Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

On the morning of March 11, 2011, everything seemed normal in trendy Tokyo because the trains were jammed packed and the city was buzzing along like always. However, during the afternoon everything changed after the powerful 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit Japan. This earthquake was different because it was extremely powerful and the aftershocks were constant and powerful for the next few weeks. At first, most people were bewildered because earthquakes happen all the time in Japan but usually you don’t notice them because they soon fade into nothing. Yet just like the brutal earthquake in Kobe, this was different. Not only this, but unknown at the time in Tokyo, the 9.0-magnitude earthquake had set off a chain of events which were horrendous. This applies to the brutal tsunami which triggered the nuclear crisis in Fukushima.

It took many days before people from all over Japan understood the real severity of the crisis. Initial reports had stated information about the tsunami but the final number of deaths was unimaginable. However, in time it became clear that over 18.000 people had been killed and that whole communities along the coast had been devastated in the Tohoku region and other areas.

The nuclear crisis also felt surreal because powerful aftershocks continued for many weeks after that initial 9.0-magnitude earthquake. Not only this, on the one hand you had many media outlets focusing on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear crisis – but, on the other hand, over 18,000 people had perished because of the tsunami. On top of this, so many people were homeless and living in harsh conditions. Therefore, the fear of radiation in distant Tokyo felt like a selfish reaction from my point of view – of course, other people disagree because you had so much uncertainty. Yet, according to two nuclear specialists, Sir John Beddington and Dr. Vojin Joksimovich, Tokyo wasn’t threatened by the nuclear crisis in far-away Fukushima and this assured many individuals who came to read and learn about their opinions.

However, this didn’t stop many embassies closing and individuals leaving irrespective of nationality. Yet, for the overwhelming majority of Tokyoites it was a time to knuckle down and to get on with things.

Whatever the alarm was in Tokyo because of the so-called radiation scare the “real truth” was that thousands of people had been killed by the horrendous tsunami which swept everything away in its path. Also, vast numbers of people had lost their homes, property, livelihood and so much more. The gap between the reality of Tokyo during the first few weeks and the “real reality” of districts which were hit by the tsunami was not only enormous, it was unimaginable.

Therefore, with today being March 11, 2013, and being the second anniversary of the brutal tsunami which was triggered by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake; it is a time to dwell about what really happened and to remember the dead. It is equally a time to remember all the brave individuals who helped during the worse period. This applies to all volunteers, local people who helped, community leaders, the armed forces of Japan, the armed forces of America, the fire brigade, the local police force, hospital staff and people from other walks of life who chipped in during this very difficult time.

It is also sad to think that many people are still missing two years later and so many other deep issues remain. Given this, it is essential that continuing support is given to the areas which were hit the hardest. This applies to economic support, regeneration, new investments, welfare centers to help with emotional issues, and in many other important areas.

March 11, 2011, will never be forgotten and neither will the bravery of so many people who helped during this very difficult period.

http://mashable.com/2011/04/17/japan-tsunami-video/  This video shows the brutal tsunami of March 11, 2011. However, please be warned that the last few minutes show people fleeing.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Joachim de Villiers and Kanako Itamae

Modern Tokyo Times

The mass media in Japan and internationally overhyped the anti-nuclear reality in this nation after the Fukushima nuclear crisis, which emerged after the 9.0-magnitude earthquake unleashed a brutal tsunami. This tsunami in turn created the nuclear crisis in Fukushima after the devastating earthquake of March 11, 2011. Since this period you have had a lot of soul searching, political shenanigans, ridiculous reporting and outright scaremongering. However, time after time it was clear that the “nuclear issue” wasn’t what it was portrayed to be.

Prior to voting in the recent general election it was abundantly clear that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was much more open to the nuclear option, than the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) when applied to the long-term and possible phasing out of nuclear power. Despite this, and a massive media campaign internally and externally against nuclear power, the people voted according to their real priorities. Therefore, the LDP was elected based on economic factors and other areas which were given higher priority.

In truth, local elections also pointed in this direction because clearly the “nuclear issue” was driven by media pundits who wrote articles which suited their own anti-nuclear agenda. However, when the moment of truth occurred then obviously the LDP was entrusted despite being more open to maintaining the nuclear energy option.

Toshimitsu Motegi, Trade and Industry Minister, made it clear that the nuclear energy option would become viable providing the nuclear reactors were deemed safe. At the same time, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is proclaiming the economy to be the real target because of the current economic malaise in Japan. The natural progression from this is that the nuclear energy angle is more cost effective and reliable than alternative sources of energy, which could replace nuclear power under the prevailing conditions.

Motegi is also powerful within the current government when it comes to energy. Given this reality, he also commented that new economic measures would not be held to ransom by higher energy costs. He stated that “We need to reconsider the previous administration’s policy that aimed to make zero nuclear power operation possible during the 2030s.”

The power of corporate companies in Japan is enormous and many leading business leaders are alarmed by the high energy costs. If the economy of Japan was vibrant then maybe many business leaders would come on board with the anti-nuclear lobby. However, given the weakness of the economy of Japan and the lack of a real alternative energy policy, then clearly many business leaders desire the nuclear option to become viable. Of course, not all business leaders agree, however, many big players are clearly putting pressure on politicians via many channels.

Abe commented that “A strong economy is the source of energy for Japan. Without regaining a strong economy, there is no future for Japan.” This matches his other comments which have stated that he believed that the role of nuclear energy should play a more important role within the energy policy of Japan.

Vojin Joksimovich, nuclear expert in the field of nuclear safety, commented in Modern Tokyo Times that “The March 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident is the worst accident in the 55-year history of commercial nuclear power. The 1986 Chernobyl accident in Ukraine released more radioactivity, but it was a single core-melt plus single hydrogen explosion, while the Fukushima accident was a triple core-melt and triple hydrogen explosion. Despite the unprecedented severity of the accident there were no observable health effects due to radiation exposures, which is true for both the members of the public and plant operating crews as well. The modern radiobiology provides scientific answers why no health effects were experienced. As a matter of fact, the most serious effects were not caused by radiation but by fear of it from the Japanese authorities ordering forced evacuations. The Japan’s Reconstruction Agency reported that the mental or physical burden of the forced move from their homes was the cause of 34 early deaths among senior citizens. Nuclear alarmism or fear of radiation was the root cause of people being panic-driven and this fact is proving to be costly post-Fukushima based on political decisions made within Japan and in some European countries.”

Further down in the same article Vojin Joksimovich states that “Nuclear alarmism is to be blamed for the post-Fukushima political decisions in Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy. In Japan, 17 nuclear plants generated electricity through the 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, now called the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, while all 50 plants were shutdown in the May/June 2012 time frame prior to restart of Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO) Ohi units 3&4. 30% of the nation’s generating capacity continues to be idled waiting for the newly established Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) to establish a new legal safety framework which is not expected before July 2013. Meanwhile the country is relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal, both imported. Increased use of fossil fuels means a rise in greenhouse gas emissions even though the country experienced a fall in manufacturing output. KEPCO has joined TEPCO as the second utility to pass on the rising cost of fossil fuels. KEPCO has applied to raise the household electricity rates by 12%, while TEPCO received permission in July to raise the rates by 8.5%. In addition, KEPCO plans to raise a tariff on commercial customers by 19%. A third utility, the Kyushu Electric Power is likely to be the next.”

Yet despite scaremongering and mass alarmism by major media corporations, it is clear that the Japanese electorate have voted for the LDP despite knowing the nuclear intentions of this party. Rupert Wingfield-Hayes, BBC, stated during the height of the crisis that “The threat to Tokyo’s 30 million people is invisible.  Everyone is now asking themselves the same question.  When does the crisis unfolding at the Fukushima nuclear plant 150 miles (240km) to the north cross that invisible line when you decide the risk of staying here is too high?”

Of course, the above comment was massively overhyped because many Tokyoites never thought about leaving this major city at any point. Yet, the mass media adores scaremongering and inciting. Despite this, the people of Japan on the whole are more focused on economic factors. Also, many are apolitical and are neither pro-nuclear, nor anti-nuclear; yet many are pragmatic and for this reason the LDP was elected despite being more pro-nuclear than the DPJ.

Lee Jay Walker gave background support to both writers

http://moderntokyotimes.com/2012/12/16/nuclear-alarmism-has-driven-post-fukushima-political-decisions-japan-germany-and-international/

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD

Modern Tokyo Times

The March 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident is the worst accident in the 55-year history of commercial nuclear power. The 1986 Chernobyl accident in Ukraine released more radioactivity, but it was a single core-melt plus single hydrogen explosion, while the Fukushima accident was a triple core-melt and triple hydrogen explosion. Despite the unprecedented severity of the accident there were no observable health effects due to radiation exposures, which is true for both the members of the public and plant operating crews as well. The modern radiobiology provides scientific answers why no health effects were experienced. As a matter of fact, the most serious effects were not caused by radiation but by fear of it from the Japanese authorities ordering forced evacuations. The Japan’s Reconstruction Agency reported that the mental or physical burden of the forced move from their homes was the cause of 34 early deaths among senior citizens. Nuclear alarmism or fear of radiation was the root cause of people being panic-driven and this fact is proving to be costly post-Fukushima based on political decisions made within Japan and in some European countries.

Health Effects from the Fukushima Accident

The UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), an independent body of experts meeting since 1955 which has helped establish radiation as the best understood carcinogen in the world, has published a preliminary report. The report found no observable health effects from the Fukushima accident.

Last month I presented a paper at the American Nuclear Society Winter Semiannual Meeting in San Diego titled Fukushima Insights: Public Risks from Nuclear Accidents Grossly Overstated. My assertion was primarily based on Prof. Wade Allison testimony in the UK House of Commons, based on his brilliant book Radiation and Reason. He stated that the Fukushima accident resulted in no acute fatalities, no acute injuries, no extended hospitalizations due to radiation and unlikely cancer fatalities in 50 years. Modern radiobiology provides scientific explanations for these unobservable health effects including two seminal studies: a) 86,611 Hiroshima/Nagasaki survivor data —0.6% died from radiation-induced cancers between 1945 and 2000, and b) UNSCEAR Chernobyl studies (1988-2011). I had referenced also the World Health Organization (WHO) preliminary report of the Fukushima accident (final is expected soon) as well as the Tokyo University study.

