lack of leadership under all three US presidents (Clinton, Bush and Obama), despite a number of severe blowbacks. The American public has been the victim of this flawed policy.

Another big success of Salafists has been the radicalization of Muslims in the West thereby creating home-grown threats either by offering training outside the US or via the internet. There were 12 home-grown terrorist plots in the US in 2010, compared to 1 in 2005. The New York Police Department (NYPD) has been in the forefront of fighting home-grown terrorism. The NYPD thwarted as many as 16 terrorist plots on the city since 9/11.

The Clinton Era

The Salafist networks flourished during the Clinton era (1993-2001). Mansoor Ijaz, a Pakistani-American and a Clinton supporter, characterized it as: “their counter-terrorism policies fueled the rise of Osama bin-Laden from an ordinary man to a Hydra-like monster.” Clinton’s lack of resolve to fight terrorism and turning a “blind-eye” to Salafism amounted to pussyfooting and appeasement. Bin Laden capitalized. On Clinton’s watch over 10,000 terrorists were trained in Al Qaida (Al Qaeda) training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan, while only 29 terrorists were captured. On Clinton’s watch Al Qaeda and its affiliates planned many and executed several successfully against the US including: 1993 World Trade Center bombings killing 6 and injuring over 1,000; the 1993 killing of 18 American servicemen in Somalia, the averted 1995 project Bojinka, which called for planting bombs on 11 US airliners; 1995 Riyadh Saudi National Guard Station killing 5 and injuring 30 Americans; the 1996 Khobar Towers attack killing 19 Americans; the 1998 attack on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania killing 224 (12 Americans); and 2000 attack on USS destroyer Cole killing 17 US servicemen.

Several other salient events of far reaching consequences took place in the Balkans, particularly in Bosnia and Kosovo. US condoned and covertly assisted jihad in Bosnia, which enabled Bin Laden to implement his master plan to establish a base of operations in Europe against Al Qaeda’s true enemy: the US. Bosnia became the direct springboard for 9/11. The US empowered Al Qaeda’s Al Mujahid Brigade in Bosnia. Members of this brigade played pivotal roles in both 9/11 and the Madrid bombings. 3,000 New York residents lost their lives due to these misguided policies. After turning Bosnia into an Iranian, Wahhabist and Al Qaeda terrorist haven, Clinton decided to support “good terrorists” in the Serbian provinces of Kosovo and Metohija, i.e. the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) narco-terrorists initially linked to Al Qaeda. In addition, the Clinton administration cultivated relations with other groups known for terrorist violence, e.g. the Palestinian Liberation Organization in Palestine and the Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland, thus setting examples for counter-terrorism policies.

It appears that Clinton’s lack of resolve vis-à-vis bin Laden was in part due to his Islamophilia.  In the 2001 speech at the Georgetown University he said that Muslims in the Middle East might hate America less if only they understood how much the Clinton administration had done for Islam. “Most Muslims in in the Middle East, I’ll guarantee you, don’t know the last time we used our military power was to protect poor Muslims in Bosnia and Kosovo.” He also referred to atrocities committed by crusaders. So Clinton decided to bomb a small Orthodox Christian nation called Serbia, US ally in both WWI and WWII, in order to appease the Islamic world.

The Bush-43 Era

As a result of his election and 9/11, the foreign policy of the world’s only superpower has been managed by a small clique of so called neo-conservatives (neocons).  After 9/11 the neocons saw a unique opportunity equivalent to the late 1940s, when the US first engaged the Soviet Union in the Cold War. There were two regime changes in Afghanistan and Iraq as a result of the Bush counter-terrorist strategy with explicit endorsement of a preemptive war doctrine. In contrast to the 1940s, the US has been by and large perceived as an aggressor, as an imperialist nation, which made the talk of democracy come across as a blind bid for American supremacy.

Until 9/11 the Bush administration viewed bin Laden as a “little terrorist,” not a strategic threat and hence no sense of urgency in dealing with Al Qaeda. On the night of 9/11 Bush wrote in his diary: “The Pearl Harbor of the 20th century took place today…We think it is bin Laden.”  In his address to the nation he said: “We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them.”  The neocons had already put Saddam Hussein’s coordinates in the computer and they wanted to attack Iraq irrespective of who was responsible for 9/11. There was no link between Saddam and 9/11 so Bush chose to attack Afghanistan first, a softer target. The so called war on terror was launched. It was executed as Pax Americana and it has resulted in loss of some 7,000 American lives, about 50,000 maimed and it is costing the nation five trillion dollars, a large fraction of the existing $16.8 trillion national debt.

Iraq was a secular Muslim authoritarian country as opposed to the Islamic Republic like Iran or the authoritarian Saudi Kingdom with its Wahhabism. The Christians were protected and even held high government positions, which is unthinkable in countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan, Egypt, etc. Hence, it could be argued that Bush invaded the wrong country. Seventeen out of the 21 9/11 terrorists were Saudis. The Bush administration couldn’t have done more to enhance the threat of terrorism. It gave birth to Al Qaeda in Iraq. This writer attended a panel discussion at the UCSD dedicated to the tenth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. The panelists presented two studies attempting to quantify the number of Iraqi fatalities since the invasion. The numbers varied between 600,000 and 1.2 million. The war has advanced Islamism and Al Qaeda influence in the world. On Bush’s watch spectacular terrorist acts were staged such as those in Bali, Indonesia, Madrid and London. Millions of Muslims worldwide were angered not because of the democratic way of life in the US, as Bush had asserted, but because of policies resulting in killing and torturing their own brethren.

Incomplete Obama Era

With the election of President Obama Islamophilia has reached new heights in the US as illustrated in his famous 2009 Cairo speech. America’s #1 Islamophile characterized the Muslim call to prayers “the prettiest sound on earth.” In his speeches he praises and glorifies the Koran. He talked about the civilization debt to Islam. He asserted that Islam is an important part of promoting peace. He says that “America is no longer a Christian nation…Islam is a part of America’s story….America will never be at war with Islam”  (not withstanding that the Afghan war has become Obama’s war). He doesn’t seem to understand that the war in Afghanistan, now his war, like Bush’s war in Iraq, fans the flames for more jihads round the world and thousands of suicide bombers. During his visit to India, an Indian girl asked him to define jihad. He disguised the real meaning of jihad. It is unfortunate that another Indian girl didn’t ask him to explain why over 20,000 terrorist attacks since 9/11 were perpetrated by followers of radical Islam.

During his presidency he has appointed two devout Muslims to Homeland Security posts. He cannot conceive a paradigm in which Muslims can be evil perpetrators. The words “terror,”  “terrorist” and “radical Islam” appears to be banned in his administration.  Bill O’Reilly, of the Fox News, suggested that Obama would not use radical Islam term even if subjected to water-boarding.

In 2009, a joint terrorism task force overseen by the FBI concluded that Major Nidal Malik Hasan, a US born Palestinian Muslim, wasn’t linked to terrorism. Major Hasan after shouting “Alahu Akbar” (Allah is Great) murdered 13 people at Fort Hood and wounded two dozen. The 9/11 hijackers also yelled “Allah Akbar” as they were crashing their planes into the World Trade Center. The mainstream media and the White House were puzzled about what Hasan’s motives could have been!! Obama said that he was at a loss for an explanation. In the first five days after the Fort Hood massacre, 85% of the news stories did not mention the words “terror” and “terrorists.” Many continued to paint Islam as a “religion of peace” and marginalized critics of jihad as suffering from “Islamophobia.” Robert Spencer wrote: “Political correctness has the media and government in a stranglehold.” To this writer and many others, radical Islam is a totalitarian ideology (like communism) more so than a religion. As a matter of fact radical Islam is masquerading as religion.

Libyan president Muammar al-Gaddafi gave up his former ambitions of being a terrorist sponsor and an owner of nuclear weapons in order to become an African leader. Also, he allowed oil companies to operate in Libya. Nonetheless, Obama went along with his secretary of state Hillary Clinton’s push to remove Gaddafi from power.  Removal of Gaddafi left Libya in a state of chaos with war lords and terrorists in charge and with many Islamist fighters moving to Mali thereby causing another battlefield. Benghazi and the 9/11 anniversary fiasco, with the death of the US ambassador and three other Americans became another blowback.

Boston Marathon Horror

At this writing a number of theories offer tentative explanations for the root causes of this latest example of Islamist terrorism. One of them is that the suspects Tsarnaev brothers of Chechen origin from Dagestan were self-radicalized in conjunction with their mother Zubeidat. The younger brother Dzhokhar, who survived the shootings, told the interrogators that he and his brother used bomb-making instructions found in Inspire, an online Al Qaeda magazine and that he was driven to detonate a bomb packed with ball bearings and nails to “defend Islam” and protest US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Major Hasan protested also the same US actions in his Ft Hood massacre. The Obama administration sent a federal judge to Mirandize Dzhokhar. Obama, who has pledged to fight against “negatives stereotypes of Islam,” warned that Americans shouldn’t jump into any conclusions.

