Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Senkaku-Diaoyu tensions

The government of China is intent on spreading its power projection and installing more clout over disputed islands and islets with several regional nations.  China announced major plans which are to be implemented over the next five years. The government of China is clearly not aiming this new change at any one regional nation however part of this plan is aimed at the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands with Japan.

The modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and all divisions within the armed forces of China is an ongoing reality.  China clearly views the situation to be self-defensive but tensions over these disputed islands alongside the Spratlys, and other sensitive areas, with other regional nations, is hindering China’s future sphere of influence.

China also believes that time is on the side of China because America’s spiraling debt and Japan’s lack of leadership and internal demographic and economic issues; means that powers in Beijing believe that only an energetic China can expand its zone of interest.

Also, China which owes a huge amount of America’s debt is also spreading its power over Taiwan because of the ever increasing volume of trade.  China is hoping that Taiwan will be sucked into China’s orbit and that a careful nationalist policy under central control will further eradicate and zap the energy of Taiwan.

Japan’s policy over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is seen to be in a flux because the political merry-go-round means that you don’t have any long-term binding policies.

More important, China is fully aware that Japan is involved with territorial disputes with all regional powers and the Russian Federation and South Korea are also weary of Japan’s intentions.

The Russian Federation clearly is increasing its stranglehold over the disputed territories.  Also, the Russian Federation understands that Japan over relies on Middle East oil therefore leaders in Moscow believe that they hold all the aces.

Sun Shuxian, China Marine Surveillance, commented that the frequency of sea patrols would be more frequent in order “to strengthen law enforcement in Chinese-related waters.”

Sun Shuxian also gave information about another 36 inspection ships being added to China’s Marine Surveillance and another 1,000 personnel would be recruited in order to monitor important and sensitive areas.  He reported that these measures would be implemented over the next five years.

China also believes that America’s containment of Japan will continue and this will restrict Japan’s hand because America would not desire to become embroiled in a major dispute between China and Japan.

It must be added that these tensions are nothing new but China in the past was hindered by an outdated military and limited economic and political leverages.

However, the new China since Deng Xiaoping is based on economic expansion and now this is being backed by greater political power.  At the same time the modernization of the armed forces of China continues to grow and the military budget is able to meet this military modernization.

China does not desire an open conflict with any regional nation and they hope that natural power projections based on trade and energy links will increase China’s influence.

China also understands that Japan’s dispute with the Russian Federation is hindering Japan’s energy policy and this applies to being over reliant on oil from the Middle East.

Japanese politicians may bluster but unlike the one-party-state in China which can implement genuine long-term policies. It appears that the political leadership in Japan is unable to do the same and because of major structural problems within the economic and political system; then China believes that power projection in these disputed areas belongs to Beijing and not Tokyo.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Political merry go round in Japan

 Japanese politics is a wonderland of revolving prime ministers and a deep rooted desire to oust political leaders because of petty infighting and factional fighting.  Indeed, the country of Japan appears to be not only politically naïve but further more they don’t seem to care about international opinion or the standing of Japan in the international arena.

Therefore, not surprisingly, the knives are out for PM Naoto Kan, the leader of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ); and being Japan then the knives are out for him from within the DPJ and the main opposition party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

After the last national election in Japan, Professor Jeffery Kingston, Tokyo Temple University, commented that “A lot of people think that (the election) was a diversion from the real problems” and “All of this sort of political maneuvering looks to the Japanese people, and probably to the rest of the world, like reshuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.”

Knowing the reality of Japanese politics then true to form the usual resignation calls are being demanded and PM Kan is being lambasted by powerful people within the DPJ and from the main opposition party, the LDP.

It must be mentioned that the political merry-go-round even applies to major political leaders turning against their former political affiliation.  Therefore, the DPJ bigwig, Ichiro Ozawa, once was a fully fledged member of the LDP but then he left and belonged to several different political parties but lastly he moved to the DPJ.

The international community is clearly behind Japan because of the terrible loss of life after the earthquake unleashed a brutal and potent tsunami which swept away everything in its path. 

Also, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant crisis means that you have genuine sympathy throughout the international community. 