Prof. Allison made a key point: “Nuclear safety is two separate subjects, risk to reactors and risks to people. Those do not overlap though few people make the separation.” This writer uses the terminology of investment and public risks. It is about time that the policy makers worldwide do their home work and distinguish between investment and public risks.

No need for Forced Evacuations

150,000 residents were evacuated using chronic exposure of 20mSv/yr as the guideline. This value is 10,000 lower than monthly dose to Japanese radiotherapy patients. In my paper I asserted that human and economic costs associated with the forced evacuations cannot be justified. The benefit cannot be quantified because maximum radiation exposure was 33mSv for the adults and 23mSv for young less than 20 yrs of age. However the human cost was 34 early deaths among elderly, life disruptions, school closures, relocations and restrictions which are still in place. Instead of the forced evacuations, it was sufficient for the Japanese authorities to order indoor sheltering, distribution of potassium-iodide pills if needed and a ban on drinking contaminated milk if needed.

No need for forced evacuations was an obvious conclusion from the UNSCEAR analyses of the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The most serious effects were not caused by radiation but by fear of it from than the Soviet authorities.

Nuclear Alarmism: Fear of Radiation

The radiation fear factor has been massively instilled by the media, which portray almost any release of radioactivity from nuclear plants as nuclear Armageddon. The politicians afterwards exercise their self-serving political instincts. These fear factors, are exploiting Hiroshima-Nagasaki bomb blasts plus the Cold War prospects of nuclear annihilation. However, obsessions with nuclear weapons were not supported by history, scientific facts or logic as discussed in great depth in Prof. John Mueller’s book Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda.

In addition to the media and politicians there are others to be blamed for this lack of understanding of radiation induced biological effects including the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), which has developed radiation standards. The ICRP developed standards are not health risk-based. Instead the ICRP has been pursuing the quest of absolute safety leading to an as low as reasonably achievable approach.

Post-Fukushima Irrational Political Decisions

Nuclear alarmism is to be blamed for the post-Fukushima political decisions in Japan, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium and Italy. In Japan, 17 nuclear plants generated electricity through the 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake, now called the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami, while all 50 plants were shutdown in the May/June 2012 time frame prior to restart of Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO) Ohi units 3&4. 30% of the nation’s generating capacity continues to be idled waiting for the newly established Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA) to establish a new legal safety framework which is not expected before July 2013. Meanwhile the country is relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal, both imported. Increased use of fossil fuels means a rise in greenhouse gas emissions even though the country experienced a fall in manufacturing output. KEPCO has joined TEPCO as the second utility to pass on the rising cost of fossil fuels. KEPCO has applied to raise the household electricity rates by 12%, while TEPCO received permission in July to raise the rates by 8.5%. In addition, KEPCO plans to raise a tariff on commercial customers by 19%. A third utility, the Kyushu Electric Power is likely to be the next.

In Germany a moratorium was first imposed for seven pre-1980 built plants (8336 MW), five days after the Fukushima accident, then a permanent shutdown directive followed. Subsequently, the Merkel government made a decision to phase-out nuclear power by 2022, which provided 23% of nation’s electricity. Switzerland decided not to build any new plants, which would cost the country $33bn, Belgium cancelled life-extensions of two nuclear plants. Italy was in process of making a decision to build new plants but a referendum killed those prospects.

The impact on German utilities has been huge: thousands of job losses, multi-billion lawsuit against the government, withdrawals from overseas nuclear investments, like the Horizon consortium in the UK due to impact on the balance sheets. An illustration is provided with the case of E.On, one of Germany’s four nuclear utilities. Much of its power generation is impacted by government decisions to favor renewable energy over more economic options and closure of nuclear generation. In Germany, some other European countries and the state of California, feed into the electric grid from wind and solar has a priority when these sources are available due to their intermittent nature. When the feed takes place other more economic generating capacity, like gas-fired plants, are running at sub-economic capacity which makes them barely profitable to operate. This situation benefits carbon-intensive lignite-fired plants. E.On’s renewables made a loss and produced less than 1% power. The reduced nuclear fleet produced the most income and 21% power generation. However, this income will have to be slashed due to the unprecedented tax on nuclear fuel, which E.On’s is contesting in court. In November, Munich experienced its biggest power failure in two decades due to loss of 5 GWe of nuclear generation in the south with the inadequate grid being unable to compensate.

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) published a report titled Nuclear Energy and Renewables: System Effects in Low-carbon Electricity Systems.The report addresses interaction between variable renewables and so-called dispatchable energy technologies (coal, gas, nuclear)connected to the same grid. It finds that dispatcables have system costs of less than $3/MWh, while the system costs for renewables can reach $40/MWh for onshore wind, $45/MWh for offshore wind and $80/MWh for solar. These costs are absorbed by rate-payers and producers of dispatchables. The new Japanese government should learn both from the E.On’s experience and this NEA study.In addition the Japanese government should pay attention to the World Energy Council (WEC) study, which shows that the most sustainable national power systems in the world combine nuclear with hydro for mass low-carbon generation. Ten countries were highlighted: Sweden, Switzerland, Canada, Norway, Finland, New Zealand, Denmark, Japan (prior to the nuclear shutdowns), France and Austria. Self-declared environmental leader Germany was the 11^th due to high carbon intensity.

What the Public Needs to Know about Radiation

Instead of believing the media, members of the public need to know: a) Everybody on the globe is exposed to background chronic radiation. The worldwide average is 2.4 mSv/yr. At Ramsar in Iran it is 10-260mSv/yr, but residents have not experienced health effects attributable to radiation; b) Diagnostic medical exams are acceptable worldwide (0.1-3 mSv). c) In radiotherapy cancer patients receive 1,000-2,000 mSv/day; d) Radiation is harmful at high doses and so is aspirin; e) Biological effects depend on single dose and rate of absorption (mSv and mSv/month or year). f) The single acute radiation syndrome (ARS) dose takes place at 4,000-8,000mSv. g) Nausea initiation takes place at 1,000mSv. h) The cancer threshold is 100mSv or 100mSv/month, below this level radiation exposure is risk free.

It is appropriate to quote the late Indian prime minister Pandit Nehru: “The policy of being cautious is the greatest risk at all.” In the early days when commercial nuclear power was introduced and less well understood, it was appropriate to be overly conservative in order to account for uncertainties in knowledge. These days are gone. Risks to human health associated with ionizing radiation are scientifically understood. The radiation standards should be revised and political decisions should not be based on fear but scientifically based.

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD has 40 yrs of experience in the field of nuclear safety

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD

Modern Tokyo Times

The “Made in Japan” headlines prevailed in the nuclear and other trade press characterizing conclusions from the report by the Japanese Diet’s commissioned Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAIIC). The NAIIC chairman Kiyoshi Kurokawa, a medical doctor and a former president of Japan’s Science Council, wrote: “What must be admitted—very painfully—is that this was a disaster ‘Made in Japan.’ Its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to ‘sticking with the program,’ our groupism; and our insularity.” The mindset of government and industry led the country to avoid learning the lessons of the previous major nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island (TMI) and Chernobyl. “The consequences of negligence at Fukushima stand out as catastrophic, but the mindset that supported it can be found across Japan. In recognizing that fact, each of us (every Japanese citizen) should reflect on our responsibility as individuals in a democratic society.”

The Diet, the NAIIC and it chairman should be congratulated for their courage to call a spade a spade. Other investigations, such as by the Investigation Committee on Accidents at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations established by a Cabinet decision, stopped short of blaming Japanese culture. Interestingly enough the NAIIC’s harshest criticism of the Japanese culture was only published in the English version of the report. The Japanese version was more measured blaming the response to the accident on the mindset created by such aspects as seniority systems and lifetime employment. Kurokawa believes that outside pressure can help push change in Japan.

To some observers outside of Japan, mindset (term preferred to culture) as a root cause of the Fukushima accident became obvious as early as April 2011, a month after the accident. It was much less painful for outsiders, which have experienced the Japanese nuclear culture, to arrive at the same conclusion. This writer has delivered a number of presentations titled “Fukushima: Tsunami Induced but man-made disaster.” Analyses of the TMI and Chernobyl led to the same conclusion that the mindset was the root cause reflecting complacency prevailing in the US nuclear industry as well as the Soviet one respectively. To a different degree the same conclusions would apply to non-nuclear catastrophic accidents such as Bhopal, Challenger, and AMOCO Cadiz. Piper Alpha, Exxon Valdez, 2010 BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill, even the cruise ship Costa Concordia which killed 32 people.

Kurokawa’s Report Criticism

Two articles published by the Financial Times are illustrative of Kurosawa’s report criticism in the west: Culture blame games are no way to prevent future crises by Mure Dickie, and Stop blaming Fukushima on Japan’s culture by Columbia University professor Gerald Curtis. Dickie wrote: “Focusing too heavily on culture could merely shift responsibility from institutions and individuals that took the decisions that led to disaster.” Prof. Curtis makes the same point: “To pin the blame on culture is the ultimate cop-out. If culture explains behaviour, then no one has to take responsibility. This is indeed what the report concludes when it says that the results would have been the same even with others in charge.” From my analyses of the Daiichi accident it was less than abundantly clear who actually was in charge. Hence, it is more appropriate to blame the mindset rather than individuals. I do not recall that any particular individual was blamed in the US for the TMI.

Japanese culture is top-down, which is not amenable to managing a fast propagating nuclear accident. Prof. Curtis mentioned the example of Masao Yoshida, the plant superintendent/manager, who “disobeyed orders not to use seawater to cool the reactors. Incredibly Tepco’s management initially clung to the hope that the reactors would one day be brought back to operation, something that would be impossible once seawater was injected into them.” This is a textbook example why the Japanese top-down culture is flawed. The TEPCO executives in Tokyo, who were not even in their offices when the accident took place, were simply not qualified to judge whether and when the seawater should be injected into reactors. By profession they could be lawyers or accountants with no adequate grasp for nuclear safety while the plant manager is the only person who could make an informed and timely decision. Incidentally, the new TEPCO chairman is a lawyer. Hence, in the Japanese nuclear industry cultural reform, the responsibility must be operationally delegated to the plant manager with no interference from his Tokyo office bosses in cases of a nuclear emergency.