There are many examples of self-radicalization in the US and Western European countries among Muslim immigrants allowed to become residents or even citizens. Self-radicalizations among Kosovo Albanian and Bosnian Muslim immigrants are well-known. Here are three examples. Betim Kaziu, whose parents are Kosovo Albanians, was sentenced in March of 2012 to 27 years in prison for traveling to the Middle East in a failed bid to join Al Qaeda and avenge the abuse of Muslims by killing American troops. In 2007 federal authorities busted the so-called Fort Dix Six before they could launch a murderous attack on a US military installation. Four out of six were ethnic Albanians from Kosovo (one of them was a sniper in Kosovo) and Macedonia. Three of the four were brothers. The institutionalized political correctness approach was used by the mainstream media in order to cover up their identity of being Albanian conspirators. In March of 2011, two US airmen were killed and two injured in front of Terminal 2 of the second continental at Frankfurt Airport. US forces were on their way to Afghanistan. The perpetrator was a Kosovo Albanian named Arif Uka, who was born and raised in Germany. He also yelled “Allah Akbar.”

The FBI’s bomb experts, analyzing remnants of both bombs which exploded near the marathon finish line concluded that the bomb makers likely had additional training or expertise because in part they deviated from the Inspire recipes. The older brother Tamerlan, slain in the shootings, made a six-month trip to Dagestan, which borders Chechnya. He must have received additional training there? Russian Izvestia reported that they obtained documents from the Georgian Interior Ministry suggesting that Tamerlan Tsarnaev went through a Georgian training seminar with Georgian and American instructors. The organization in question is called the “Caucasus Fund,” which cooperates with the American NGO “Jamestown.” These two organizations recruit people from the Northern Caucasus to “work in the interest of the US and Georgia. One of their tasks is to inculcate young men from the Caucasus with Salafist ideology and direct them against Russia.

The Russian officials are claiming that Tamerlan met several times with Mansur Makhmud Nidal, suspected jihad recruiter in Dagestan. The venue was a mosque in Makhachkala, capital of Dagestan, known for its adherence to Salafism. Nidal died last year in a firefight with the Russian authorities. His other likely contact, William Plotnikov from Canada, was slain two months later. Tamerlan was in the region at the time of both slayings, but left Russia for the US three days later after the second one. He left without picking the Russian passport he applied for. A Russian official said: “He intended to join the fighters but lost his contacts. In the end he picked an easier enemy in Boston.”

The Russians know more than anybody else about the Islamist terrorist activities in the Caucasus. The Chechen terrorists, linked to Al Qaeda, had committed a series of most brutal terrorist acts in history including the siege of the Beslan School in 2004. After yelling Allahu Akbar they murdered 350 including many children shot in the back. Beslan was summarized as child rape, torture, enforced urine drinking, sexual sadism and Islamic ritual murder. Stella Jatras wrote: “To call them animals would be an insult to the animal kingdom.” Former FBI agent Colleen Rowley—a 2002 Time Person of the Year— pointed out that the neocons backed Chechen terrorists as a way to challenge Russia. Many distinguished neocons signed up as Chechnya’s “friends.” John Laughland wrote that the leading group which pleads the Chechen cause is the American Committee for Peace in Chechnya (ACPC).

The Izvestia story, if corroborated, could give some credibility to the DEBKA file story alleging that the Tsarnaev brothers were double agents, hired by the US and Saudi intelligence – thereby decoyed the US into a terrorist trap. The DEBKA file story, based on counterterrorism and intelligence sources, suggest that the objective was to penetrate the Wahhabi jihadist networks which, helped by Saudi financial institutions had spread into Russian Caucasia. Instead the two former Chechens betrayed their mission and went secretly over to radical Islamist networks. The Saudis feared that their involvement would come to light when their student was questioned about their involvement in the bombings while in a Boston hospital. The Saudi foreign minister flew to Washington, in the middle of the Boston Marathon crisis, to meet with president Obama and his national security adviser.

The DEBKA file report concludes with four questions that should top the interrogators agenda: a) At what date did the Tsarnaev brothers turn coat and decide to work for Caucasian Wahhabi networks?; b) Did they round up recruits for those networks in the US—particularly, among the Caucasian and Saudi communities?; c) What was the exact purpose of the Boston Marathon bombings and their aftermath at MIT in Watertown?; d) Are any more terrorist attacks in the works in other American cities?

In the interest of the safety of the American people the ongoing investigations should focus on answering these four questions. In addition, president Obama should appoint a Boston Marathon Commission similar to the 9/11 Commission. He might be reluctant to do this therefore public pressure should be applied especially from the 282 injured people in the Boston Marathon horror.

Minutes before closure of this piece the author read about the phone call between presidents Obama and Putin in which they agreed to boost anti-terror cooperation. It is about time for Washington to realize that the US and Russia should be allies against the same enemy: radical Islam.

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD is the author of three books and over 100 articles on world affairs.

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Boutros Hussein and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The Prime Minister of Turkey, Recep Erdogan, is once more embroiling himself with more rhetoric towards a regional nation. This time his comments are aimed at Israel but it could easily have been aimed at Armenia, Cyprus, Iraq, Iran, or Syria. Indeed, recently the same Erdogan was accusing France about issues related to the Kurdish community. In truth, Erdogan is a very destabilizing factor to the entire Middle East and parts of the Balkans because he just can’t help creating tensions with others.

John Kerry, the new US Secretary of State, may witness a charm offensive from Erdogan because he is in the “doghouse” once more. Yet, with Erdogan he is very difficult to predict. Either way, the issue of Syria is the main agenda of Kerry’s visit to Turkey even if the Israeli issue pops up. However, given his recent stance alongside the British towards Syria; then Kerry will probably be asking all the wrong questions.

After all, just like the spat between Israel and Turkey, two nations involved in forcing people from their land; then Armenians, Assyrians, Kurds, Palestinians and Orthodox Cypriots respectively, must be cringing at the hypocrisy of both Erdogan and Netanyahu who is the current leader of Israel. Indeed, Turkey still denies the holocaust of the Armenians, Assyrians, and Greek community, which took place in the earlier part of the twentieth century. If nations desire to mention the “holocaust question” related to what the Turks did, then they are bullied and face missing out on important economic deals.

If America, the United Kingdom, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey, are so concerned about human rights and ethnic and religious cleansing; then surely they should solve older issues before destabilizing new nations. Of course, this never enters the equation. Therefore, the Palestinian question remains unanswered; the cleansing of Orthodox Christians in northern Cyprus and the continuing occupation of this land by Turkey goes unanswered; thousands of Kurdish villages destroyed by the armed forces of Turkey goes unanswered; and of course a plethora of other important questions. After all, in Saudi Arabia all apostates face the death penalty and Qatar and Saudi Arabia oppose all notions of democracy because they are feudal monarchies.

This reality means that Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, other nations throughout the Gulf, alongside America, France, and the United Kingdom; are not exactly focused on human rights and other areas related to religious freedom, democracy, and freeing ethnic groups, which have been cleansed from their land. If they were, then northern Cyprus, the Palestinian question and a plethora of other factors would have been addressed adequately. Therefore, for the people in power this was never an issue and this is where the Syrian question comes into play and the same applies to the hypocrisy of the mass media.

After all, the destabilization of Syria is based on self-interests because the nations involved in this care zilch about the values that the mass media likes to espouse. It doesn’t take rocket science to know that Saudi Arabia cares nothing about democracy, religious freedom, and the rights of women because all these factors are crushed within this nation. Similarly, how can Qatar care about democracy and equality before the law when this nation doesn’t tolerate the opening-up of the political system? Likewise, if Turkey is so concerned about the abuse of power then surely it is time for this nation to pull out of northern Cyprus and to stop arresting writers on flimsy charges.

Kerry, of course, will not touch on any of these issues. Equally alarming, he probably will not raise the reality that Turkey is a conduit for Al-Qaeda terrorists and a plethora of other terrorist organizations. For example, it is clear that many Chechen Islamists and others from the Caucasus and Central Asia are utilizing the countless rat lines in Turkey in order to enter northern Syria. Yet, despite September 11 which was done by mainly Saudi nationals, this issue doesn’t appear to concern either the Americans or the British. After all, it is abundantly clear that Islamist terrorists are obtaining support from the friends of America and the United Kingdom and this notably applies to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

This reality also means that America, Turkey, and the United Kingdom, care little about the repercussions for the Russian Federation and other nations like Iraq. After all, Sunni Islamist terrorists will utilize their new weapons and money against Iraq with immediate effect because of the geographic factor. In the long-term Islamists from Chechnya, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, will use their new contacts and material gains in order to use in Chechnya, Dagestan and other areas related to the Russian Federation and Central Asia. Despite this, the political elites in Washington and London are allowing Ankara, Doha, and Riyadh, to support sectarianism, terrorism and sedition against the Syrian government.

Indeed, Kerry should be visiting Iraq and speaking to the leader of this nation because the Iraqi people still continue to suffer at the hands of Al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist groups. Likewise, Turkey often violates northern Iraq in Kurdish areas and the same applies to ignoring the central government of this nation when it comes to important energy deals.

The Prime Minister of Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki, stated that “In case the opposition wins, there will be a civil war in Lebanon, divisions in Jordan and a sectarian war in Iraq. This will create a new haven for al-Qaeda which will destabilize the region.”

Hadi al-Amiri, the Iraqi Minister of Transport, also rebuked the enemies of Syria for destabilizing the region. He stated that “Ankara and Doha are supporting the armed opposition and arming jihadist groups in Syria, including Jabhat al-Nusra that is linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq.”