Alas, media scenes of strong community bonds and a sense of the “Dunkirk spirit” do not belong to the political scene.  Instead, it is resignation time and sadly many Japanese people appear to be jumping on the bandwagon because the Asahi Shimbum reported that 67 per cent of respondents are displeased with PM Kan and similar findings have been expressed in the Mainichi Shimbun.

Yet, if people and politicians turned the clock back then it is apparent that a lot of hypocrisy is being handed out and the electorate must have missed twenty years of minor economic growth to periods of stagnation.

Sadakuza Tanigaki, president of the LDP, did manage to refrain from asking PM Kan to resign for several weeks and Ichiro Ozawa also remained quiet.  However, true to form Tanigaki is now putting pressure on PM Kan to resign and the usual “political cockroach,” Ichiro Ozawa, is also lambasting the prime minister despite belonging to the same political party.

Tokyo must be a chamber of political deceit where factions squabble over petty issues and plot the downfall of another prime minister.

Of course, Sadakuza Tanigaki and Ichiro Ozawa will keep quiet about the strong links between the LDP and TEPCO. Ichiro Ozawa can point to the fact that his links are more distant and he no longer belongs to the LDP but clearly he was part and parcel of a political party which had deep links to TEPCO.

However, for Sadakazu Tanigaki the situation of close ties with TEPCO is more problematic and this applies to political donations in recent years.  Therefore, while the president of the LDP is lambasting PM Kan and blaming him for the current ills, he clearly is neglecting to focus on the “convenient” relationship between the LDP and TEPCO.

Sadakuza Tanigaki stated that “The time has come for (Kan) to decide whether he stays or not…It would be extremely sorrowful if Kan stayed.”

Ichiro Ozawa, of course, also rebuked PM Kan because he stated that “No signs of Prime Minister Kan’s leadership are seen in the measures that the irresponsible administration is taking, and the damage from the disaster may spread further.”

For international readers who may not understand Ichiro Ozawa, then yes, he does belong to the same ruling DPJ and he is putting enormous pressure on the leader of the DPJ. Not only this, Ichiro Ozawa is clearly ridiculing the administration and this implies that he does not trust many members of the DPJ.

This begs the question why he doesn’t resign from the DPJ or why he isn’t forced out of the DPJ.  Surely, it is clear to PM Kan that this powerful bigwig within his own political party desires power and to create instability within the DPJ.

It could well be that PM Kan is thinking about the long-term future of the DPJ because he knows full well that Ichiro Ozawa cares little about this political organization.  Therefore, PM Kan must be thinking about preventing a political split because the past record of Ichiro Ozawa is one of backstabbing and destroying political movements.

Sadakuza Tanigaki should also focus on the 20 million yen in donations given to the LDP from TEPCO between 2007 and 2010.  Not only this, but clearly the link between TEPCO and the LDP runs deep and the amakudari system was milked for decades.

These donations will be the tip of the iceberg because many individual donations will have been given and the amount will add up.  Never mind, this will still not stop Sadakuza Tanigaki complaining.

Oh well, it was too much to ask for a two or three month period of no backstabbing.  Yes, welcome to the political merry-go-round where the knives in important chambers in Tokyo are being sharpened. 

Not even an earthquake, tsunami, nuclear crisis, and the loss of life of around 28,000 people, could keep political unity or a sense of dignity.

Resignation, resignation, resignation!

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times  

Ichiro Ozawa

Ichiro Ozawa once more shows the nature of politics in Japan because factionalism and boosting personal power bases is a reality for many political bigwigs. Therefore, despite the seriousness of the ongoing crisis caused by the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis in Fukushima; it is opportunistic times for Ichiro Ozawa to lambast the leader of the ruling party.

If you are an outsider to party politics in Japan then you may presume that this is an opposition attack.  In a way, it is an opposition attack but true to the nature of factionalism in Japan it is a political attack from within because Ichiro Ozawa belongs to the same Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

Instead of heeding the calls by PM Naoto Kan who states that now is a time of national unity it appears that for Ichiro Ozawa that he cares little; instead he is dreaming of being the future leader of Japan.