It is conceivable that the Daiichi plant manager’s decision to inject seawater was delayed due to the Tokyo office interferences. There was no injection into the Unit 1 reactor for14 hrs and 9 mins. Difficulties in bringing in fire engines plus aftershocks were probably responsible for the injection delay. In case of the Unit 2, there was no injection for 6 hrs and 29 mins approximately 70 hrs into the accident. In that case it appears that there was hesitation to inject the seawater. The same may be true with regarding the Unit 3 with no injection for 6 hrs and 43 mins approximately 36 hrs into the accident. It would be an excellent first step in the cultural reform program to explicitly delegate the authority to the plant manager. The second step could be to appoint a chief nuclear safety officer with substantial background in nuclear safety and risk assessment.

Catastrophic Accidents

Catastrophic accidents are not random but multi-causal events. They are not acts of God but acts of people; consist of actions, decisions or omissions—like the line of dominoes (when the last domino is inserted the accident is triggered). In case of Fukushima the last domino was the tsunami  but beyond it was the man-made disaster. Because these accidents are acts of people they are highly preventable. Virtually every major accident had a precursor which should have alerted the responsible parties not only with regard to the potential of recurrence but also that the consequences might become much more serious, e.g. the 1978 Davis-Besse incident served as a precursor for the TMI.

In case of Fukushima one can argue that a precursor was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, or South Asian tsunami. The earthquake magnitude of 9.1-9.3 triggered a series of devastating tsunamis, killing over 230,000 people in fourteen countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves of up to 30 meters. TEPCO failed to make use of an in-house study that estimated the extent of damage by huge tsunamis on nuclear power plants. The study was first conducted in 2006 by a group of TEPCO employees to determine what would happen to the Unit 5 if it was hit by waves higher than the design basis value of 5.7 meters. The group estimated that if the waves exceeded 13.5 meters the station blackout would take place and it would be impossible to inject the water into the reactor or to prevent loss of the ultimate heat sink. In addition, the group estimated that it would cost about $25 million to implement measures to prevent plant inundation by flooding. In 2008, TEPCO made another estimate to determine the effects of a 10m high tsunami. However, in both cases the company failed to implement the study results. According to the NAIIC, the regulator NISA gave no instruction to the company to prepare for flooding and even told the nuclear utilities it wasn’t necessary to plan for the station blackout. This represents a text-book example of lack of safety culture on behalf of the regulator. The TEPCO decision was penny-wise pound-foolish. They had jeopardized not only the public but the investment into Daiichi and Daini plants.

Anatomy of Catastrophic Accidents

Years ago this writer had identified catastrophic accident underlying causes as the 4Ms:

• Machine–design of plants system with its basic flaws;
• Millieux—natural phenomena, operational conditions, political environment, commercial pressures;
• Man—operational crew response, maintenance errors;
• Management—basic flaws in organizational safety culture.

Progress in evolution of the Probabilistic Risk or Safety Assessment (PRA or PSA) methodology has addressed each M sequentially, i.e. machine, milliex, man, management. While the first three Ms played a part in the catastrophic accidents to a lesser degree, the 4^th M played the dominant part. The term management implies the institutional safety culture, a composite of safety cultures of the key players in the Japanese nuclear industry, e.g. nine nuclear utilities, NISA, government agencies, academia, independent experts, etc. The Fukushima accident was not any different from other industrial catastrophic accidents mentioned above.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) International Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) offered the following definition of the safety culture: “Safety culture is that assembly of characteristics and attitudes in organizations and individuals which establishes that as an overriding priority, nuclear plant safety issues receive the attention warranted by their significance.” An elaboration of this definition and a possible application to the Japanese nuclear industry is outside the scope of this article.

The Fukushima accident proves once more that the public risks from the operation of nuclear plants have been grossly overstated while the investment risks have been understated.

Overstatement of Public Risks

The Fukushima Daiichi accident, while being the worst accident in the 55-year of commercial nuclear power history, has resulted in no acute fatalities, no acute injuries, no extended hospitalizations due to radiation, and unlikely cancer fatalities in 50 years (testimony of Prof. Wade Allison in the British House of Commons). Modern radiology provides answers for why no heath effects including the 86,611 Hiroshima/Nagasaki survivor data in the time frame of 1950-2000 (only 0.6% died from radiation-induced cancers); the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chernobyl 2008 report: large number received doses less than 100mSv (cancer threshold) and no excess cancers other than the thyroid ones; French National Academies of Science and Medicine Study: UK study of radiation workers; century-old radiotherapy practices, MIT low-dose study, etc. The WHO preliminary report corroborates low dose rates measured. The researchers at Hirosaki University in northern Japan evaluated the radiation exposure and arrived at the following maximum exposures: 33mSv for adults and 23mSv for those under the age of 20. They point out that these exposures are lower than an internationally accepted limit of 50mSv. Remember that the cancer threshold is 100mSv. For some reason, the accident evaluation reports did not address this important aspect of the Fukushima accident. The American Nuclear Society (ANS) says that it was premature. But it was not.

In contrast to Fukushima over 19,000 people died from the tsunami. Had it not been for the media hype, the Daiichi accident would have been a side show. It is apparent to this writer that the Japanese government needs to pay more attention on how to protect the residents from another huge earthquake induced tsunami in addition to protecting the nuclear plants from tsunamis.

No Rational Need for Resident Evacuations

This writer asserts that evacuation of 110,000 residents cannot be justified on the basis of massive human and economic costs. The benefits to the residents cannot be quantified as illustrated with the Hirosaki University maximum exposures. However, costs of life disruptions, 13 suicides, painful relocations, school closures, restrictions in several areas not lifted yet, are quantifiable and have been in the tens of billions. The dose of 20mSv/yr used as the evacuation guideline was 10,000 times lower than the monthly dose to Japanese radiotherapy patients. An order for indoor sheltering and distribution of potassium-iodide pills would have been sufficient to protect the Fukushima Prefecture residents.

In case of Chernobyl most serious effects were caused not by radiation buy by the fear of it. After 36 hrs, 116,000 residents were forcibly evacuated. Exclusion zone to limit doses to 1mSv/yr led to evacuation of hundreds of thousands. Severe social and economic stresses included suicides, depressions, alcoholism, family dislocations, broken livelihoods, etc.

Investment Risks

Prior to the 1979 TMI accident potential financial losses associated with an accident resulting in the reactor core damage received little to zero attention. There was a huge complacency factor that a core-melt accident cannot happen despite the fact that the results of the Reactor Safety Study (RSS) were available in 1975. The TMI cleanup/decommissioning costs amounted to $1bn over 14 yrs after 45% core-melt. Post TMI, the nuclear utility industry was overwhelmed with the regulatory impact estimated at some $35bn. The mandated package resulted in substantial reduction of investment risk. However more was needed to be done to fully address the investment risks. The Chernobyl decommissioning is not over yet and the accident took place in 1986.

In case of investment risks concerns in Japan, it appears that pre-TMI climate prevailed despite the fact that the TMI happened in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986. Some 1300 earthquakes were observed in 2010 and 2000 in a prior year. Mega-thrust quakes potential was there due to existence of subduction faults with potential for huge tsunamis. Credible PRA analyses would have identified investment risks with common cause initiators such as earthquakes or floods suggesting common-sense design changes plus severe accident preparedness badly lacking during the Daiichi accident. In addition there was a 2007 Chuetsu offshore quake close to TEPCO’s seven-unit Kashiwazaki Kariwa plants. Instead of making a prudent decision, the TEPCO shareholders were compelled to accept the $12.5bn government bailout in order to help rebuild finances in exchange for up to 75% ownership of the stock by the government.

Atomic Alarmism

The media projects that the Japanese public opinion has shifted from complacency to humility while atomic alarmism is prevailing in many local governments. The radiation fear factor has massively been instilled by the media which now matches the performance of its US counterparts, which report that any radioactive release as nuclear Armageddon. The politicians then exercise their opportunistic political instincts. In addition to the media and politicians there are others to be blamed for this lack of understanding of radiation induced biological effects, including the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which propagates radiation standards. These standards are not risk based; instead the ICRP pursues the quest of absolute safety leading to as low as practicable approach.

The media-induced atomic alarmism has been prevailing in the US for decades. For that reason this writer includes 101 perspectives on radiation in his lectures. A brief summary follows. Everybody on the globe is exposed to background chronic radiation. The worldwide average is 2.4mSv/yr. At Ramsar in Iran it amounts to 10-260mSv/yr, but residents have not experienced any health effects. Diagnostic medical exams are acceptable (0.1-3mSv). In radiotherapy cancer patients receive 1,000-2,000mSv/day. The radiation is harmful at high doses, but so is aspirin. Biological effects depend on single dose and rate of absorption (mSv and mSv/month or yr). Single acute radiation syndrome (ARS) at 4,000-8,000mSv; nausea at 1,000mSv. The cancer threshold is 100mSv or 100mSv/month, below this level it is risk free.

Restart of Nuclear Plants

Japan forms the focus of an in-depth study in support of the World Economic Forum (WEF) report, New Energy Architecture: Enabling an Effective Transition, as a country that needs to ‘rationalize” and re-organize mature energy systems. Such reorganization has become more prominent after the Daiichi accident, which has led to an “unprecedented level of debate and stakeholder engagement.” Prior to the accident, Japan had been planning to meet 60% of its electricity with nuclear power in line with environmental sustainability targets to reduce CO2 emissions by 54% (from 2003 levels) by 2050. The report doesn’t question Japan’s continued need for nuclear power and notes that “a hasty withdrawal from nuclear energy could be disastrous for Japan.” The report recognizes that decommissioning of nuclear plants is expensive but that any rapid change would jeopardize Japan’s energy security and increase its dependence on fossil fuel imports.

To this writer he finds it paradoxical that 15 nuclear plants generated electricity throughout the Tohoku earthquake, while all 50 plants (four Daiichi units have been written off) were all shutdown in May/June 2012 due to opposition to restarts by local authorities after extended periodic inspections (36 units with capacity of 31.8 GWe). These plants on the Japanese west coast were not damaged by the earthquake/ tsunami. The plants on the east coast were either damaged by tsunami or were shutdown due to the government request, e.g. Hamaoka units. This nuclear shutdown created a new era for the fossil fuels with associated increase in pollution. In 2012 the fossil fuel plants generated 90% of electricity compared to 64% in 2011. The fossil fuel imports are costing about $40bn or $333 per person, per year while its carbon emissions have risen some 14% above the 1990 levels. How many people will die from elevated pollution?