Hadi al-Amiri also noted that the funding, military, and terrorist rat lines, linking Qatar and Turkey with Al-Qaeda in order to topple the government of Syria, would also impinge directly on Iraq.  He made this clear when he stated that “Turkey and Qatar’s support for the armed opposition in Syria amounts to a declaration of war on Iraq, which would suffer the consequences of a conflict that (is) becoming increasingly sectarian next to it.”

Therefore, Kerry should be asking Erdogan why a NATO member state is allowing Al-Qaeda and other terrorists from various nations to utilize the border areas between Turkey and Syria. Similarly, Kerry should be showing more concern for Iraq, Lebanon and the Russian Federation because various Islamist factions have other agenda’s. However, despite all the peace efforts by the Russian Federation, it would appear that Kerry will be asking all the wrong questions – just like the British.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Murad Makhmudov and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

United Kingdom

It is odious for the British government to claim that you have to support “a so-called third force” in Syria, while the secular government of this nation is fighting international jihadists, sectarianism and forces of sedition. The same equivalent would be to attack the central government of Afghanistan and Iraq, while both nations face a deadly Islamist insurgency. However, the United Kingdom wants to increase the pressure on Syria by arming “a third force” while Syria is being attacked by various Islamist factions.

The British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, desires to up the ante against the government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Yet, it is obvious that Islamist terrorists will fill the vacuum and gain from weakening the government of Syria. It would be like inviting Al-Qaeda to make the most while government forces fight “a third force” which is controlled by outside nations. This would lead to more sectarianism, fresh persecution of religious minorities and more brutal terrorist attacks.

Also, it is abundantly clear that the “troika” of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar, are all responsible to varying degrees for aiding and abetting terrorism, sectarianism and sedition against the government of Syria. However, with these nations being the allies of America, France, and the United Kingdom, when it comes to Syria; then clearly William Hague fully knows that fellow partners are assisting the most militant of Islamist terrorist factions in Syria. Therefore, does the United Kingdom wish to peddle “two factions” within the many proxy wars against Syria – and then distance the British government from the “Islamist terrorist angle” if things go to plan by claiming that the United Kingdom “supported progressive forces?”

If America and the United Kingdom were against international terrorism and Islamist factions which have no qualms in planting car bombs and killing religious minorities; then surely the political elites in Washington and London would have put pressure on Ankara, Doha, and Riyadh, to stop their policies. Yet this is clearly not the case because more international jihadists are entering Syria. Likewise, greater military hardware is being given to various internal and external terrorist factions.

Chechen and Caucasus Islamists

In many video footages of the crisis in Syria it is clear that some anti-Syrian government factions are amateurish to the extreme. Yet in other video footages it is abundantly obvious that covert operatives, hired mercenaries, well trained international jihadists, the Chechen and Caucasus angle, and the role of murky intelligence operatives are involved. Similarly, the “professional angles” are all focused on high level operations aimed at destroying the infrastructure and assassinating important individuals which support the government of Syria.

However, why are Chechen and Caucasus Islamists entering Syria in greater numbers given the situation in the Caucasus? After all, the government of President Ramzan Kadyrov is clearly in the ascendancy against Chechen Islamists. Therefore, why are Chechen Islamists flocking to Syria when “their jihad” at home continues to falter compared with the past? Also, why are other Islamists from various regions of the Caucasus entering Syria because you have ongoing problems in many areas, for example in Dagestan (Daghestan) – therefore, which forces are behind this?

On the (http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/) Kavkaz Center website it is stated that “Mujahideen from different regions and countries are fighting in Syria as a part of Kataeb al-Muhajireen/Muhajirun, or Brigade of Emigrants. The main forces consist of Mujahideen from Caucasus Emirate, Crimea, Russia, Tatarstan, and some of CIS countries, as well as of Arab Mujahideen, including Syrians.”

According to the Kavkaz Center it is reported that Chechens and other Islamists from the Caucasus region recently attacked a military airfield called Neirub. The information provided is that 36 Islamist militants mainly from the Caucasus were killed. Despite this, it is claimed that the operation was a success because they managed to overrun Neirub.

Names like Umar Shishani (Abu Omar al-Chechen) keep on propping-up and Chechens and other Caucasus Islamists are said to be located in various parts of Aleppo. Obviously, for the government of Syria this provides further evidence that they are fighting international jihadists from an array of different nations. Also, it is obvious that militant Islamists will bring their sectarian hatred with them and commit all types of atrocities against various religious minorities in Syria. Despite this, voices in London, Paris, and Washington, have mainly been muted. After all, they fully know that it is their allies in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar, which are sponsoring terrorism, sectarianism, sedition, mercenaries, and funding covert operatives.

Russian Federation and Chechnya

President Ramzan Kadyrov of Chechnya, who is loyal to the Russian Federation, commented in 2009 that “We’re fighting in the mountains with the American and English intelligence agencies. They are fighting not against Kadyrov, not against traditional Islam; they are fighting against the sovereign Russian state.”

He further states that “The West is interested to cut off the Caucasus from Russia….Now they strike a blow against Putin and Russia. Chechnya and Dagestan are weak, vulnerable parts of the Russian state.”

Kadyrov also comments in the Reuters article about the role of the CIA and MI6. He states that “There was a terrorist Chitigov, he worked for the CIA. He had U.S. citizenship…When we killed him, I was in charge of the operation and we found a U.S. driving licence and all the other documents were also American.”

It must be stated that Turkey and Georgia are known to have many rat lines which link these two nations to very murky dealings. Also, Turkey and Georgia are both firmly within the American and British camp. Therefore, the Russian Federation must be very concerned about the Chechen and Caucasus Islamist angle in Syria because major economic incentives must have been given to these elements. Similarly, with Dagestan and other areas seeing a growing Islamist angle – for example, even in Tatarstan moderate clerics are not out of the reach of international jihadists. Then surely Spetsnaz and other special forces from the Russian Federation should do something to counter the growing presence of Islamists from the Caucasus who are entering Syria. This applies to covert operations, to increase the military power of the armed forces of Syria and to provide greater intelligence work to the government of Syria. If no measures are taken, then this will come back to haunt the Russian Federation.

In another article by Modern Tokyo Times about Syria it was stated that “Similarly, it is possible that the CIA and Ankara are working in coordination with other operatives. Other intelligence services in the United Kingdom and France could also be involved in certain areas because it is known that many operatives from various nations played a more important role in Libya than was ever stated. While the armed forces of Libya were relatively weak and minor in comparison to Syria, you clearly have many ratlines linking many aspects of both conflicts. This not only applies to the nations involved and the media war but also to the covert nature of events; whereby in recent months more military installations in Syria have come under attack despite being outside the nature of the conflict.”

Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal, stated (November 23, 2012) that “The Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, an al Qaeda-linked jihadist group that is fighting Bashir al Assad’s regime in Syria, has claimed credit for yet another suicide attack as well as another joint operation with Chechen fighters.”

“Al Nusrah claimed the attacks in a series of three statements released on jihadist websites on Nov. 21. The statements were translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.”

“The suicide attack was executed by “the knight Abu ‘Aun al Shamali,” who used a car bomb “laden with 2 tons of explosives.” The statement was accompanied by pictures of the car bomb as well as the explosion at the hospital. Al Nusrah then detonated a car bomb parked outside the hospital and launched “an armed attack by a group of mujahideen on what remained of the headquarters.”

Other operations clearly have “a murky angle” which lies outside of the conflict in Syria. This applies to Chechen Islamists attacking other military installations despite the objectives being outside of the main theater of the conflict. Likewise, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) is showing its proxy nature because tensions with the Kurds have deliberately been stirred on the auspices of Turkey. After all, Damascus is in a different direction therefore the Chechen angle and the FSA are involved in fighting for proxies.

Turkey and the Russian Federation

If you look at a map of the Middle East and the Caucasus region then it isn’t difficult to understand why Chechen Islamists and others from the Caucasus region have “a free hand.” This applies to the linkage of Chechnya, Georgia, Turkey, and then entering northern Syria; whereby military hardware, operation guidelines and so forth are awaiting Chechen and Caucasus Islamists. Like previously mentioned both Georgia and Turkey are within the American and British camp and clearly many parts of northern Syria are out of the control of central forces in Syria. In saying that, it is remarkable that no major city belongs to the FSA and array of various Islamist factions. After all, the US and its allies can’t control vast areas of Afghanistan and clearly the military capability of Syria is much lower than NATO powers.

The Foreign Minister of Syria, Walid al-Moualem, stated (October 2012) that America, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey “clearly induce and support terrorism in Syria with money, weapons and foreign fighters.”

“Under the pretext of concepts such as the ‘Responsibility to Protect,’ drums of war are beaten, and sedition and unrest are spreading and damaging the structure of national societies…..Worst of all is to see permanent members of the Security Council, who launched wars under the pretext of combating terrorism, now support terrorism in my country.” 

The government of Turkey under Erdogan had hoped to obtain “a no-fly zone” which would have been supervised by NATO. On top of this, the Erdogan government had hoped that Aleppo would have fallen to the FSA and various Islamist factions. This appeared feasible because of the closeness of Aleppo to Turkey. However, despite all the covert operations, countless ratlines, infiltration of international jihadists, covert operatives, increasing the military hardware, and other important areas – the armed forces of Syria have managed to prevent this.

