Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

On the morning of March 11, 2011, everything seemed normal in trendy Tokyo because the trains were jammed packed and the city was buzzing along like always. However, during the afternoon everything changed after the powerful 9.0-magnitude earthquake hit Japan. This earthquake was different because it was extremely powerful and the aftershocks were constant and powerful for the next few weeks. At first, most people were bewildered because earthquakes happen all the time in Japan but usually you don’t notice them because they soon fade into nothing. Yet just like the brutal earthquake in Kobe, this was different. Not only this, but unknown at the time in Tokyo, the 9.0-magnitude earthquake had set off a chain of events which were horrendous. This applies to the brutal tsunami which triggered the nuclear crisis in Fukushima.

It took many days before people from all over Japan understood the real severity of the crisis. Initial reports had stated information about the tsunami but the final number of deaths was unimaginable. However, in time it became clear that over 18.000 people had been killed and that whole communities along the coast had been devastated in the Tohoku region and other areas.

The nuclear crisis also felt surreal because powerful aftershocks continued for many weeks after that initial 9.0-magnitude earthquake. Not only this, on the one hand you had many media outlets focusing on the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear crisis – but, on the other hand, over 18,000 people had perished because of the tsunami. On top of this, so many people were homeless and living in harsh conditions. Therefore, the fear of radiation in distant Tokyo felt like a selfish reaction from my point of view – of course, other people disagree because you had so much uncertainty. Yet, according to two nuclear specialists, Sir John Beddington and Dr. Vojin Joksimovich, Tokyo wasn’t threatened by the nuclear crisis in far-away Fukushima and this assured many individuals who came to read and learn about their opinions.

However, this didn’t stop many embassies closing and individuals leaving irrespective of nationality. Yet, for the overwhelming majority of Tokyoites it was a time to knuckle down and to get on with things.

Whatever the alarm was in Tokyo because of the so-called radiation scare the “real truth” was that thousands of people had been killed by the horrendous tsunami which swept everything away in its path. Also, vast numbers of people had lost their homes, property, livelihood and so much more. The gap between the reality of Tokyo during the first few weeks and the “real reality” of districts which were hit by the tsunami was not only enormous, it was unimaginable.

Therefore, with today being March 11, 2013, and being the second anniversary of the brutal tsunami which was triggered by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake; it is a time to dwell about what really happened and to remember the dead. It is equally a time to remember all the brave individuals who helped during the worse period. This applies to all volunteers, local people who helped, community leaders, the armed forces of Japan, the armed forces of America, the fire brigade, the local police force, hospital staff and people from other walks of life who chipped in during this very difficult time.

It is also sad to think that many people are still missing two years later and so many other deep issues remain. Given this, it is essential that continuing support is given to the areas which were hit the hardest. This applies to economic support, regeneration, new investments, welfare centers to help with emotional issues, and in many other important areas.

March 11, 2011, will never be forgotten and neither will the bravery of so many people who helped during this very difficult period.

http://mashable.com/2011/04/17/japan-tsunami-video/  This video shows the brutal tsunami of March 11, 2011. However, please be warned that the last few minutes show people fleeing.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Kimberly Byrne

Modern Tokyo Times

Forests are considered to be one of the most highly valued and important eco-systems around the globe, containing approximately 60-plus percent of the globe’s biodiversity. As well for a number of indigenous groups, the forests contain their livelihood as it provides not only spiritual and cultural value but medicinal and edible plants, shelter, bush meat, fruits, firewood, and a number of other goods. Forests also play an extremely fundamental role in climate regulation and preventing a large increase in the current greenhouse gas effect.

All over the world forests are beginning to disappear. Since the 1980s, deforestation rates have been increasing and have not slowed since the 1990s. The biological and ecological effects of deforestation are numerous. Deforestation causes reduced plant biomass, loss of valuable plant and animal species, reduced biological diversity, reduced ecosystem stability, species habitats disturbed and even extinction of certain species. Deforestation also increases soil erosion, increased desertification and aridity, and increase in the global greenhouse effect.

The most well-known direct causes of deforestation include urbanization, logging, converting forested lands for purposes of cattle-raising and agriculture, oil and mining exploitation, fire, and acid rain. According to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization an estimated 90 percent of total deforestation is the result of unsustainable agricultural practices.

In recent years, globalization has been a cause of deforestation in many areas. Forests are converted for cattle-raising throughout Central America, production of soy beans in Brazil, as well as pulpwood in Indonesia. In Indonesia, for example, the continued growth of global paper consumption depends on the high availability of cheap pulp used in paper mills. Therefore, a number of forests in Indonesia are being cleared for eucalyptus plantations to supply the global market with cheap raw material for paper.

Other causes related to deforestation include policies and inequalities regarding land tenure, production and consumption patterns, and even the military. With the military, the forests’ inaccessibility poses a strategic problem and is often “solved” by opening up the forest. This causes animals in the area to have to move as well as indigenous people who call the forest their home.

With massive deforestation going on today and its horrifying consequences, the nest question should be how to stop deforestation from continuing and restore the damaged ecosystems. Obviously, the first step in inhibiting deforestation is education. It is vital to instill environmental responsibility in children at a young age, as well as remind adults who may need reminding of preventative deforestation measures.