The atomic alarmism has led the local authorities to oppose restarts. These plants have been subjected to the IAEA endorsed stress tests, a post-Daiichi invention which was initiated by the EU for all of its 143 plants based on a set of common criteria. . The Japanese tests are computer simulations that analyze whether a reactor can withstand disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis. The utilities have promised higher sea walls to protect against tsunamis as well as ways to prevent station blackouts. The affected utilities submitted their stress-test reports between October 2011 and May 2012. Only three of those have been thus far reviewed by NISA and forwarded to the Nuclear Safety Commission (NSC), which has approved Ohi-3 (Oi-3) and Ohi-4 reports. Following that the reports have to be approved by the cabinet ministers, local authorities and the central government. This process appears to be too cumbersome and should be streamlined. KEPCO restarted Ohi-3 this week with unit 4 to follow on July 18.

Some shareholders from the Japanese nine nuclear utilities have called for reduction or even elimination of use of nuclear power. The major of Osaka (city of Osaka owns 9.5% stake in KEPCO) urged the company management to abandon nuclear energy. However, all of these proposals were voted down at the annual shareholder meetings. At the TEPCO meeting, with attendance of some 4,500 shareholders, a proposal to shutdown Kashiwazaki Kariva units and replace those with gas-turbine generators were voted down. TEPCO is relying on the restart of those units to be fiscally viable.

TEPCO must fix design flaws and vulnerabilities with the remaining Daiichi units 5 & 6, four Daini units, and seven Kashiwazaki Kariva units in order to successfully fight the restart opposition. TEPCO plans to restart Kashiwazaki Kariva in the fiscal year starting April 1, 2013. The governor of Niigata Prefecture has expressed opposition to restarts in his prefecture. An excellent guideline for the upgrades TEPCO should consider is the package of 30 new regulatory requirements announced by Andre-Claude Lacoste, Authorite de Surete Nucleaire (ASN) chief in France in addition to those proposed by NISA issued on February the 17th. These include bunkered power supply systems, robust water-proof diesel generators, ‘rapid reaction force’ of experts and engineers that can be employed on short notice at any of 58 Electricite de France (EDF) power plants. They should be capable of ‘intervening’ during an emergency at multi-unit sites as well.

Kagoshima governor Yuichiro Ito, supporting the restart of the two-unit Sendai plant, defeated his opponent comfortably who wanted to scrap further use of nuclear power. This election, as pointed out by the Modern Tokyo Times writers, supports the reality that the nuclear issue isn’t the main concern of the Japanese people as the media hype is telling the world. The real issue for the majority of Japanese people like everywhere else is economics.

A Conclusion

The Kurokawa’s commission has concluded that “safety of nuclear energy in Japan and the public cannot be assured unless the regulators go through an essential transformational process. The entire organization needs to be transformed, not as a formality but in a substantial way. Japan’s regulators need to shed the insular attitude of ignoring international safety standards and transform themselves into a globally trusted entity.” This finding is indisputable. This writer would add that similar needs to be said for the nuclear utilities. In particular risk-based information needs to be massively introduced into both the public safety as well as investment risk considerations. The French regulator upgrade requirements should be given due consideration in addition to those proposed by NISA issued on February the 17th. Massive dose of education is necessary to counter atomic alarmism. The facts about radiation and its biological effects must be disseminated to the public. Once all of these steps are on the way, given the public attitude and need for continued use of nuclear power, the nuclear option in Japan should be heading towards where it was prior to the Daiichi accident.

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD is a retired nuclear safety specialist with over 40 years of experience and author of 125 nuclear safety papers presented at various international conferences.

http://moderntokyotimes.com

James Jomo and Jay Doggett

Modern Tokyo Times

Fukushima horse racing returned this weekend (Apr 7-8) to the delight of horse racing fans throughout the Tohoku region. The symbolic importance was more important than the quality racing on show because it highlights the return to normality of this part of Japan. Therefore, the reverberations could be felt not only within the horse racing community but throughout Japan where all positive news is welcomed with regards to the Tohoku region.

The events of March 11, 2011, devastated so many parts of the Tohoku region. Also, the nuclear debacle at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant remains to be a lingering problem for the nearest towns and villages. However, in many parts of this beautiful prefecture you have amazing tourist places to visit whereby the nuclear issue isn’t a factor. This being the case, meant that many individuals throughout Japan were relieved to see horse racing return to Fukushima.

After the March 11 earthquake in 2011 this racing facility was badly damaged and much work was needed to redevelop areas which were hit by the earthquake. Also, the nuclear crisis related to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant meant the race course was left vulnerable to possible contamination. Therefore, great strides have been put in place with regards to decontamination and other areas related to earthquake resistance.

The upshot of all this is the restoration of a beautiful horse racing facility which welcomed horse racing enthusiasts back. This is a far cry from being used as an evacuation facility after the 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit Japan last year.

Also, the Fukushima horse racing course is the only one in the Tohoku region which is run by the Japan Racing Association. This meant that some of the races were highlighted on several television channels this weekend. Therefore, people throughout Japan had the chance to get a positive glimpse of Fukushima – this is very important because the Tohoku region needs many re-investments and new business development plans.

Some of the horses were evacuated to the leafy Setagaya ward in Tokyo after the 9.0-magnitude earthquake struck Japan on March 11 in 2011. This highlights the genuine care of the horses which were trained locally.

Atsunobu Tokito, who is the Racecourse Director, is optimistic that horse racing lovers and other individuals will support all the hard work and visit the race course. He commented that “We’ve improved the environment so visitors can safely enjoy horse racing.” Also, you have great facilities related to dining, places for children to play, and so forth.

It is also essential that all positive developments in the Tohoku region are supported because the region needs both re-investments and new enterprises to help the region to recover. Also, you have stunning tourist places to visit in Fukushima. Therefore, while the road to recovery is still ongoing, it is clear that great progress is being made.

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Pierre Leblanc and Joachim de Villiers

Modern Tokyo Times

The chaos emanating from the March 11, 2011, earthquake which triggered the tsunami and nuclear crisis remains to be a stern challenge for the central government of Japan. Over one year later and it is reported that approximately 340,000 people are still residing in temporary homes. Therefore, with issues related to work, timescale for normal living conditions still being distant, and other important factors, it is clear that some areas face depopulation.

Tatsuo Hirano, the Japanese Reconstruction Minister, commented that “I have a sense of crisis that locals may start to leave if we don’t make significant progress….We have to do this in two to three years. We say the intensive period is the first five years but it means as soon as possible.”

The ratings of the dominant political parties have suffered because they are being blamed for the slow recovery. Of course, petty bickering within the corridors of power is a reality in all nations and the same applies to Japan. However, it was hoped that the crisis would have witnessed a sense of “togetherness” during such a bleak period.

It must be stated that many positives have been achieved since the March 11 crisis and the severity of the situation means that all national governments would have also faced an uphill struggle. However, this isn’t solace for people who have had their world turned upside down and who are living in conditions which aren’t adequate. Also, the mass uncertainty about real reconstruction and vitality of areas hit the worse, is creating a sense of foreboding for many people.

This is why Tatsuo Hirano is worried about people moving to big cities like Sendai, Tokyo, Osaka, and others. Of course, the situation near the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear facility will remain problematic irrespective of reconstruction. Other areas in Fukushima are picking up and clearly the “nuclear cloud” needs to be lifted. After all, many parts of this prefecture were never hit by the nuclear crisis and tsunami. However, the “psychological factor” is hindering tourism and other important areas of the local economy.

Tatsuo Hirano commented that “We have to hurry up but it’s not going the way local governments want…..”  This is a clear indicator that the central government and local government are at loggerheads.

Not surprisingly, the Japanese electorate is feeling discontent towards both political parties because the last thing this nation needs is bickering and red tape to prevent “real reconstruction.” Of course, it is obvious that “no magic wand” could solve all the problems because the events of March 11 were truly devastating. Also, the “nuclear cloud” hindered many other areas when all the focus should have been put on individuals who were living in temporary housing and so forth.

It remains to be seen if a new fresh impetus will be enacted because the bureaucracy is very powerful in Japan. This is good and bad because it is also essential that resources aren’t just fritted away. However, certain areas need to be given priority and it is hoped that Tatsuo Hirano will create new mechanisms along with other important individuals and organizations within the government, local governments, and the private sector.

http://moderntokyotimes.com

James Jomo and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

This article about the “Fukushima 50” is part of the Modern Tokyo Times series based on events on and after March 11, 2011. The first anniversary of this tragic event is within days and since the violent 9.0-magnitude earthquake unleashed the brutal tsunami, many terrible events unfolded quickly. Therefore, Modern Tokyo Times is paying homage to “the fallen” and remembering the “brave souls” who were on the frontline.

For the first time in world history a nation had been hit by a powerful 9.0-magnitude earthquake, which in-turn unleashed a brutal tsunami and then this tsunami triggered a nuclear crisis in Fukushima. Not only this, but you had hundreds of violent aftershocks and elements in the mass media were painting a very dark picture. This also led to panic within the embassy community and business community because many packed their bags in distant Tokyo.

Indeed, this aspect of the crisis highlighted “human weakness” and selfishness because by this time nearly 20,000 people had been killed by the potent tsunami which created untold misery and devastation. However, many individuals, irrespective of nationality, panicked in Tokyo despite Fukushima being very far away. Also, it is abundantly clear that for these individuals it was all about “the radiation scare” and not about helping individuals who faced severe hardship because of the tsunami.

Of course, the silent majority, irrespective of nationality, buckled down in Tokyo and throughout the surrounding region. However, for whole communities in parts of the Tohoku region it was all about “picking up the pieces” and “coming together.” It must be stated that many areas in Tohoku had escaped the ravages of the tsunami because basically it was coastal areas which were hit.

Similarly, in Fukushima Prefecture you had many areas whereby local residents just desired to kick-start the economy and help areas hit by the nuclear crisis. Where the tsunami hit it was a nightmare and for local residents within a certain radius of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant then whole communities would be uprooted. Not only this, individuals who resided within a certain radius of the nuclear plant, then the fear of radiation will have been unimaginable for many people.

Therefore, given the fact that many embassies fled distant Tokyo like “scared cats” one can only imagine the bravery of the “Fukushima 50” who steadfastly did their best to contain the crisis within the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. These individuals must never be forgotten because radiation for these people was a reality and the same applies to the fact that the plant could have blown up at any time. However, despite this, they stayed in order to help the people of Japan.

The article below is a past article but with the first anniversary within days, then Modern Tokyo Times wants to highlight these brave individuals. After all, the danger they faced can only be imagined in our worst nightmare but for the “Fukushima 50” they voluntarily lived this nightmare in order that they could protect people.