On the Pan Armenia website (Feb 16, 2013) it is stated that “According to the state-run news agency SANA, in two identical letters addressed on Friday, Feb 15, to head of the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary-General highlighting Turkey’s subversive role in the Syrian crisis, the ministry said that the Turkish government has sought to obstruct the implementation of the political program announced by President Bashar al-Assad for solving the crisis in Syria, and the ensuing measures undertaken by the Syrian government for that end.”

”Turkey has turned its territories into a stamping ground for hosting, training, funding, arming and smuggling armed terrorist groups, mainly al-Qaeda and Jabhat al-Nusra and other terrorist groups, into Syria,” the letters said, adding ”and it publicly supports and justifies their destructive practices of killing and methodical vandalism of infrastructure and public and private property.”

”According to international law, the rules governing international relations and good neighborliness, the Turkish government’s conduct constitutes a flagrant violation of the international law,” the ministry added. The ministry affirmed that in so doing, the Turkish government violates the UN charter which states that “all Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”

Overall

In modern day Syria this nation is awash with international jihadists and covert operatives, which are intent on various different objectives. The free movement of Islamist jihadists from Chechnya and the Caucasus region should worry both Syria and the Russian Federation. Clearly, this reality is based on the Georgia and Turkey angle alongside both nations being allies of America and the United Kingdom respectively.

It is ironic that Al-Qaeda and various Islamist groups in Syria are waging jihad against the last major independent nation in the Arabic speaking world. After all, if Al-Qaeda and Islamist jihadists are so intent on fighting the West and Israel – then it certainly doesn’t look like it in Syria. On the contrary, in the north you have NATO Turkey and in the south you have Israel – in the middle, so to speak, you have independent Syria. However, international jihadists are not attacking NATO Turkey or Israel; instead, on the auspices of outside powers, they are intent on crushing Syria which is the last major independent and secular nation in the Arabic speaking world.

The proxy nature of events is unfolding all the time in Syria. After all, many FSA factions have been attacking the Kurds in the north (in the wrong direction of Damascus). Meanwhile, the experienced nature of Chechen and Caucasus Islamists are being used in order to destroy the military infrastructure of Syria. Also, like stated above in the last paragraph, it is ironic that NATO Turkey and Israel have nothing to fear from Al-Qaeda jihadists and other Islamist factions. Therefore, it is imperative that nations like the Russian Federation supply adequate military arms to Syria alongside providing intelligence information. After all, Chechen Islamists will use their gains against the Russian Federation in the long-term and the same applies to Dagestan and other parts of this nation.

Syria is the last major independent and secular nation in the Arabic speaking world and today this nation faces an array of ratlines. Some nations like the United Kingdom want to strengthen “a third force” based on the objectives of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. However, the majority of nations in the European Union oppose the United Kingdom despite this bloc being negative towards Syria.

Sadly, for the people of Syria they are being caught up “in a confused proxy war” whereby many nations and forces are involved. All and sundry continues to be thrown at the government of Bashar al-Assad and clearly more powerful military hardware and the growing international jihadist angle are deeply problematic. It is time for the friends of Syria to increase their support of this nation and for neutral nations to speak out against the terrorist, sectarian and seditious rat lines. Also, it is essential that the Russian Federation responds to the Chechen and Caucasus Islamist terrorist angle because clearly these jihadists will manipulate what they gain in Syria, in order to use against the Russian Federation in the long term. This applies to smuggling new military hardware into the Caucasus region, developing new terrorist networks and funding Islamist indoctrination in order to sow the seeds of hatred.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/09/24/idUSLO277814

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/11/al_nusrah_front_clai_8.php

http://www.panarmenian.net/eng/news/146183/

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Murad Makhmudov and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

International Sunni Islamists are flocking to Syria in increasing numbers and the nations they are coming from keeps on growing in diversity. Some so-called jihadists are naïve and only united in their hatred towards other sects in Islam. However, the Chechen angle is worrying because of their experience and tenaciousness. Also, given the current instability in several parts of the Caucasus, then why are Chechens involving themselves in Syria?

It is known that Turkey and Georgia have given either tacit approval of safety to Chechen Islamists in the past, or both nations have been involved in covert operations aimed at the Russian Federation. Either way, it is clear that Chechen Islamists were given breathing space in parts of Turkey and Georgia. Georgia could claim that the internal convulsions which continue to cause problems in several parts of this nation, is a valid reason why they couldn’t prevent Chechen Islamist intrigues in the past. Yet, Turkey can’t provide any such excuse and given the nature of this nations support for sectarianism, terrorism and sedition within Syria, then clearly the “Chechen connection” may be based on the intrigues of Ankara.

Similarly, it is possible that the CIA and Ankara are working in coordination with other operatives. Other intelligence services in the United Kingdom and France could also be involved in certain areas because it is known that many operatives from various nations played a more important role in Libya than was ever stated. While the armed forces of Libya were relatively weak and minor in comparison to Syria, you clearly have many ratlines linking many aspects of both conflicts. This not only applies to the nations involved and the media war but also to the covert nature of events, whereby in recent months more military installations in Syria have come under attack despite being outside the nature of the conflict.

Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal, comments that “The Al Nusrah Front for the People of the Levant, an al Qaeda-linked jihadist group that is fighting Bashir al Assad’s regime in Syria, has claimed credit for yet another suicide attack as well as another joint operation with Chechen fighters.”

“Al Nusrah claimed the attacks in a series of three statements released on jihadist websites on Nov. 21. The statements were translated by the SITE Intelligence Group.”

“The suicide attack was executed by “the knight Abu ‘Aun al Shamali,” who used a car bomb “laden with 2 tons of explosives.” The statement was accompanied by pictures of the car bomb as well as the explosion at the hospital. Al Nusrah then detonated a car bomb parked outside the hospital and launched “an armed attack by a group of mujahideen on what remained of the headquarters.”

Chechen Islamists and Al Nusrah aimed the latest suicide attack against the Syrian armed forces, which were allegedly using a hospital for cover in Aleppo. Of course, for Sunni Islamists it is clear that killing journalists, minorities, car bombings, anyone connected with the government of Syria and daily carnage is “fair game” to these brutal terrorists.

In October this year it was clear that the Chechen element was involved in a major operation aimed at a Syrian air defense base in the region of Aleppo. When images emerged of a Scud missile base being overrun by Islamists it had all the hallmarks of Chechens fighters and covert operatives from the “third force.” The aim was based on the objectives of Turkey and other powerful players which don’t want their hands to be connected with this operation. Therefore, the Al Nusrah Front and Free Syrian Army (FSA) which also participated in the attack were mere “covers” for the real culprits.

The Russian Federation should be very worried about this angle because in recent times several Sufi Muslim leaders have been killed in Dagestan and Tatarstan by Sunni Islamist terrorists. Not only this, these new ratlines could trigger more bloodshed in the Caucasus region and in other parts of the Russian Federation. At the same time, the situation in Chechnya could be reignited in the future if bases become obtainable alongside fresh armaments and capital.

According to RIA it was stated about the Chechen terrorist Doku Umarov that “The Imarat Kavkaz head, Umarov, has been maintaining close ties with Georgian intelligence agencies and coordinated deliveries of explosives to Sochi, where they were to be kept in special caches,” the anti-terror committee said.”

“During a special operation in Abkhazia on May 4-5, Russian special services discovered ten caches containing arms, explosives, ammo and other illegal weapons, including three portable anti-aircraft missile complexes, Igla and Strela, two anti-tank guided missiles with launchers, a mortar with 36 shells, a flamethrower, 29 grenade launchers, 12 IEDs and topographic maps, among others.”

It was also stated on Pravda.ru that “Moscow asked Turkey to shut down various Chechen funds and organization that are located on the Turkish territory. Russia mentioned one of the most notorious one of them – Association of Chechen and Caucasian Unity. It is also worth mentioning that the terrorists, who seized hundreds of hostages in the Moscow music theatre, called Turkey several times. This was confirmed both by former hostages (terrorists used their phones) and by the interception of phone calls. Nevertheless, it will be very hard for Moscow to make Turkey fulfill such a request. Turkey has been rendering that support on a top level.”

“The mentioned association has a financial division – the Fund of the Chechen and Caucasian Unity.  This fund reportedly receives up to $130 million every year from various fundamentalist organizations (in the Middle East, on the Arabian Peninsula, as well as in Pakistan, Bosnia and Albania) to support terrorists.”

The sad reality is that secular Syria is being torn apart by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, France, the United Kingdom and other important players. It is known that the CIA is involved in murky dealings but clearly you have major differences in Washington which have come to the fore after American personnel were killed in Libya. Yet old habits die hard and clearly the Chechen link with two friends of America does raise important questions.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2012/11/al_nusrah_front_clai_8.php

http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_05_10/74299416/

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Jibril Khoury and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The Russian Federation in the Caucasus region continues to be challenged by Islamism whereby two powerful forces are at play. One applies to the Islamist dream of dismantling parts of the Russian Federation in order to impose Sharia Islamic law and unify various different ethnic groups which are mainly Muslim. The other applies to destroying indigenous Islam and transplanting it with imported ideas from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Chechnya may now be over the worse of the brutal insurgency which witnessed fluctuating alliances. However, can the Russian Federation claim that the cultural influence of this nation still runs through the veins of Chechnya? Or does Chechnya resemble an Islamist state being ruled by a firm Chechen grip which remains loyal to Moscow – but which is drifting culturally outside of the grip of the Russian Federation?