Therefore, Ichiro Ozawa cares little about national unity or being loyal to the party he belongs.  It is, for him, a time to “jump on the bandwagon” and blame PM Kan for ills which do not belong to the current prime minister of Japan.

After all, it is factual that the Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) had a close relationship with the government of Japan under various Liberal Democratic Party governments.  With this knowledge, and the reality that Ichiro Ozawa was once the former Chief Secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), then maybe he is suffering from memory loss?

In truth, Ichiro Ozawa is an enigmatic political leader in Japan and this applies to his energy, creativity, strong mindedness, and other positive factors.  However, he is also a self destructive destroyer and clearly he is not being loyal during a time of great trauma for Japan.

Ichiro Ozawa is known as the “shadow shogun” because of his influence which is very strong within the DPJ.  However, in recent times the funding scandal hindered his influence and image but true to the nature of Ichiro Ozawa he refuses to be “put out to grass.”

Therefore, the current crisis in Japan may be seen to be a time of opportunism for the “shadow shogun” because it appears that principles and politics do not go hand in hand with many powerful politicians.  Also, the faction based politics in Japan which is destroying the political body politic is once more rearing itself. This applies to recent comments made by Ichiro Ozawa towards his own political leader and this is further evidence of Ichiro Ozawa sinking into the pits of contempt and political shenanigans.

Ichiro Ozawa lambasted Prime Minister Naoto Kan not from sincerity but because of the desire of political office and if he destroys what he helped to create; then this will not concern him.  Therefore, the “shadow shogun” attacked his own leader and implied that the leadership of Naoto Kan is inept.

True to the nature of Ichiro Ozawa, who is tainted by the funding saga, he can say this with a straight face despite him belonging to the LDP in the past.  However, surely he had ample time to demand safety procedures or raise serious issues related to TEPCO when he belonged to the LDP.  After all, he was no junior member because at one time he was the Chief Secretary of the LDP.

Ichiro Ozawa stated that “The irresponsible way the cabinet is dealing (with the disasters), with Prime Minister Naoto Kan himself not exercising leadership, could lead to further disasters.”

He also stated that “I strongly accept the crushing defeat as the public serving notice to the Kan administration” and this applies to recent local elections which were held in Japan.

Ichiro Ozawa also stated that the “Disaster-hit victims are greatly anxious about whether (the government) can restore their lives and the state of their hometowns.”

The DPJ broke the stranglehold of LDP rule which had virtually led Japan since the ending of World War Two.  Therefore, the victory of the DPJ in 2009 was meant to usher in a new political dawn but Ichiro Ozawa belongs to the political ways of the LDP and members who jumped ship from the LDP to the DPJ share the old ways. 

Also, the DPJ is unable to break the faction based politics in Japan and until this problem is tackled then respect for politicians will remain minimal and the latest comments by Ichiro Ozawa is further evidence of the reality of politics in Japan.

Ichiro Ozawa was first elected to the Diet of Japan in 1969 and he remained within the LDP until the early 1990s.  Then he left the LDP because of opportunism because Ichiro Ozawa was close to Shin Kanemaru who wielded strong power. However, once Shin Kanemaru was embroiled in a corruption scandal in 1992 then Ichiro Ozawa decided to “jump ship” in 1993 along with Tsutomu Hata.

This created instability within the LDP and it ended their 38 year dominance of political government.  The splinter party under Tsutomu Hata and Ichiro Ozawa was called the Japan Renewal Party.

However, the Japan Socialist Party was upset by Ichiro Ozawa’s foreign policy comments and they joined a coalition with the LDP.  After this debacle the great creator and destroyer then entered the fray within the New Frontier Party which had been created in 1994 by Toshiki Kaifu.

The confusing nature of Japanese politics meant that after the New Frontier Party began to destroy itself from within; then Ichiro Ozawa once more helped to create the Liberal Party.  He even floated the notion of rejoining the LDP after forming a coalition with the LDP and Keizo Obuchi was thinking deeply about this.