(Looking back on a past article which is related to remembering the tragic events that were unleashed by the brutal tsunami of March 11, 2011)

Paying Homage to the Spirit of Japan seen in the “Fukushima 50”

The March 11 earthquake which triggered the brutal and devastating tsunami which in turn created the nuclear crisis in Fukushima remains vivid in the memory. This tragic day will never be forgotten in Japan and the same applies to the international community which witnessed the tragic events which followed.

Sadly, despite enormous reconstruction and redevelopment taking place in the worse effected areas you still have many ongoing problems. This applies to the nuclear facility in Fukushima and radiation issues which remain, to more natural daily issues of people living in temporary accommodation and trying to find employment.

Any government in the world hit by this tragic event would be challenged to the full and in fairness to Japan, a lot of support mechanisms have been put into place but of course for people hit by this tragic event then so much more is needed.

In the midst of the nuclear crisis you had the “Fukushima 50” who did everything in their power to prevent a nuclear meltdown. These brave souls should never be forgotten because during the height of the crisis they worked day and night and at any time they could have been killed. Also, the reality of radiation means that we still don’t know if many of these brave souls will die from cancer in the future caused by radiation.

Irrespective if you are anti-nuclear, pro-nuclear or you believe that nuclear energy is a practical choice, it is clear that the “Fukushima 50” deserve the support of everybody. While alarming comments were being made and very natural dangers could have killed all members of the “Fukushima 50,” they merely got on with everything and worked around the clock in order to protect local citizens and to prevent a complete nuclear meltdown.

In an earlier article by Modern Tokyo Times which was published on March 18 it was commented that “Images of Fukushima have spread all over the world but the people who are trying to prevent a nuclear meltdown remain faceless and out of sight.  Therefore, they have been named the “Fukushima 50” in honor of their valor and loyalty to the cause.”

“All members of the “Fukushima 50” understand that death awaits them if the internal conditions become uncontrollable.  However, for the “Fukushima 50” they are thinking about the people of Japan and they understand that they are in the frontline and that if they perish, then countless others will follow from the worst case scenario.”

“Of course you will have tens of thousands of other “faceless individuals” who are giving everything in order to help people and many are working in dangerous and terrible conditions.  In this sense, but not from the personal danger that the “Fukushima 50” face; the “Fukushima 50” represent all individuals who are working against the clock in order to help the people of Japan.”

The article was written within 7 days of the March 11 tragedy and being based in Tokyo then Modern Tokyo Times tried its best to support Japan. After all, many embassies were closed and many people left Tokyo in panic. However, at all times the core of Modern Tokyo Times remained in the heart of Tokyo and visits were also made to Fukushima and other areas hit.

However, unlike the “Fukushima 50,” we had the luxury of being based far away and the admiration of these brave souls can’t be overstated. After all, how many people would risk their-own-skin in the face of so much carnage? This collectively applies to the knowledge that the high radiation may give you cancer in the future or that at any time the plant could have just blown up completely.

In the “valley of death” the “Fukushima 50” walked tall and showed the beauty of humanity.

It matters not if you are pro-nuclear or anti-nuclear; the real issue is their bravery, dedication and giving everything in order to protect the people who reside in Japan.

They must never be forgotten because unlike the “heroes on television” who are actors and actresses, the “Fukushima 50” are real heroes and in the “valley of death” they never flinched.

Conclusion

The first anniversary in 2012 is only days away and for many individuals it is difficult to comprehend the situation which unfolded so rapidly in areas hit by the devastating tsunami. Also, the nuclear angle did cause panic in distant Tokyo and prefectures surrounding this mega-city. However, for the “Fukushima 50” they only cared about containing the crisis and trying to help the people of Japan.

Therefore, this bravery must never be forgotten and it is essential that these “brave souls” are given all the support they need. After all, they gave everything when it would have been a million times easier to have fled.

The tragedy of March 11 is obvious and this applies to the vast numbers of people who died and even today thousands of people are still missing. This means that people left behind have no special grave to grieve and connect. Also, for other individuals the pain of so many friends and family members dying, means that issues related to suicide have increased and the same applies to psychological factors related to depression.

However, despite all the death, carnages, and sorrow, another side of humanity was shown. This applies to the “Fukushima 50” and all the brave individuals who volunteered during the height of the confusion.

Also, local police forces, the fire services, the Japanese military, American armed forces, regional welfare services, and so forth; also showed the “spirit of humanity” despite death and debris being all around in areas hit the hardest by the tsunami. Therefore, on March 11, 2012, while people remember the dead on this solemn day. It is also important to remember all those people who gave so much and who continue to support areas which are still recovering in early 2012.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

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Joachim de Villiers, James Jomo and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The solemn first anniversary of March 11 will soon take place to pay respect to all the people who died and to remember the brave individuals who helped during a period of mayhem and utter devastation. Therefore, with so many lives lost and with thousands of people still missing, and many aspects of the local economy suffering because of the destruction which followed, the recent news from Iwanuma City is welcomed.

Of course, nothing can ever erase the pain and suffering of the tsunami which killed so many individuals. Also, with thousands of people still missing, the nightmare continues and the anguish of so many is heartbreaking. However, the region needs to regenerate itself in order to survive and in the distant future the “greatest remembrance” is that new life and vitality is restored.

After all, the individuals who died because of the brutal tsunami loved Miyagi and other areas which were hit hard by the brute force of nature. Therefore, restructuring is not only therapeutic and needed economically; but it is also a way of honoring the dead by showing that the “collective spirit” could not be crushed by the brute force of nature.

Sadly, nothing can erase the brutal reality of March 11, 2011. Yet, somehow individuals, families, friends, and whole communities, which have been hit hard need to pick up the pieces and regenerate the material world. Also, with the nuclear shadow still being visible in parts of Fukushima and hitting areas like the fisheries sector, then the new mega solar power plant to be built is welcome news.

Iwanuma City in Miyagi witnessed the devastation of the tsunami at first hand and the announcement of a new mega solar power plant will help to regenerate the region. Not only this, the knock on effect of the investment and a new direction for the area is beneficial for all concerned.

It is stated that the new mega solar power plant will generate 15,000 kilowatts of electricity in the future. Apparently the costs of construction will amount to approximately 5 billion yen and help local households. Also, jobs will be generated and it is hoped that this sign of renewal will encourage other investments.

According to the Daily Yomiuri it was commented that “The generated electricity will be sold to Tohoku Electric Power Co. on the basis of the special measures law for renewable energy sources which will take effect in July. Electricity also may be supplied to Sendai Airport in an emergency.”

The road to recovery will be long but this welcome news is a sign that developments are ongoing and in the pipeline.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Ari TV (http://www.ari-tv.jp/top.html) is a clear reminder about the tenacity of the Tohoku region which was badly hit by the devastating tsunami of March 11, 2011. Therefore, with the first anniversary getting nearer to March 11, 2012, it is important to highlight this media group for all the positive things that they have done.

Since the devastating 9.0-magnitude earthquake which unleashed the brutal tsunami, this media group dug deep in order to undercover the “real stories.” This applies to highlighting the determination of the Tohoku region and how the people of Sendai have responded.

Also, because Ari TV is based in Sendai then clearly this media group can connect with local people. More important, unlike many mass media outlets who often enter and highlight an important story which is happening in Sendai, Ari TV is their around the clock. This fact enables Ari TV to express the “real feelings” of the local community and clearly strong bonds have been developed whereby this media group is informed at all times about local events, individuals who are fantastic role models, companies who are focused on regeneration, and organizations trying to help.

Ari TV (http://en.re-tohoku.jp/) also understood the international concerns after the devastating tsunami. Therefore, the introduction of the Tohoku Revival Calendar which is highlighted above was a nice touch because you can read continuous updates in English and Japanese. This aspect also highlights rebirth because clearly Ari TV is developing new international links.

It is equally vital that Ari TV is supported commercially because you have so much work to do in Sendai and throughout the Tohoku region. After all, sadly, you still have thousands of missing people in early 2012 and this aspect highlights the complete devastation of March 11, 2011. This also means that the nightmare goes on for many because you have no “closure” and “special grave” to visit and connect.

Therefore, it is essential that the local government, the central government, local businesses, businesses throughout Japan, and others, support Ari TV and all the positive work they do around the clock. After all, Ari TV can reach “local people” because this media group is fully interwoven with Sendai and the Tohoku region. Also, Sendai is the main city in Tohoku with regards to population and a healthy Sendai is vital for the regional economy.

In the photo above which was published on March 2, 2012, Ari TV is highlighting the regeneration of a shopping mall. However, unlike the glitzy areas of modern day Japan the brutal reality of the tsunami is visible in this image. Yet despite the clear limitations currently available to this shopping mall and having to move into housed shopping containers; locals don’t view the same image because to them this is a sign of rebirth and the start of a long process to normality.

Takano from Ari TV comments that “The big revival shopping area “South Sanriku SanSan Mall” opened in South Sanriku town, Miyagi, on February 25^th. These shops are temporarily housed in shipping containers. The name comes from the people’s desire to make a mall filled with smiles and energy (which is) bright like the shining sun.”

In an early article by Modern Tokyo Times the “Suzuki Farm Harvest” was highlighted and this applies to the tenaciousness of Mr. Suzuki (photo above). He fully understood that salt water had damaged the fields and it appeared impossible to regenerate in such a short period of time, if at all. However, Mr. Suzuki was adamant that he would overcome all the obstacles in front of him and this set of a chain reaction whereby local people gave him the support he needed.

This moving story is one of many by Ari TV and this is why this media group needs support. After all, Ari TV is part of the community that they represent and because they are based “on the ground,” then they can highlight unique events.

Please support Ari TV by watching their many programs in Japanese providing you are a Japanese speaker. Also, if you main language is English or it is your second language then please view the Tohoku Revival Calendar. Irrespective of langauge, Ari TV can build bridges throughout the local community and wider Tohoku region and internationally. Therefore, Ari TV is “the voice of Sendai.”