In Dagestan this issue is very real alongside many other major important issues. The multi-ethnicity of Dagestan which is overwhelmingly Muslim is extremely diverse. However, the Islamist agenda is too crush nationalist forces, defeat indigenous Islam and to sever the control of Moscow. Therefore, a raging insurgency continues in Dagestan whereby central forces are faced by Islamists on several fronts.

Chechnya once was the main focus of attention throughout the restive Caucasus region. However, in modern times it is clear that Dagestan will dictate how parts of the region will be governed. Dagestan isn’t witnessing the intensive bloodshed which flowed at the height of the Chechen crisis. Despite this, the insurgency continues to threaten the stability of Dagestan and the entire region.

President Magomedsalam Magomedov of Dagestan hinted in late August of the need to establish self-defense units. This was debated during an important meeting with the Coordination Council for Law Enforcement in Dagestan and the Security Council of Dagestan. It is difficult to believe that the leader of Dagestan didn’t consult with powerful players in Moscow and within various security agencies.

Magomedsalam Magomedov commented that “I think that today we will make the decision to set up, under the auspices of the law enforcement agencies, self-defense units, squads of young people prepared to provide safety, (and) punish those bandits and terrorists.”  This statement clearly implies that the main aim is to fight terrorism within Dagestan followed by criminality which often flows naturally. Yet it remains to be seen how these self-defense groups will work with the Federal Security Service.

Recently in Dagestan Said Efendi Chirkeisky was killed by an Islamist suicide bomber who had been indoctrinated. Said Efendi Chirkeisky was the main Sufi spiritual leader in Dagestan and clearly he opposed Islamism, terrorism and radical forces within Salafi Islam. He had hoped to build bridges but to Islamists he was just an infidel who needed to be taken out of the equation in order to spread more hate, suspicion and fear.

Roman Silantyev told Interfax that “The treacherous practice of negotiating with terrorists should be stopped. A total war must be launched against them, with a particular emphasis on elimination of their abettors. Otherwise, Russia will become a second Iraq.”

Traditional Islam clearly faces deadly Islamist forces whereby the Salafists want to implant their draconian and rigid form of Islam on society. At the same time, in Russian dominated areas surrounding volatile regions it is clear that a growing gap is emerging. Political leaders in Moscow face many competing forces in the Caucasus region. This applies to nationalism, terrorism, Islamization, power of the center, a never ending insurgency, corruption, poverty, cultural issues and outside forces which seek to weaken the Russian Federation.

Mairbek Vatchagaev, The Jamestown Foundation, clearly believes that self-defense forces will be detrimental to Dagestan because of the threat of Balkanization. Therefore, the author states that “Dagestan remains the deadliest territory in the North Caucasus. Two-thirds of the attacks by the North Caucasian armed opposition are launched against the Dagestani authorities and the republican government’s forces. Following the appointment of the new Dagestani rebel emir, who comes from an area that has been dominated by Salafis since 1997, violence, including attacks on the police forces and suicide bombings, will continue. Finally, the establishment of new structures like the personal guard proposed by President Magomedov to fight the insurgents will not change the situation but may further lead to the Balkanization of the North Caucasus whereby personal militias of respective nationalities are entrusted with defending ethnic territories under the guise of terrorism, whether they be Cossacks, Avars, Dargins, Kumyks, or Lezgins.”

Therefore, it is clear that the Russian Federation faces many competing forces and unlike Chechnya, the ethnic angle in Dagestan is much more complex. Currently it appears that Islamists are “on the front foot” in Dagestan but looks can be deceptive. Either way the battle of “the soul of Islam” is being waged in Dagestan and in other parts of the Caucasus region. The same applies to the power and influence of the Russian Federation and if the center can preserve “real power” within the restive Caucasus region.

http://www.kremlin.ru/ - Photo image from the Kremlin

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Murad Makhmudov and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The conflict in Syria may appear to be distant from the lives of American nationals and the same applies to France and the United Kingdom. Yet the national governments of these nations  are all tacitly supporting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) against the government of Syria. However, for the Russian Federation the threat of Islamism is a known nightmare which is eating away at religious pluralism within the Islamic faith. Therefore, the Russian Federation is alarmed by the rise of the FSA in Syria and the various different Sunni Islamist terrorist organizations which are spreading carnage and mayhem.

Recently in Dagestan the Sufi spiritual leader Said Efendi Chirkeisky was killed by a suicide bomber along with a few followers. This happened in late August and the closeness to the recent attack against Sufi leaders in Tatarstan is a clear reminder that Salafism is a potent force within parts of the Russian Federation. Therefore, not surprisingly the Russian Federation is extremely alarmed by major Western powers once more working in collusion with the FSA, al-Qaeda and a whole array of Salafi terrorist organizations.

Dagestan is overwhelmingly Muslim and this part of the Russian Federation is also home to various different ethnic groups. It is reported that over 100,000 mourners turned up on the day of his funeral. This is a huge figure and shows the love of the people towards this respected Sufi cleric who wanted to sow the chord of peace in order to push back the forces of radicalism.

Often the Western media talks about the sectarian nature of the Syrian government. Yet this is over-hyped in order to attack the leadership of Bashar al-Assad and to entice Islamists to enter the fray and act like a proxy of America, Saudi Arabia, France, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Qatar. In reality, the Syrian government took in mainly Sunni Muslim refugees from Iraq and vast numbers of Palestinians. Shia Muslims, Christians and other minorities also fled the carnage which engulfed Iraq and each community was welcomed by the government of Syria.

The mosaic of Syria, Dagestan, Tatarstan and other parts of the Caucasus region which belongs to the Russian Federation, are all threatened by the forces of various Islamist terrorist organizations. At the same time the same Salafi ideology is spreading and turning against indigenous Islam. If the forces of monoculture succeed then various Muslim, Christian and Druze communities which exist in Syria and in parts of the Russian Federation will be threatened.

Aleksei Malashenko, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who is based in Moscow, commented about the death of the Sufi spiritual leader Said Efendi Chirkeisky. He stated that “He constructed good relations with the secular administration. He was very popular. He had pupils among the officials and even some ministers supported him….So, it is a tragedy for Dagestan because it shows a deep split between traditional and nontraditional Islam.”

In 2007 the highly respected spiritual leader survived an attempt upon his life. Despite this, he often criticized the forces of Wahhabism which is threatening the religious landscape because he refused to bow down to the forces of bigotry. Therefore, when news broke out about the suicide attack all mainstream religious leaders throughout the Russian Federation were visibly shocked and angry by such brutal methods. However, in the world of Salafi Islamic extremism then his death was greeted like a sacred duty.

Sadly, attacks also took place recently in Tatarstan against Sufi spiritual leaders. In an earlier article by Modern Tokyo Times it was stated that “Salafi Islamists have recently tried to kill the most influential Muslim leader in Tatarstan. This applies to Ildus Faizov who is a powerful Muslim spiritual leader in this part of the Russian Federation. Recently Ildus Faizov escaped the ravages of a bomb attack against his life on July 19, 2012. Valiulla Yakupov, who was extremely close to Ildus Faizov, sadly didn’t escape on the same day because he was shot dead in Kazan.”

“Ildus Faizov and the late Valiulla Yakupov, prior to the attacks which took place in July this year, were both known for their outspoken comments against the growing menace of radical Islam. Ildus Faizov clearly desires to preserve the co-existence of all religious groups in Tatarstan and to maintain traditional Islam from imported versions which focus on hatred and division. In this sense, the current problem in Tatarstan is a battleground which needs the full support of all religious and secular groups throughout the country. After all, “the soul” of this part of the Russian Federation will impact greatly if the forces of hatred spread their powerbase.”

The most sizeable religious population in Tatarstan is the Islamic faith but Orthodox Christianity is also well represented. Within traditional Islamic religious circles and the Russian Orthodox Church they want to preserve the mosaic of this part of the Russian Federation alongside all secularists and non-believers. Therefore, the growing menace of Salafism poses a threat to both indigenous Islam in Tatarstan and to the followers of Russian Orthodox Christianity.

In Syria the government of Bashar al-Assad is holding out against the brutal meddling of outside nations which are supporting sectarianism, sedition, mercenaries and Islamic terrorists. Also, the media war is inciting hatred towards the Syrian government despite the vast majority of Sunni Muslims remaining loyal to Bashar al-Assad. The combination of major Western powers alongside Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar however is creating a nightmare for the Syrian government.

Terrorist attacks are now part of the landscape in Syria in many parts of this country because of the brutal methods of outside nations. At the same time all minorities reside in fear because of the barbarity of the FSA and various Islamist factions. Beheading minorities and supporters of Bashar al-Assad irrespective of faith is also a daily reality alongside hanging people and systematic torture.

The powers in Moscow are at a loss because Saudi Arabia and Qatar are openly financing terrorists and mercenaries. Turkey likewise is assisting the FSA and clearly terrorists and covert operatives from America, France and the United Kingdom have a free reign in parts of this nation. Alongside this is the media war, economic blockade, international terrorists and a whole array of brutal methods being used against the government of Syria. This also includes the killing of journalists by the FSA and silencing the media of Syria.

Prior to outside nations spreading hatred, sectarianism, terrorism and sedition these forces had been contained throughout the Russian Federation and Syria respectively. Therefore, various different faith communities resided together alongside different ethnic groups. However, now the forces of sectarianism and religious bigotry are spreading their dangerous ideology to the people of the Russian Federation and Syria respectively.