Yet for Hiromu Nonaka, Junichiro Koizumi, Taku Yamasaki, Koichi Kato, and other important political figures; they would not entertain the return of Ichiro Ozawa irrespective if this happened because of a merger of the LDP and Liberal Party or if he just joined openly without a merger.

Once the door had been shut on Ichiro Ozawa within the LDP he then moved his party and joined the DPJ in 2003. He soon rose quickly because he was elected to be the head of this political organization and he soon brushed off the pension scandal which emerged in 2004 after being cleared. 

However, other scandals emerged in 2009 and it is difficult from Ichiro Ozawa to distance himself from this.  Despite this, he still dreams of being the leader of Japan and his disloyalty is clear for all to see because his political career is about self interests and self promotion.

It is time for the DPJ to become a proper political party which is based on being loyal to DPJ principles.  Ichiro Ozawa who attacked PM Naoto Kan about his response to the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear crisis, which currently engulfs Japan; should not belong to the future of the DPJ and factionalism needs to end.

PM Naoto Kan and members who are true to the DPJ should either force Ichiro Ozawa out or limit his enormous power base within the DPJ.  If not, then either he will seek to obtain power by undermining the current leader of the DPJ or he will drag the DPJ down.

After all, the “shadow shogun” is known for being a creator and destroyer; however, the usual end game is self destruction and if he drags the DPJ down then he will care little.

 leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

TEPCO and the nuclear crisis in Fukushima

The nuclear crisis in Fukushima is never ending and this is creating a huge cloud over Japan and the nuclear industry itself.  On March 20 it appeared that events were going in the right direction because Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) announced that progress was being made.  However, it is now March 28 and the last 7 days have been mainly frustrating because it is a case of one foot forward and then two steps back or sometimes progress is being made and then other problems come back to haunt TEPCO.

It is easy to jump on the bandwagon and paint a dark picture of TEPCO during this crisis but that would be too simplistic.  After all, TEPCO is in a difficult situation and given the reality that Japan is not endowed with natural resources of energy then the nuclear option appeared to be the right solution and other nations like France have gone down the same path.

It is also easy to condemn after the event but difficult to foresee a 9.0-magnitude earthquake triggering a huge tsunami with such brutal and destructive force.  Yes, TEPCO fully understands that Japan is on an earthquake fault-line and that tsunami’s are a reality in Japan and in other parts of the world.

Yet given the need for energy and with Japan being a modern nation where usage and enormous output is needed; then the nuclear option, despite the obvious dangers in Japan, was deemed to be a viable option.

Of course many anti-nuclear protestors and other people who question the nuclear sector will state that other forms of alternative energy were possible and that the nuclear option was always risky.

This is especially true given the factuality of earthquakes in Japan and the tsunami which was generated by the enormous power of the 9.0-magnitude was also a distant possibility; even if A, B, C, and other equations, had to come together in order to generate the current crisis it was a possible reality even if it seemed to be most unlikely.

Therefore, the 9.0-magnitude earthquake which unleashed the deadly tsunami came together and this was met by the reality of human failure because it is obvious that all safety mechanisms were inadequate and TEPCO seems to be going around in circles.

However, the responsibility of the current crisis does not solely belong to TEPCO or anyone.  After all, successive governments and local governments have supported the nuclear policy and tens of millions of people have benefitted every day from the power it generates in Japan. 

Also, the construction of the plant was done by other companies and clearly TEPCO is in a difficult situation. However, TEPCO itself is not to blame for Japan being prone to earthquakes and the same applies to the deadly tsunami which killed tens of thousands in Fukushima, Iwate, Miyagi, and other coastal regions hit by the earthquake and tsunami of March 11.

I am sure that the media will come up with an individual or two which forewarned the possibility of what is happening now in Fukushima; however, the reality is that successive governments, companies, and individuals, have all benefitted from nuclear energy in the past and currently do so in other parts of Japan.

Turning back to current events, then clearly no nation could adequately deal with the current situation once the Fukushima nuclear plant was damaged to such a severe degree. 

Yes, other nations may have believed that the risks were too high and that the nuclear option was always too risky in a nation like Japan given the reality of earthquakes and a potent tsunami from time to time. 