Links below:

http://en.re-tohoku.jp/ Tohoku Revival Calendar – English Version

http://www.ari-tv.jp/top.html Ari TV

http://ja-jp.facebook.com/aritv.sendai – Please contact for more information.

http://twitter.com/#!/re_tohoku_en – Please contact for more information

http://suzuki-yuukinouen.blog.ocn.ne.jp/

http://www.re-tohoku.jp Tohoku Revival Calendar – Japanese version

http://www.hayabusa2012.jp/index.html

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD

Modern Tokyo Times

Modern Tokyo Times and brief background

The 9.0-magnitude earthquake which hit Japan on March 11, 2011, sadly triggered a brutal tsunami and the nuclear crisis is still a major issue in this country. Therefore, nearly every nuclear energy power plant is currently redundant because of various tests and other factors. This means that Japan faces real energy problems and the “nuclear energy issue” remains “up in the air.”

The “real killer” was clearly the brutal tsunami and for many people who have lost loved ones the Fukushima nuclear crisis must be difficult to understand.  After all, the tsunami killed just below 20,000 people and even in 2012 thousands of people are still missing. However, the Fukushima nuclear crisis became “a political football” and “media scaremongering” created untold economic problems for Japan.

All individuals who are associated with Modern Tokyo Times and who resided in Tokyo and throughout Kanto prior to March 11, 2011, clearly stayed in Japan. Of course other writers reside outside of Japan but the point is that many foreign nationals and embassies left Tokyo because of panic and unfounded fear. Yet while these individuals were responding without real deep thoughts, the reality on the ground was that whole communities had been devastated in the Tohoku region and other areas hit by the tsunami.

Meanwhile nations like Germany which doesn’t need to worry about suffering from a brutal tsunami just “jumped the nuclear energy ship” and panicked. Indeed, if Germany had been planning to eradicate its nuclear sector before March11, 2011, then fine and well. After all, different nations will have different opinions about the nuclear angle but of course this won’t stop Germany from utilizing energy generated from the nuclear sector in France.

Turning back to Japan then the rational and irrational approach was clear for all to see and sadly the nuclear crisis in Fukushima generated the worst of humanity because many anti-nuclear groups tried to make political capital. However, the “main issue” should have been on the 19,000 plus people killed by the tsunami and the thousands of individuals who are still missing. Also, issues related to major restructuring, housing needs, developing the transportation system, and helping people who suffered because of the tsunami, should have been the main focus alongside counseling and so forth.

The writer of the article below, Dr. Vojin Joksimovich obtained his PhD in nuclear engineering and he is a retired nuclear safety specialist. Modern Tokyo Times is honored to have such an esteemed individual to enlighten people about the “bigger picture” on this issue, and other important issues.

This article is part of the Modern Tokyo Times series based on events on and after March 11, 2011, which have impacted greatly on the people of Japan. The purpose is to pay respect to the people who died and to highlight that many thousands of individuals today are still unaccounted for. Therefore, this article is one of many being published by Modern Tokyo Times prior to the first anniversary which will take place on March 11, 2012.

Fukushima Nuclear Accident: Hysteria, Irrational and Rational Reactions was written on May 30, 2011, by Dr. Vojin Joksimovich

(Looking back on a past article which is related to remembering the tragic events that were unleashed by the brutal tsunami of March 11, 2011)

Subsequent to publications of my articles Fukushima Nuclear Accident: Tsunami Induced Man-Made Disaster and Fukushima Nuclear Accident: Stunning New Revelations Regarding Unit #1 Meltdown, the purpose of this third one in the Fukushima series is to address worldwide reactions grouped into: hysteria, political irrationalities and rational responses. Media and stock market hysteria belonged in the first group. Responses of the German government, the Swiss cabinet and the Italian Council of Ministers represent the second group. The third group with rational responses is represented by political leaders in key nuclear countries: France, China, Russia, India and Japan; the nuclear regulators in the U.S., the EU, UK, Finland, etc; and leaders of some thirty plus countries which announced that they will continue with their nuclear programs.

Media Created Hysteria

The Tohoku 9.0 earthquake, fifth largest ever recorded, created a tsunami with large waves up to 40 meters, with walls of water swallowing coastal towns, has been one of the worst natural disasters in recent history with the death toll reaching just below 20,000 people, estimated damage $310 billion. The scale of the calamity is truly epic. Hence, the Fukushima nuclear accident should have been only a side show.

Not so, it immediately became the principal show. Coverage in the U.S. media replicated hysteria, sensationalism, scaremongering and disinformation that characterized coverage of the Three Mile Island (TMI) accident in 1979. It appears that coverage in Europe wasn’t much better. Initially the mainstream media paraded a stream of anti-nuclear activists who excelled in predicting an equivalent of Armageddon with cataclysmic consequences. China syndrome movie fantasies were used as an indicator what would happen if a core meltdown were to occur. It was pointed out that we were approximately the same distance from Fukushima as from Chernobyl and therefore in danger. 350,000 residents were evacuated from Chernobyl, 10 times more potentially at Fukushima.

The fact that the TMI accident resulted in a partial core-melt but with no fatalities or even radiation injuries was completely ignored. Not only that no member of the public was irradiated but the same was true for the TMI plant workers. The Fukushima accident while probably the worst accident in the history of commercial nuclear power, even worse than Chernobyl although not from the standpoint of released radioactivity to the environment, which amounted to 10% of that released in Chernobyl into the environment. The Fukushima accident amounted to the triple core meltdown plus serious damage to unit #4. All four units are now plant write-offs with huge bills for decommissioning of probably over $10 billion over the coming decade. Nonetheless it has also resulted in no fatalities or even radiation injuries including the plant personnel. 21 of them were exposed to > 100 milliSieverts and 2 to 200-250, levels harmless to human life. Integrity of the international media needs to be challenged.

The Modern Tokyo Times reported the statements made by the UK Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir John Beddington, who as early as March 15 gave a carefully measured appraisal and advised that there is nothing to fear outside of the Fukushima exclusion zone. In addition, he vindicated the Japanese government decision to implement the evacuation of residents within the 20 km radius of the plant and the advice to residents between 20 and 30 kms to stay indoors. This writer also supported the Japanese government decision as opposed to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) advice to evacuate within the radius of 50 kms.

This writer has advised many of his callers not to worry as whatever happens would be confined to Japan. One caller inquired if travelling to Hawaii was safe despite the fact that President Obama offered assurances the day earlier. I was asked on my native Serbian TV if they were safe thousands of miles away. The reporter told me how in neighboring Croatia radiation detectors were sold out. Asked what she should do, I told her to drive safely. It became obvious that the media scared people even in Europe.

Another drastic example is in the state of California where I live. In Mooresville, North Carolina, there is a company that supplies potassium iodide pills intended to block released iodine-131 in the thyroid and known as nuke pills. This company received thousands of orders, not from Japan but from California which faced no danger. The company representative said: “People calling, panicking, crying, and sending e-mails pleading.” Incidentally, the nuke pills will protect the thyroid but not other organs and will not protect against cesium.

Stock Market Hysteria

The stock markets round the globe reacted as if the nuclear option will disappear soon with a return to carbon based energy alternatives. The price of uranium slumped: Cameco shares, the largest uranium supplier lost 29%, the uranium ETF 32%, junior suppliers 30-50%. On the other hand fossil fuel polluters were up: CO2 emissions 10.8%, natural gas 13.4 %, and coal 10.8%.

A question needs to be asked if the investment managers knew that that the uranium supplies are projected to fall short of demand already in 2012 and definitely in 2013. Megatons to Megawatts agreement, signed in 1993 between the government of the Russian Federation and the Unites States expires in 2013. Under the agreement Russian Techsnabexport (Tenex) has been downblending 500 tons of highly enriched uranium (HEU) from the Soviets nuclear warheads arsenal into low enriched uranium (LEU), fuel for nuclear power plants in the U.S. and abroad. Deliveries to the USEC, Inc, acting for the U.S. government, annually provide about half the requirements for fuel in American nuclear power plants or 10% of all electricity generated in the country, more than hydro, wind and solar put together. On March 23, the USEC and Tenex inked a deal about the continued supply of LEU to USEC, which will start in 2013 and ramp up until it reaches a level in 2015 that is only about one-half the amount currently supplied under the Megatons to Megawatts program. The LEU will be supplied from Russia’s commercial enrichment facilities rather than from downblending.

In addition to 104 nuclear power plants operating in the U.S. there are another 340 plants operating worldwide with 147 expected to come on line over the next decade. In order to meet the demand mines will have to double the uranium output. This is not going to happen, except at much higher prices.

Billion-Euro Nuclear Shutdown in Germany

Geologically stable Germany has reacted as if the Fukushima accident happened in the heart of Germany. Four days after the accident Chancellor Merkel declared a three-month moratorium on nuclear power, in which eight nuclear power plants had to be shutdown immediately. An indiscriminate rationale was used: those that began operation in 1980 or earlier irrespective if they were BWRs, like Fukushima reactors, or PWRs. 8336 MW of generating capacity was removed overnight from the German power grid amounting to 41% of total German nuclear generation and 6.4% of country’s power plants. The market power of lost power generation is between 1-2.6 B Euros according to the International Energy Agency.

Replacement Cost $280 Billion

In 2001 a Social Democrat/Green government coalition limited nuclear power plant lives to an average of about 34 years. This phase-out policy was revised last year by the existing Christian Democrat/Free Democrat coalition with the effect of giving some reactors an extra eight years of operation and others extra 12. In return, the nuclear utilities were to pay a tax of 145 Euros per gram of nuclear fuel used, a total of about 2.3 B Euros per year. Subsequently, chancellor Merkel made a U-turn by announcing a moratorium to extend the plant life of Germany’s 17 reactors by an average of 12 yrs. She said: “Japan, like Germany, is a developed nation with strict safety rules, but nevertheless there was a chain of events that wasn’t expected. While Germany isn’t prone to quakes and tsunamis, it could fall victim to events we didn’t previously view as likely or possible. Now Merkel says that 2022 is a good time to completely phase out nuclear power in Germany. In June her cabinet is scheduled to meet to confirm the 2022 phase-out. Investments of more than $280 billion will be needed over the next decade to build wind turbines, coal and gas plants. Many U.S. utilities consider renewables as electrically and economically inefficient. The offshore wind farms require high voltage transmission and thus heavy expenditures.

Swiss Cabinet vs. Rational Regulator

On May 25, the Swiss cabinet decided to disallow replacement of existing aging nuclear power plants. Swiss utilities have been planning for several years to build replacements for Beznau and Muhleberg plants, after 50 years of operation, as well as a new plant built at Niederampt. If the cabinet decision gets through the parliament, the last nuclear power plant would be closed in 2034. This decision was made despite a February Referendum that supported replacement of existing plants. In addition, the Swiss regulator found no immediate danger for Swiss plants in light of the Fukushima accident. For Switzerland, a landlocked country, a tsunami was replaced with the failure of hydroelectric dams.