Said Efendi Chirkeisky tried to reach out to the followers of Salafi Islam in Dagestan in order to bridge the gap between normal followers of this faith and the militants which only see Islamic jihad and supremacy. His death is a sad reminder that the forces of evil remain potent in parts of the Russian Federation. Therefore, many dangers lie ahead if this menace is not challenged throughout the Caucasus region and Tatarstan.

In Libya the Salafi fanatics are now destroying Sufi shrines and likewise the same is happening in northern Mali. The bloodshed in Syria is now a conflict which is pitting pluralism against Islamism which seeks to enslave modernity and all forces which support secularism. Northern Mali is witnessing the same Islamist hatred and the same is happening in Libya where traditional Islam is under attack.

The Syrian army is spilling their own blood for all Syrians irrespective of religion in order to preserve the mosaic of this nation and its independence. However, the FSA and various Islamist terrorist organizations desire to destroy the mosaic of Syria and to govern this nation under a strict version of radical Islam. For this reason, it is imperative that Salafism is defeated and the same applies to the foreign policy objectives of America, Saudi Arabia, France, Qatar, Turkey and the United Kingdom which are all backing “the dark forces of history.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iy7njQmDYzE Barbaric crimes of the FSA and Islamists in Syria 

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

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Murad Makhmudov and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The Russian Federation faces many internal problems in the North Caucasus region because of Islamic terrorism, civil wars, nationalism, criminality, kidnappings, and many unsavory factors. Therefore, this instability led to many convulsions whereby military might, guerilla tactics, the rule of fear, terrorism, and kidnapping became all too familiar. This in turn created an atmosphere based on loathing, fear, and massive frustration among various ethnic and religious groups.

Doku (Dokka) Umarov was one of the many prominent Islamists who rose to power based on fear and supporting terrorism in the North Caucasus and throughout the Russian Federation. He knew full well that brutal kidnappings were part and parcel of the brutality unleashed during the first Chechen War. Therefore, the initial war in Chechnya witnessed many massacres and like in all civil wars “no hands were clean.” Indeed, the brutality of Islamists decapitating individuals and torturing not only installed fear, it also meant that a cycle of vengeance and hatred increased to an even higher degree.

The North Caucasus remains volatile and while the crisis in Chechnya is now a low intensity conflict, other areas like Dagestan highlight the frailty of the situation. Also, the current leader of Chechnya may be loyal to the Russian Federation but “the dark shadows” of Ramzan Kadyrov means that fear is part of the apparatus. However, in fairness to Ramzan Kadyrov he had little option because any weakness would have resulted in his death and further bloodshed on a bigger scale.

Ramzan Kadyrov took part in the first Chechen war but in the second Chechen war he followed his father and sided with the Russian Federation and clearly he and Vladimir Putin have a strong relationship. In 2004 his father, President Akhmad Kadyrov, was assassinated and since this time Ramzan Kadyrov began to openly crush the opposition. He also started on a rebuilding process in Chechnya backed by support from central forces in Moscow once the insurgency became less intense.

Ramzan Kadyrov commented after being asked about avenging the death of his father that “I’ve already killed him, whom I ought to kill. And those, who stay behind him, I will be killing them, to the very last of them, until I am myself killed or jailed. I will be killing [them] for as long as I live… Putin is gorgeous. He thinks more about Chechnya than about any other republic [of the Russian Federation]. When my father was murdered, he [Putin] came and went to the cemetery in person. Putin has stopped the war. Putin should be made president for life. Strong rule is needed. Democracy is all but an American fabrication… Russians never obey their laws. Everyone was stealing, and only Khodorkovsky is in jail”

Therefore, Ramzan Kadyrov and Doku Umarov have taken different paths and while one helped in the creation of the biggest mosque in Europe, Doku Umarov continued with supporting terrorism and targeting civilians. Indeed, Doku Umarov proclaimed himself to be the leader of the Caucasus Emirate which only exists in name. However, this aspiration is dreamt about by many Islamists in the region despite the ethnic and religious diversity of this complex part of the Russian Federation.

Recent terrorist attacks with the involvement of Doku Umarov applies to the 2010 Moscow Metro terrorist attack and the 2011 international terrorist attack which happened at Domodedovo International Airport. It is also presumed that internal tensions within the terrorist movement occurred or possible health factors during the same period. This applies to either a power struggle which emerged between himself and Aslambek Vadalov or because of illness, or other natural factors, confusion occurred after Doku Umarov temporarily resigned his leading position on August 1, 2010.

Doku Umarov commented “that jihad should be led by younger and more energetic commanders.” Although he did stress that he would “continue to wage jihad and will do his utmost to help the new leadership. [Stepping down] does not mean that I give up jihad. I will do whatever I can by word and deed.” Yet by August 4, 2010, he retracts everything by stating that “Due to the situation in the Caucasus I consider that it is impossible for me to quit my duties. The previous declaration is annulled. It is a falsification. I declare that my health is good to serve Allah. And I will serve the word of Allah and work to kill the enemies of Allah in all the time that he gives me to live on this earth.”

In the past Doku Umarov on the one hand claimed that he was against killing civilians but on the other hand he supported or planned operations which killed civilians. Also, while he condemned the barbaric Beslan school hostage massacre of children in 2004, Doku Umarov then installed Shamil Basayev who was known for his brutality. Therefore, just like he claims that he isn’t an Islamist but proclaims the Caucasus Emirate, it is clear that his approach is either schizophrenic or that he is a natural survivor who will do or say anything depending on the situation.

Valery Dzutsev states in his article published on The Jamestown Foundation that “On February 2 (2012), the leader of the North Caucasus rebels Doku Umarov made an astonishing statement in support of the growing movement in Russia against Vladimir Putin. In a dramatic departure from the previously circulated views, the head of the Caucasus Emirate called on the rebels to stop attacks against Russian civilians. In a short video recording posted on the rebels’ primary website Kavkazcenter, Umarov spoke against a wintery background, presumably in the North Caucasus mountains, flanked by two young militants.”

Valery Dzutsev continues by stating that “Umarov issued direct orders to curb operations that are in progress, if civilians might suffer in these attacks. Instead, Doku Umarov called on the insurgents to focus their efforts on attacking law enforcement agencies, the military, the security services, state officials and the so-called “national traitors” or “collaborators.”

However, in the past Doku Umarov hinted at similar things but the reality is that little changed. It could imply a temporary weakness or being a survivor of many attacks against his life then maybe he is bidding for time. This applies to the need for him to strengthen the powerbase of the insurgents. After all, it is difficult to take his words at face value given past deeds and the fact that he supported Shamil Basayev despite the barbaric reality of Beslan.

http://www.jamestown.org/programs/nca/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38970&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=24&cHash=77572f0fd05e51237e58c4c05ab56240 – Article by Valery Dzutsev

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On January 5, the military clashed with a group of some 10 suspected rebels in the forested mountainous terrain near the village of Yandi, which is located in the foothills of the Achkhoi-Martan district on the Nitti River (www.interfax.ru, January 5). The peculiarity of these armed clashes was that, according to the locals, military jets and artillery were used against such a small group of militants (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, January 6). This allows us to assume that this was not simply a group of militants, but rather that the security services had figured out that the North Caucasian rebel leader Doku Umarov might be among them. It is hard to explain otherwise why military jets and artillery were used.

This area in Chechnya is essentially Doku Umarov’s base. He spends most of his time in this part of the republic, which is situated between Chechnya’s Achkhoi-Martan district and neighboring Ingushetia. The Russian security services and local government agencies constantly hunt for Umarov there to capture him alive or kill him, competing with each other. In the past, Umarov’s death in this border region with Ingushetia was announced several times, but Umarov (like Mark Twain), refuted these claims each time with visible satisfaction in his video addresses.

The selection of this region of Chechnya by the rebels’ leader as his hideout is understandable from the standpoint of security. In this mountainous part of the republic there are no actual settlements, but there are hundreds of destroyed and abandoned Chechen farms. Moreover, in the mountainous and forested areas there are roads that have not been used since the deportation of the Chechens in 1944. The main advantage of these roads is that they are not marked on the military maps of the Russian army, which uses maps from the 1980s.

Another type of armed clash took place in an area near the Tazen-kala settlement in Chechnya’s Vedeno district on January 7-8. Multiple military units were sent in to seal off the area. However, in the end, having lost three men, the group of five to ten rebels escaped the area, killing three police officers and injuring 16 (www.svobodanews.ru, January 9). Ramzan Kadyrov himself participated in that operation. According to Kadyrov, the group of rebels were under the command of Muntsigov Usman (aka Shatral), Makhram and Khanif, who are known as mid-level commanders.

Meanwhile, Chechen law enforcement agencies reported that they arrested two suspects who had organized attacks on law enforcement agents in the republic. According to the press service of the republic’s Interior Ministry, those arrested confessed to one such attack. On January 3, they allegedly attached a homemade explosive device to the bottom of a car of a Chechen Interior Ministry official in an attempt to kill him. According to the ministry, the explosive device was poorly attached and fell off the car and exploded. No one was hurt in the incident (http://chechnya.kavkaz-uzel.ru, January 6).