Armenia, for example, must be worried because this nation is prone to earthquakes and the nuclear plant which supplies much needed energy is clearly vulnerable. 

The tsunami in Japan added the real risk of “a possible nuclear meltdown” if all the unlikely equations came together; sadly, all the negative equations have come together and now it appears to be abundantly clear that TEPCO and Japan itself is ill-prepared to deal with the dire consequences once all the equations come together.

Therefore, while attention is badly needed on helping so many people who have been made homeless and suffer from the reality of limited amenities, alongside the psychological reality of bereavement, bewilderment, despair, hopelessness and poverty; the nuclear cloud and the fear of radiation is adding to the nightmare for people in Fukushima and other surrounding prefectures.

On March 27 the stricken nuclear plant in Fukushima once more hit the headlines because of the potential lethal levels of radiation which were detected and the fear of “a nuclear meltdown” remains.

Therefore, sixteen days after the tragedy of March 11 is witnessing the highest radiation count and this applies to readings of 1,000 millisieverts in No. 2 reactor. 

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency this figure is alarming because they state that a single dose of such potent radiation could lead to hemorrhaging.  

Yukio Edano, Chief Cabinet Secretary, and a politician who is growing in political stature because of his transparency and dedication during the crisis; commented that “We did expect to run into unforeseen difficulties, and this accumulation of high radioactivity water is one such example.”

The ongoing nuclear crisis is going to hang over many prefectures which have suffered so much pain and suffering.  Fisheries and the agriculture sector in the entire area is going to suffer and whole communities which face so much hardship are going to be hindered by recovery plans because the nuclear cloud is going to remain in the immediate future.

Yukiya Amano who is the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency clearly painted a picture which was critical.  Yukiya Amano stated that the current crisis could last weeks and months and that “This is a very serious accident by all standards……..And it is not yet over.”

TEPCO have made some progress because apparently two of the six reactors are now deemed to be safe but it is clear that serious problems remain and the lingering crisis is leaving “a dark cloud” over the nuclear sector within the minds of so many people; however, the comfort it generates and other factors mean that this battle will continue in many nations and you have no easy solution.

For now the psychological impact is much greater than reality.  After all, over 20,000 people have been killed by the earthquake and tsunami and currently you do not have one person being killed by radiation from the stricken nuclear plant in Fukushima.

However, the reality of “a nuclear meltdown” is still a possibility, even if some deem this to be unlikely; therefore, while the situation remains fraught with danger the invisible nature of radiation will not only impact on the local environment and wildlife; it will continue to hinder the economy of Japan and lead to many psychological problems.

I hasten to add that the worst case scenario is more bleak and until the stricken nuclear plant comes under control then all possibilities can happen and for people in Fukushima, and surrounding prefectures, this is one long nightmare and it is they who face a daily nightmare.

In distant Tokyo, Kobe, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Nagoya, Osaka, and other major cities; the current radiation threat is not a reality with regards to loss of life and any drifting radiation is too weak to cause alarm.

However, for the people of Fukushima and surrounding prefectures the crisis at the nuclear plant is serious and this is impacting on their quality of life.

At worst the radiation legacy may reveal tragic long term health statistics near to the nuclear plant but for now the psychological impact is great and the local environment is also suffering.

It can only be hoped that TEPCO can regain control and the sooner the better; however, long term questions remain and serious measures need to be taken in the future in Japan.

This applies to either seeking or boosting other forms of energy; or implementing real changes within the safety mechanism structures of nuclear energy; or a mixture of both in order to create an energy policy which takes into account all possible situations but does not hinder the progress of Japan.

It is clear that you have no easy solution and opinions will be divided; however, the current policy and safety regulations have failed.

The finger is being pointed at TEPCO but it is too simple because tens of millions of people and companies have benefitted from nuclear energy and construction design companies must also be scrutinized and the same applies to successive governments who supported the nuclear policy.

Japan does not need a scapegoat which may cover up the cracks; instead, real soul searching is needed and all areas need to be studied.

However, this can only happen once the Fukushima crisis is resolved; until then, the psychological war remains and the radiation cloud and possible consequences are severe.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://www.moderntokyotimes.com