Italian Nuclear Moratorium

Italy’s Council of Ministers has approved a moratorium of at least one year on construction of nuclear plants. Italy was seriously considering restarting its nuclear program abandoned after the Chernobyl 1986 accident. Italy operated four nuclear plants, including Caorso and Trino, with decommissioning work under way. Italy lost about $50 billion during this nuclear shutdown and became a major importer of electricity generated by French nuclear plants. The cost of electricity has been 21 cents/kwhr compared to 13 in France. In 2008 there was a change in the government policy which led to the agreement between ENEL and EDF to build four plants.

Rational Responses: Re-Review of Nuclear Safety

The nuclear renaissance leaders (China, Russia, and India) as well as France have announced no change in their policies. The French president Sarkozy said: “We have chosen to use nuclear power, that will not change.” At the G8 annual meeting in Deauville, France, Sarkozy said: “Many among the G8 think that there is no alternative to nuclear power, even if we are convinced of the need to develop alternative energy, renewable energy. But we all want to give ourselves a very high level of regulation on nuclear safety that applies to all countries wishing to use civilian nuclear power to make the safety levels the highest ever known.

Russian PM Putin said: “No change in nuclear development plans.” China, the nuclear renaissance leader with 29 plants under construction, has only announced a freeze on new nuclear projects until 2012. Indian PM Singh said: “When cool-headed discussions take place nuclear will be one of the essential options to deal with problems like climate change and energy security.”

Japanese PM Kan (since this article you now have a new leader of Japan) has emphasized the country’s commitment to establish the “world’s highest level of nuclear safety, while thoroughly investigating the causes of the accident.” With regard to the energy policy Kan stated:” Japan would proceed with the establishment of a four-pillar policy that adds renewable energy and energy conservation measures to the measures already in place for nuclear energy and fossil fuels.” In mid-May only 17 out of Japan’s 50 remaining plants were in operation. 20 units were not operating as they had been shutdown for inspections. These plants must be returned to service in order to avoid summer power shortages.

Most countries have initiated a re-review of nuclear safety in light of the Fukushima lessons that have been learnt, which this writer considers as prudent and rational. A great deal has been learned and needs to be applied but there is no reason for panic and these reviews should be conducted in a timely fashion.

EU Stress Tests

The EU has announced stress tests for all 143 plants in its member states. After two months of arguments national safety regulators have prevailed to not explicitly include terrorism but to focus on the aspects of nuclear safety highlighted by the Fukushima accident. The push to include a criminal attack was advanced by anti-nuclear countries, Germany and Austria. Years ago Austria abandoned a plant which was built but never operated because of anti-nuclear hysteria. They even attempted to influence Slovenia and the Czech Republic to shutdown their plants.

Two initiating events are covered in the scope: earthquake and flooding. Loss of electrical supplies and station blackout, loss of ultimate heat sink and the combination of both will be analyzed with the conclusions to be applicable to other emergency situations. Plant operators should send a progress report to their regulators by August 15 and a final version by October 31. Regulators are to report progress to the European Commission (EC) on September 15 and in full by year end.

U.S. Regulator and Nuclear Industry

In the aftermath of March 11, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) ordered its resident inspectors at 104 operating plants (65 sites) to conduct an examination in light of the Fukushima accident. On May 20, the NRC issued a summary of those inspections, which have reaffirmed that every plant has the capability, including the use of so-called “B5b” strategies developed in response to the NRC order after 9/11 to maintain reactor safety following large explosions or fires to cool down reactor cores and spent fuel pools. Out of 65 sites, 12 had issues during these inspections; many dealing with training. Three out of 12 have already been resolved, while the remaining ones are being worked on. In addition, the NRC has formed a task force that is examining what lessons can be learned from Fukushima.

The U.S. nuclear industry has initiated an assessment of Fukushima events and is taking a number of actions such as: verify capability to manage severe accidents including aircraft impacts, fires and explosions, capability to manage a total loss of offsite power, capability to mitigate flooding. William Lewis, President and COO of PSEG Power, testified in the Senate and confirmed the industry commitment to learn and implement lessons learned from Fukushima. Several nuclear utilities confirmed plans are on track for new built such as the Southern Nuclear Operating Co, South Carolina Electric & Gas, Duke Power Co (with expected merger with Progress), Florida Power and Light and Luminant Power. However, the NRG, the largest owner, has pulled out from the South Texas project and written off $400 million plus investment.

South Korea Bolsters Reactor Safety

Safety inspections at all 21 operating South Korean nuclear power plants (27 items checked) have concluded that they are safe against the largest earthquakes and tsunamis that have struck the country so far. However, a massive investment program has been announced aimed at reinforcing their defenses. The inspections identified a total of 50 short and long term measures that could be taken to enhance safety. South Korea generates 40% of its electricity from nuclear power plants plus five units under construction.

Three European Regulators

Safety authorities of three European countries asserted that there was no reason to shutdown nuclear plants in the aftermath of Fukushima, despite widely different political views on the technology side: UK, Finland and Germany (yes, Germany).

The UK regulator has stated: “Analysis of Fukushima has not revealed any gaps in the scope of depth of the Safety Assessment Principles,” on which the UK regulation is based. However, the regulator has committed to undertake a formal review of the principles.

The Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Agency (STUK) found “no new threat factors or deficiencies that would require immediate safety improvements.” Nevertheless, the Finnish plant operators will have to satisfy the regulator with regard to the flooding scenarios and sustained emergency power provisions.

The German regulator covered similar ground but included aircraft impact for which the nuclear plants should be prepared.

Conclusion by Modern Tokyo Times

It must be remembered that many facts have been made clear after this article was first published on May 30, 2011. Therefore, this must be taken into consideration but clearly the approach by Dr. Vojin Joksimovich was based on “real issues” related to the nuclear crisis. This approach was sadly missing by many writers who created easy headlines to suit either their respective agenda or because their knowledge was lacking.

The nuclear issue is ongoing in Japan because the nuclear energy future of this nation remains up in the air. Japan may follow Germany in the long-term while trying to obtain international contracts, for example like the nuclear agreement with Vietnam. Or alternatively, political leaders may believe that the nuclear sector is needed because of the lack of natural resources in Japan.

Either way, providing the issue is debated by all sides and based on “real issues” then most individuals will be happy with the conclusion. It is abundantly clear that the issue is complex and individuals are divided in Japan.

It will soon be the first anniversary of March 11, 2011, but with thousands of people still missing, the nuclear issue, housing problems, and the need to attract new investments, then clearly much still needs to be done. March 11, 2012, will be a very difficult day in Japan because of the pain and suffering which took place the year before on this day. Therefore, while much healing will have been done in the past year it is still factual that the “psychological aftershocks” remain embedded within the psyche – of course, this notably applies to people who suffered the most.

Writer had the PhD in nuclear engineering and is a retired nuclear safety specialist

Dr. Vojin Joksimovich is a highly claimed specialist.

http://moderntokyotimes.com/2011/05/30/fukushima-nuclear-accident-hysteria-irrational-and-rational-reactions/ (Original article was published on May 30, 2011 – this article is part of the Modern Tokyo Times bunch of articles related to the tragedy of March 11, 2011, when a powerful 9.0-magnitude earthquake unleashed a brutal tsunami. This article (and others) is focused on looking back on events before the first anniversary of this event takes place on March 11, 2012)

Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

March 11, 2011, in Japan will always remain vivid because of the utter destruction and mayhem that was caused by the tsunami which followed the 9.0-magnitude earthquake. Since this day great strides are continuing in the field of reconstruction, future developments, and laying the foundations for regeneration. However, the huge loss of life and utter devastation that was caused on this tragic day will always remain within the “psyche of Japan.”

The first anniversary will soon occur and throughout Japan and in many places throughout the world special vigils will take place. Therefore, Modern Tokyo Times will continue to look back at the various realities of March 11 in order to pay respect to the people who died.

Also, while the first anniversary is near it is clear that much work still needs to be done and “the community spirit” which helped so much is still needed in 2012. At the same time, while buildings can be restored the psychological impact of losing loved ones is enormous and each individual will cope differently. This means that great emphasis is needed on helping people who feel vulnerable and isolated.

In this article of “remembrance” the focus is on the tragedy of Okawa Elementary School in Ishinomaki. This school was hit the hardest in terms of the death ratio because out of 108 children who attended this school a shocking 74 children died because of the brutal tsunami of March 11.

Sadly, even today the bodies of four children and one teacher are still missing despite many searches to find the missing. Therefore, for these parents and loved ones who are connected with all the individuals who are still missing, they have no closure and no grave to visit.

Ishinomaki and Okawa Elementary School

(Looking back on a past article and conclusion)

The Okawa Elementary School in Ishinomaki is where the single most devastating loss of life for children occurred. Of the 108 children who went to Okawa Elementary School a staggering 74 children were swept away by the brutal March 11 tsunami. The cries of pain were intense and sadly by early 2012 four children still had not been found and the search continues.

Tens of thousands of people were killed by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake which unleashed such a potent and deadly tsunami on March 11. Therefore, it may appear insensitive to highlight one single tragedy when so many tragedies occurred. However, the death of so many children “hits you deep inside.”

Also traumatic, is the feeling of parents who had the opportunity to collect their children but stayed home. After all, of the 34 children who survived this tragic day the main reason behind this figure is because 26 children were picked up by their parents. Therefore, only 8 children survived under the care and supervision of teachers from Okawa Elementary School.

One parent called Katsura Sato who lost her daughter Mizuho, stated “After the quake, I heard there would be a tsunami, but she was at the elementary school, so I thought she would be safe…….I just want to know how she spent her last minutes.”

Therefore, the majority of children who survived did so because their parents collected them. The psychological impact of this fact is enormous and while grief, questions asked to school authorities, anger, and other factors will have been strong at first, in time “what if” will enter the psyche even more. Also, the sight of seeing surviving children in the local community is a grim reminder that the outcome could have been so different.

This isn’t intended to pin the blame on anybody because March 11 was just a tragic day whereby events engulfed many communities. However, the psychological impact of the tragic loss of life and why the majority of children picked up survived, will torment the souls of the living for the rest of their time on this earth.