The federal military command in Chechnya, meanwhile, reported it had received receiving new military command and communication vehicles consisting of armored personnel carriers equipped with video cameras and GLONAS, the Russian analogue of the GPS navigation system, which should improve navigation and even permit battles with insurgents to be filmed. The machines are expected to improve the Russian military’s ability to carry out tactical tasks (http://voennovosti.ru, January 4). The upgrade went into effect not only in Chechnya, but all over the North Caucasus – evidence the region apparently remains a priority for Moscow in terms of financing, especially when it comes to the military deployed in the region.

In the run up to the Winter Olympics set to take place in Sochi in 2014, an unprecedented rearmament program is under way in southern Russia. As a rule, overall military spending in the region over the past 10 years has outpaced government spending on developing the region economically. The rearmament process has been the fastest in the whole post-Soviet history of Russia (www.ng.ru/nvo/2011-10-25/6_kavkaz.html). All tank brigades in the south of the country have been rearmed with the new T-72B tanks with upgraded rocket and cannon systems. Infantry units in North Ossetia and the Volgograd region and tank battalions in Dagestan and Abkhazia have been entirely rearmed with T-90A tanks, BMP 3 infantry fighting vehicles and BTR-82A APCs. Anti-aircraft guns and new air defense systems were overhauled, starting with those in Chechnya. The new Barnaul-T air defense system has been installed at the Kalinovskaya military base, which is in the northern part of Chechnya close to the Terek River (www.itar-tass.com, December 14, 2011). The North Caucasus is arguably the Russian region most densely packed with military hardware.

Thus, the Russian government shows it is worried about this region and the spending resulting from this is a headache in the Kremlin. This allows us to presume that the developments in the region are far from the positive trends that Moscow predicted and expected. Given the general deterioration of the situation in the region, the central government is trying to play the nationalist card (the Circassian question) and the Islamist card, especially in Chechnya, where Islam had become the dominant political factor, one which now outweighs the Russian constitution. Despite Moscow’s attempts to play nationalists against Islamists and vice versa, all of them in the end are turning against Russian rule.

Please visit The Jamestown Foundation at http://www.jamestown.org for more in depth reports from this highly acclaimed think tank.

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 8 Issue: 185

By: The Jamestown Foundation

Two suspected rebels were killed in Kabardino-Balkaria today (October 7), during a special operation in the city of Tyrnyauz. The operation began yesterday, when police blockaded a group of four suspected militants in a five-story apartment building in the city. According to the authorities, the rebels opened fire on law-enforcement personnel who had ordered them to surrender. In a similar incident in Kabardino-Balkaria on October 3, police in the city of Baksan surrounded three alleged rebels, two of whom were killed in an ensuing shootout (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 7).

On October 5, the press service of the prosecutor’s office in Kabardino-Balkaria announced it had completed an investigation into ten residents of the republic accused of aiding terrorism and setting up an “illegal armed formation.” According to the prosecutors, the goal of the group was to establish “an Islamic state with Sharia rule.” The ten allegedly plotted “armed resistance” against the republican authorities and, to that end, illegally obtained weapons, ammunition, and food and medical supplies. On October 4, prosecutors in Kabardino-Balkaria completed an investigation of two residents of the republic accused of involvement in the armed underground, attacks on law-enforcement personnel, arson attacks on shops and other crimes. The two suspects were identified as 29-year-old Mikhail Miziev and his 20-year-old brother Ramazan Miziev, both residents of the republic’s Chegem district (www.kavka-uzel.ru, October 5).

Also on October 5, Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliev said that the frequency of terrorist crimes in Kabardino-Balkaria has been cut in half this year, with “stabilization” in the republic already apparent as of this past summer. “Forty terrorist crimes have been committed in the republic this year, half the number registered during the same period last year,” he told a meeting in Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkaria’s capital. “Also, the number of injured civilians has decreased by 75 percent, which is very important.” Still, the situation remains “complicated,” Nurgaliev conceded, accusing rebels of undermining economic development and the promotion of civil society institutions in the North Caucasus. He said that while rebel attacks increased at the beginning of 2011, 313 terrorist crimes were committed in the North Caucasus Federal District in the first nine months of this year, down 58 percent compared to the same period last year.  There have also been 194 attacks with firearms and 119 bombings in the federal district so far this year — down from the same period last year, according to Nurgaliev. He said that more than 300 militants, including 35 rebel leaders, have been killed in special operations, and 194 improvised explosive devices and 300 kilograms of explosives have been seized so far this year, which is one and a half times more than in the same period last year. Nurgaliev said 143 law-enforcement officers have been killed and 397 wounded in special operations in the North Caucasus so far this year, with 25 killed and 30 wounded in Kabardino-Balkaria alone (Interfax, October 5).

In Dagestan, the chairwoman of the group Mothers of Dagestan for Human Rights told the Kavkazsky Uzel website yesterday (October 6) that a resident of the village of Sultanyangiyurt, Murad Dzhavatkhanov, had been seized by men in police uniforms after he bought a train ticket at the Kizilyurt railway station. However, when relatives called the Kizlyurt police, they denied having detained him, as did the police in the cities of Khasavyurt and Makhachkala (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 6).

On October 3, two policemen were killed and one wounded in Dagestan when the armored police van in which they were traveling was hit by a bomb blast on the outskirts of the city of Kizilyurt. The bomb was reportedly planted in another vehicle and detonated as the police van was passing by, and there were contradictory reports about whether the explosion was caused by a suicide car bomber (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 3).  The slain policemen were later identified as 29-year-old Private Bashir Kamuchov and 21-year-old Junior Sergeant Idris Nasrulaev. The bomb reportedly exploded with force of 20 kilograms of TNT, leaving a crater one and a half meters wide and 15 centimeters deep, and breaking windows in nearby buildings (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 6).

Also on October 3, a bomb detonated on the Kaspiisk-Makhachkala highway in Dagestan as a car in which a policeman and his 10-year-old daughter were driving. Both were injured and hospitalized. The blast reportedly had the force of five kilograms of TNT (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 4).

In Ingushetia, a powerful roadside bomb detonated near the city of Nazran yesterday (October 6).  No one was hurt in the incident (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 6). On October 5, a suspected rebel was killed during a special operation conducted by Federal Security Service (FSB) and Interior Ministry personnel in Nazran. The slain alleged militant was identified as Ruslan Tsurov, a resident of the village of Sredniye Achaluki in Ingushetia’s Malgobek district who was born in North Ossetia. According to the FSB, Tsurov had been involved in attacks on police and preparations for terrorist attacks (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, Interfax, October 5). On October 4, another resident of Sredniye Achaluki, Isa Sheikhov, told Kavakzsky Uzel that his son, Bilan Sheikhov, had disappeared the previous day while driving to the house in which they both lived. Isa Sheikov said his son had stopped answering his cell phone and that his car was later found abandoned with its doors broken off, which suggested he had been abducted (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 4).

In Chechnya, two policemen were wounded on September 30 when a bomb went off as they were patrolling an area three kilometers from the village of Agishty in the republic’s Shali district (www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, October 1).

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International Crisis Group

OVERVIEW

Three years after their August 2008 war over the South Ossetia region, tension is growing again between Russia and Georgia, and talks are needed to restore stability and create positive momentum in a situation that is fragile and potentially explosive. Diplomatic relations are suspended, and the two have only started limited negotiations, with Swiss mediation, on Russia’s World Trade Organisation (WTO) membership. Yet, they share interests in improving regional security, trade and transport and should start discussions on these rather than continuing to exchange hostile rhetoric that only makes renewed dialogue more difficult.

Lack of contact has increased distrust since the fighting ended. For Georgia, Russia is an occupier who is undermining its sovereignty and security. While almost the entire international community regards South Ossetia and Abkhazia as parts of sovereign Georgia, Russia recognised both as independent shortly after the war. Moscow maintains an estimated 7,000 to 9,000 combat, security, and border forces in those two territories and is building and refurbishing permanent military bases there, in violation of the ceasefire brokered by the EU presidency in 2008. Some 20,000 persons displaced that year have been prevented from returning home, and casualties still occur along the administrative border lines (ABLs).

The Geneva negotiations set up under the ceasefire to create a more productive security environment and address humanitarian issues, have made only modest headway, including the setting up of an Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) between Georgia, Russia, the de facto authorities in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) for information exchange on security incidents. The sides have been unable to agree, however, on the larger issues that the Geneva negotiations were intended to address, such as the return of displaced persons, and could easily collapse in the present toxic atmosphere.

Georgia says it has proof of Russian security services involvement in a series of bombings on its territory. Moscow denies this, while some politicians and officials accuse Georgia, with little evidence, of re-building its military to threaten Abkhazia and South Ossetia and aiding radical Islamist insurgents in Russia. The Georgian government has embarked on an effort to engage with people from Russia’s North Caucasus, but to avoid provocation, it should do this in cooperation with, rather than in spite of, Moscow. The bilateral dispute is highly personalised, with Russia’s leadership saying it will not engage with President Saakashvili. The effects are also felt in what should be unrelated spheres. Georgia is blocking Russia’s bid to join the WTO. Espionage arrests in Georgia are fostering a domestic atmosphere of suspicion less than a year before 2012 parliamentary elections.

The two sides communicate mainly through Swiss diplomats. Bern already mediates talks on the WTO dispute and is prepared to facilitate discussions on other issues, like trade, transport or security. Georgia and Russia have signed agreements on transport and energy since the war, so there is a basis for cooperation on which to build even if political willingness is limited. To take advantage of any opportunities and begin the long process to normalise ties, Moscow and Tbilisi should:

• engage in direct talks, without preconditions, on a range of subjects, with mediation, if needed, by a mutually acceptable third party. This should complement, not substitute for, the existing Geneva process; and
• de-escalate rhetoric about bombings and support for terrorism and agree to joint investigations or ones carried out by third parties.

Meanwhile, to improve security in and around Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the international community should:

• continue to press Moscow to withdraw to positions held before the 2008 conflict, facilitate the return home of displaced persons and allow the EUMM full access to South Ossetia and Abkhazia; and encourage the parties to exchange information on their security forces and their movements in areas near the ABLs.

Tbilisi/Moscow/Istanbul/Brussels

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http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/caucasus/georgia/B065-georgia-russia-learn-to-live-like-neighbours.aspx

Europe Briefing N°65 8

Armenia Passes International Nuclear Safety Test

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 8 Issue: 142

By: Emil Danielyan  

The Jamestown Foundation

Metsamor nuclear plant in Armenia (Source: RFE/RL)

 

A team of international inspectors acting under the aegis of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has given a largely positive assessment of the operational safety of Armenia’s Metsamor nuclear power plant. Its recently publicized preliminary findings are putting the Armenian government in a better position to ignore renewed calls for the closure of the Soviet-era plant and maintain the country’s heavy reliance on nuclear energy in the long term.

The government decided to ask the IAEA to examine safety practices at Metsamor in mid-March, following the nuclear disaster in Japan, which rekindled local environmentalists’ concerns about the facility. Like Japan, Armenia is located in a seismically active zone prone to the kind of powerful earthquakes that triggered the series of explosions at the Fukushima nuclear plant. Armenian environment protection groups said this alone should compel the country not to have any nuclear facilities on its territory. Government officials and nuclear experts in Yerevan dismissed these concerns (see EDM, April 11).

The IAEA-led Operational Safety Review Team (OSART), which comprised 11 experts from the United States, Britain, France and five other countries, arrived in Armenia in mid-May. It spent the following two weeks inspecting Metsamor’s reactor and other facilities, evaluating the plant’s safety and maintenance procedures, and interviewing its personnel.

“The results of our inspection show that this [environmental] risk is acceptable,” Gabor Vamos, the Hungarian head of the OSART, told a news conference in Yerevan. He said the inspectors submitted their preliminary findings to the Armenian authorities and will release a final report within three months (www.armenialiberty.org, June 2).

The OSART mission found at Metsamor seven “good plant practices” that will be recommended to the nuclear industries of other nations for consideration. According to a separate IAEA statement issued on June 2, one of those examples is the fact that in recent years “several important safety systems have been updated using the resources of the plant’s staff.” “This unique approach resulted in staff acquiring deep knowledge and skills to successfully operate and maintain new equipment,” read the statement.

The statement also stated: “The plant has developed a specific, comprehensive system supported by procedure to mitigate the consequences of a station blackout by providing power to systems and components necessary for cooling the reactor in emergency conditions.” This conclusion must have been particularly heartening for the authorities in Yerevan given the fact that the Japan disaster was caused by the failure of Fukushima’s reactor cooling system. The system in place at Metsamor is markedly different and, according to Armenian officials, more reliable than Fukushima’s.

The OSART also reported a number of shortcomings in Metsamor’s operations and made relevant recommendations on how to address them. In particular, Vamos noted that Metsamor technicians do not quickly identify all equipment deficiencies that require urgent repairs. The Armenian authorities should work out a more rigorous mechanism for keeping the plant’s equipment in an “ideal state,” he said.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan seized upon the IAEA-led mission’s assessment to declare that the plant generating about 40 percent of Armenia’s electricity does not pose a significant safety risk to the environment. Speaking at the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) later in June, Sargsyan said that despite this “fairly good evaluation,” the Armenian authorities will carry out more safety upgrades there. He also insisted that his landlocked country has no choice but to continue to rely on atomic energy because of the long-running economic embargoes by neighboring Azerbaijan and Turkey (Armenian Public Television, June 22).

One key element of this energy security strategy is an ambitious project to replace Metsamor’s sole functioning reactor (built in 1980, brought to a halt in 1989 and reactivated in 1995) with a new and much more powerful one. The Armenian government planned to organize a conference for potential foreign investors in Yerevan in late April as part of its ongoing efforts to attract an estimated $5 billion in funding needed for the project’s implementation.

Armenian Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Armen Movsisian, said last week that the conference will take place this fall. He attributed the postponement to the Fukushima disaster and its negative implications for the global nuclear industry. In Movsisian’s words, Russia’s Rosatom state nuclear energy agency and “a couple of companies from other countries” have already expressed an interest in participating in the new plant’s construction. However, the minister did not name them (www.tert.am, June 13).

Armenian officials have said in the past that the construction will start by 2012 and probably end in 2017, in time for Metsamor’s planned decommissioning. However, these time frames look increasingly unrealistic, suggesting that the existing plant will operate several years longer than planned. The OSART’s conclusions will only make it easier for Yerevan to dismiss domestic and international criticism of this delay.

Vamos told journalists in the Armenian capital that Metsamor’s VVER-440 light-water reactor can safely operate beyond its design life span. “In principle, there is such technical possibility,” said the IAEA mission head.

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor – The Jamestown Foundation

http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38223&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=358073fb2e71c426071d8740fda31cbc

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International Crisis Group

OVERVIEW

The mostly Armenian-populated Javakheti region, along the southern border with Armenia and Turkey, has been a potential flashpoint since Georgia’s 1991 independence, when a paramilitary group practically ran it, and physical links with the rest of the country were weak. After the 2008 Georgia-Russia war, many outside observers, recalling that there had been violent demonstrations in Javakheti in 2005 and 2006, predicted it would be the next to seek autonomy – or more. But the situation has stabilised. Tbilisi has successfully implemented programs to increase the region’s ties to the rest of the country, stopped projects that were seen as discriminatory and reduced the influence of the few remaining radical groups. It should maintain this momentum and take additional steps to guarantee that Javakheti and its 95,000 mainly Armenian speakers feel fully integrated in Georgia and provide an example of respect for minority rights in a region where minorities who feel discriminated against have all too often been attracted to secession, such as in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Lack of knowledge of the state language (Georgian) and poverty encourages migration from the region to Armenia and Russia. A paucity of media reporting on the isolated area helps reinforce feelings of marginalisation. Many Javakheti residents do not feel like full-fledged citizens, so prefer to become involved in the political and cultural life of neighbouring Armenia, whose nationalist groups are quick to argue that they are the victims of ethnic discrimination due to Georgian government policies and to amplify their grievances over poverty, unemployment, education and the lack of formal laws recognising Armenian as a “regional language” in Javakheti. However, the current Yerevan authorities are playing a stabilising role in decreasing tensions and have arrested alleged Javakheti radicals in Armenia.

Georgia was concerned about Moscow’s intentions in the region, especially as a major Russian military base – a left-over from the Soviet era – was located there. Some Russian commentators speculated that the Kremlin could use its influence in Javakheti to cause Georgia to renounce its NATO membership aspirations. But the base was closed in 2007, and Moscow lost more of its ability to manipulate local grievances the next year, when it committed to Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence. Nevertheless, in Tbilisi fear that Russia could use the region to destabilise Georgia has increased since the war, even though this presently seems highly unlikely.

Although Javakheti poses no immediate threat to Georgia’s territorial integrity, Tbilisi needs to continue to increase its focus on the region, so as to build confidence with local leaders and engender a sense of loyalty towards the state. This would help to avoid interpretations that the local aspects of nationwide problems, such as the economy, reflect ethnic discrimination.

To ensure the political stability and sustainable development of Javakheti and improve regional integration, thereby reducing the region’s vulnerability to destabilisation, the Georgian government, with the support of international partners, should:

• provide the public with comprehensive information in Armenian on its policies and facilitate public discussions on issues, such as integration, language and human rights;
• build the capacities of educated and motivated local officials, further training them in public administration while creating an open and restriction-free environment for local business;
• provide long-term budgetary resources to make educational projects such as multilingual schools, teacher training, translation of Georgian textbooks into Armenian and Georgian-as-a-second-language courses more systematised and sustainable; do more to attract Georgian language teachers to Javakheti; and give scholarships for higher education to Javakheti Armenians on condition that they return to teach;
• codify current language and education practices for the minority population in national legislation; honour the spirit of the European Charter for Regional and Minority Languages (ECRML) while working toward its ratification;
• encourage more private investment, with a view to bringing the Javakheti economic ultimately to the national level; and
• offer to fund local television stations’ translations of nationwide programs, including talk shows, and encourage the public broadcaster (TV Channels 1 and 2) and other national television stations to improve coverage of Javakheti.

Nationalist groups and media in Armenia should fully acknowledge that Javakheti’s residents are Georgian citizens and refrain from over-politicising sensitive issues by labelling them cases of ethnic discrimination. Many of Javakheti’s problems are shared by other isolated regions in Georgia. The donor community and international organisations should continue to work with Tbilisi to further develop democratic institutions, judicial independence, rule of law and free media, with a view to improving stability in Javakheti as in the rest of Georgia.
 

Tbilisi/Yerevan/Brussels

Europe Briefing N°63

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/europe/caucasus/georgia/B063-georgia-the-javakheti-regions-integration-challenges.aspx

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