Even more galling for all surviving parents is that other schools in the same area escaped the deadly tsunami and parents demand to know what really happened on this fateful day. However, just like parents who had the chance to pick up their children, it was just a tragedy that was never intended and school teachers did everything in their power to protect the children in their care.

Sadly, however, events transpired negatively because all good intensions were cut off and the initial decision to take the children to high ground was changed because many trees had fallen. Therefore, the route became hard to climb and teachers feared that falling trees and the environment may harm the children.

Apparently, teachers then debated on the best option and many vital minutes were lost. After this, the fateful decision to walk to the elevated bridge was taken but by this time the tsunami was engulfing everything in its way.

The final minutes will have been a nightmare and desperation will have led to internal chaos and fear. Therefore, the day which began so normal had turned into “a sea of death” because 74 young children, alongside teachers who perished, were cruelly taken from this world.  Also, for the children who are still missing then the grave lies empty and this is clearly causing added pain and anguish.

Many parents showed their anger when a special meeting was held but others tried to understand that the school authorities at Okawa Elementary School had tried to protect the children.

In time, the true events of what happened will become known and in the cold light of day the facts will come together like a jigsaw.  However, the speed of the tsunami was great and damage by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake meant that many trees, buildings, and roads will have been damaged.

The teachers who perished did everything in their power and just like parents who had the chance to pick up their children nobody had made their decisions on ill-will. On the contrary, everybody believed that their decisions would safeguard the children and parents and teachers only wanted to protect the kids from danger.

Today the community is rebuilding without the children and adults who perished and clearly nothing will ever be the same. However, somehow individuals and the community must work together and re-build but the road ahead will be fraught with pain and emptiness.

Individuals are complex and children who survived may appear weak but often children are much stronger than adults think. Therefore, everybody will deal with the trauma differently.

Okawa Elementary School in Ishinomaki will always be remembered and it is essential that strong support mechanisms are provided by the local authority and central government.

“The ray of sunshine” that the dead children provided in their life will always “burn bright” in the hearts of parents and grandparents of the dead children. Therefore, one can only hope that all surviving people involved in this tragedy will one day find peace.

Conclusion

Sadly, even by the middle of February in 2012 four more child bodies are still missing and one teacher. Throughout the region thousands of bodies still haven’t been found therefore the grieving process can not heal. Instead, people are still searching for their loved ones and the psychological effects of this are great.

One mother called Naomi Hiratsuka who is still looking for her daughter called Koharu commented that “I’ll never be at peace if I don’t find her…She also won’t be (at peace) where she is.”

Therefore, parents, grandparents, relatives, and friends connected with Okawa Elementary School are still searching and helping the families who have missing children and the same applies to the body of the teacher. The magnitude of what happened to this single school will never be forgotten by all those who know about this tragedy.

It is hoped that one day all the missing children and the body of the teacher will be found and of course the same applies to the thousands of missing bodies throughout the region. Therefore, while the first anniversary in 2012 is only around the corner the sad reality is that the grieving process still can’t happen for many people because even now many individuals are still missing.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

James Jomo and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

March 11, 2011, will always be remembered in Japan because of the devastating tsunami which killed over 19,000 people. Before the first anniversary of March 11 takes place many articles by Modern Tokyo Times will look back at various aspects of this event. After all, the repercussions of this event are still ongoing in many areas and obviously for people who lost their loved ones, then this tragic day will forever be with them until their last moments on this earth.

One individual involved in this article resides in Tokyo and he felt the power of the 9.0-magnitude earthquake in Yurakucho, Tokyo, when the earthquake struck Japan on March 11. After this, countless numbers of aftershocks were felt for a long period and it was clear by the power of the earthquake that areas near the epicenter must have been badly damaged. However, nobody at first could imagine that 19,000 people would die from the ensuing tsunami which was triggered by the earthquake.

Also, in the days that followed the tragic events of March 11 the nuclear dimension became known and vast coverage focused on this angle. Yet despite all the mass confusion of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear crisis you had some steady heads which really helped people who reside in Japan.

Therefore, this article will turn the clock back and focus on the words of Sir John Beddington because he was “an important rock” during a time of mass confusion. After all, on the one hand you had individuals who had lost so much and tens of thousands of people being killed; but on the other hand the fear of radiation was highlighted and not always based on realism. This meant that endless scaremongering led to many people leaving Japan or moving to other parts of Japan which were well away from any perceived danger during the initial period.

The British Embassy in Tokyo and Sir John Beddington: Fukushima crisis

(Looking back on a past article and conclusion)

March 11 in Tokyo was a very eventful day because the powerful 9.0-magnitude earthquake violently shook the capital of Japan many times. Having resided in Tokyo for many years then earthquakes are nothing new and usually you just go with the flow and soon it is over.  However, this day was very different because the force was enormous and it felt like the ground was going to open up.

The first few hours witnessed aftershock after aftershock and it seemed like it wasn’t going to end.  In Yurakucho and Ginza, where I was aimlessly wandering around, the high octane nature of fashion suddenly felt unimportant and the notion of reality was like an illusion.

After several hours of uncertainty people in Tokyo were still unaware about what was happening in distant Miyagi, Iwate, and Fukushima.  The news on television was mentioning that a tsunami had followed the original earthquake but information was patchy. Therefore, during this period most people in Tokyo believed that tens of people or a few hundred people may have died but nobody could have imagined the real devastation.

Not only this, but Fukushima was not even on the radar in Tokyo during the early period and most people, me included, just watched the breaking news on wide television screens in buildings where they are available.  The train system was in shut-down mode and the aftershocks were many, therefore, it was all about biding your time and trying to contact friends if possible or somehow finding your way home.

The next few days felt extremely strange in Kanagawa, Tokyo and Saitama, where I am based.  Also, more details were emerging about Fukushima and the Daiichi nuclear plant and this story was picked up by the global media.

At the same time it was becoming more apparent that thousands of people had perished and by the end of a week or so then clearly this figure was rising to the tens of thousands. Images of Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima were being shown daily and the footage was horrendous. This applies to images of the tsunami sweeping away villages and towns and the ongoing nuclear crisis in Fukushima.

Many international news agencies were painting a picture that was genuine with regards to the tsunami but completely over the top when it came to Fukushima.  This created a panic and many embassies closed and vast numbers of foreign nationals began to leave.

Of course, at no point was I going to leave because Tokyo is my home and for better or worse it is my shared city along with my beloved Manchester.  However, just like in all events you had a voice of reason amidst the scaremongers and this voice of reason belonged to Sir John Beddington.

In my earlier article called British scientific adviser: nothing to fear outside of Fukushima exclusion zone which I wrote on March 17 in Tokyo, I highlight this man of wisdom and deep knowledge.  I commented that “The British Embassy in Tokyo on March 15th invited the Government’s Chief Scientific Professor, Sir John Beddington, to answer deep and difficult questions related to the Fukushima nuclear power plant.  Sir John Beddington replied and gave detailed information about the most likely outcome and his opinion about events which have been reported in the press.”

Sir John Beddington stated “…what I would really re-emphasize is that this is very problematic for the area and the immediate vicinity and one has to have concerns for the people working there. Beyond the 20 or 30 kilometres, it’s really not an issue for health.”

Therefore, after reading the full transcript of what Sir John Beddington stated I felt re-assured and completely vindicated about telling people to stay in Tokyo. This applies to a few individuals I know who hit the panic button.

Turning back to my article I stated that “at all times, it appears that the British point of view is that Tokyo is very safe and the same applies to all areas outside of the exclusion zone of the Fukushima nuclear plant but 30km was mentioned to be extremely safe, therefore, the exclusion zone may be added if developments become severe and meltdown actually happens.”

Sir John Beddington was a tower of strength in the following days and weeks after March 11. Of course some of his views may have changed given the release of further information but the fundamentals will remain the same.

On the other side you had scaremongers and one writer for the BBC was clearly out of order.  Therefore, in another article I commented that “According to Rupert Wingfield-Hayes you would believe that all Tokyoites are panicking and are in a flux because of events since the devastating earthquake.  He states in his article called “The eerie quiet of Tokyo hides Japan’s shock and anxiety,” which was published by the BBC, that “The threat to Tokyo’s 30 million people is invisible.  Everyone is now asking themselves the same question.  When does the crisis unfolding at the Fukushima nuclear plant 150 miles (240km) to the north cross that invisible line when you decide the risk of staying here is too high?”

Sadly you had many Rupert Wingfield-Hayes who were adding fuel to the fire but luckily words of wisdom were being stated by people of deep knowledge like Sir John Beddington.

Therefore, relatives and friends in many lands were hanging on his words and if only the media heeded his sound advice.  However, you have many agendas and this applies to environmentalists, anti-nuclear lobby, and many other factors.

Yet for people like myself, I followed the advice of Sir John Beddington and after reading his pearls of wisdom I just knuckled down and got on with life.  After all, Tokyoites were very lucky to escape the ravages of the earthquake, tsunami and radiation from Fukushima.

Conclusion in 2012

Individuals like Sir John Beddington were calming influences during a time of mayhem because he and others with great knowledge of the nuclear crisis, spoke with clarity at all times. In many articles you had enormous scaremongering and this led to mass confusion. Also, the anti-nuclear brigade was whipping up the crisis for personal political goals and many journalists showed the “shallowness of their profession” because far too many were jumping to unfounded conclusions.

However, thankfully, Sir John Beddington and the British Embassy in Tokyo played an important role for both British nationals and for everybody who resides in Japan who wanted sound knowledge and guidance. At the time it would have been easy to follow the scaremongering crowd but “some ships” spoke with clarity and helped the situation.

Fukushima remains problematic and nobody desires to gloss away this event and how Japan and the world grapples with nuclear energy. For some nations like Germany, enough is enough. However, for other nations like America, Armenia, China, France, India, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and others, then new nuclear plants or the export of nuclear knowledge is in the pipeline.

However, turning back to the events of March 11 and the nuclear angle, then without a shadow of a doubt Sir John Beddington was an extremely calming influence because of his clarity and the facts he gave.

The British Embassy in Tokyo

http://ukinjapan.fco.gov.uk/en/

http://moderntokyotimes.com/2011/03/17/british-scientific-adviser-nothing-to-fear-outside-of-fukushima-exclusion-zone/

http://moderntokyotimes.com/2011/03/21/the-reality-and-unreality-of-tokyo-amidst-the-hype-of-the-media/

http://moderntokyotimes.com