The next step is to create a number of new conservation policies that will prohibit deforestation from taking place. The policies need not to be just written, but strictly enforced as well. For example, in 2001, former United States President Bill Clinton proposed a new policy providing $150 million in funding that would aid developing countries in protecting their forests. The last step would be to restore and regrow the forests to restore their original ecosystem. Though it would take many years, it is not an impossible task.

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD

Modern Tokyo Times

The “Made in Japan” headlines prevailed in the nuclear and other trade press characterizing conclusions from the report by the Japanese Diet’s commissioned Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAIIC). The NAIIC chairman Kiyoshi Kurokawa, a medical doctor and a former president of Japan’s Science Council, wrote: “What must be admitted—very painfully—is that this was a disaster ‘Made in Japan.’ Its fundamental causes are to be found in the ingrained conventions of Japanese culture: our reflexive obedience; our reluctance to question authority; our devotion to ‘sticking with the program,’ our groupism; and our insularity.” The mindset of government and industry led the country to avoid learning the lessons of the previous major nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island (TMI) and Chernobyl. “The consequences of negligence at Fukushima stand out as catastrophic, but the mindset that supported it can be found across Japan. In recognizing that fact, each of us (every Japanese citizen) should reflect on our responsibility as individuals in a democratic society.”

The Diet, the NAIIC and it chairman should be congratulated for their courage to call a spade a spade. Other investigations, such as by the Investigation Committee on Accidents at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations established by a Cabinet decision, stopped short of blaming Japanese culture. Interestingly enough the NAIIC’s harshest criticism of the Japanese culture was only published in the English version of the report. The Japanese version was more measured blaming the response to the accident on the mindset created by such aspects as seniority systems and lifetime employment. Kurokawa believes that outside pressure can help push change in Japan.

To some observers outside of Japan, mindset (term preferred to culture) as a root cause of the Fukushima accident became obvious as early as April 2011, a month after the accident. It was much less painful for outsiders, which have experienced the Japanese nuclear culture, to arrive at the same conclusion. This writer has delivered a number of presentations titled “Fukushima: Tsunami Induced but man-made disaster.” Analyses of the TMI and Chernobyl led to the same conclusion that the mindset was the root cause reflecting complacency prevailing in the US nuclear industry as well as the Soviet one respectively. To a different degree the same conclusions would apply to non-nuclear catastrophic accidents such as Bhopal, Challenger, and AMOCO Cadiz. Piper Alpha, Exxon Valdez, 2010 BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill, even the cruise ship Costa Concordia which killed 32 people.

Kurokawa’s Report Criticism

Two articles published by the Financial Times are illustrative of Kurosawa’s report criticism in the west: Culture blame games are no way to prevent future crises by Mure Dickie, and Stop blaming Fukushima on Japan’s culture by Columbia University professor Gerald Curtis. Dickie wrote: “Focusing too heavily on culture could merely shift responsibility from institutions and individuals that took the decisions that led to disaster.” Prof. Curtis makes the same point: “To pin the blame on culture is the ultimate cop-out. If culture explains behaviour, then no one has to take responsibility. This is indeed what the report concludes when it says that the results would have been the same even with others in charge.” From my analyses of the Daiichi accident it was less than abundantly clear who actually was in charge. Hence, it is more appropriate to blame the mindset rather than individuals. I do not recall that any particular individual was blamed in the US for the TMI.

Japanese culture is top-down, which is not amenable to managing a fast propagating nuclear accident. Prof. Curtis mentioned the example of Masao Yoshida, the plant superintendent/manager, who “disobeyed orders not to use seawater to cool the reactors. Incredibly Tepco’s management initially clung to the hope that the reactors would one day be brought back to operation, something that would be impossible once seawater was injected into them.” This is a textbook example why the Japanese top-down culture is flawed. The TEPCO executives in Tokyo, who were not even in their offices when the accident took place, were simply not qualified to judge whether and when the seawater should be injected into reactors. By profession they could be lawyers or accountants with no adequate grasp for nuclear safety while the plant manager is the only person who could make an informed and timely decision. Incidentally, the new TEPCO chairman is a lawyer. Hence, in the Japanese nuclear industry cultural reform, the responsibility must be operationally delegated to the plant manager with no interference from his Tokyo office bosses in cases of a nuclear emergency.

It is conceivable that the Daiichi plant manager’s decision to inject seawater was delayed due to the Tokyo office interferences. There was no injection into the Unit 1 reactor for14 hrs and 9 mins. Difficulties in bringing in fire engines plus aftershocks were probably responsible for the injection delay. In case of the Unit 2, there was no injection for 6 hrs and 29 mins approximately 70 hrs into the accident. In that case it appears that there was hesitation to inject the seawater. The same may be true with regarding the Unit 3 with no injection for 6 hrs and 43 mins approximately 36 hrs into the accident. It would be an excellent first step in the cultural reform program to explicitly delegate the authority to the plant manager. The second step could be to appoint a chief nuclear safety officer with substantial background in nuclear safety and risk assessment.

Catastrophic Accidents

Catastrophic accidents are not random but multi-causal events. They are not acts of God but acts of people; consist of actions, decisions or omissions—like the line of dominoes (when the last domino is inserted the accident is triggered). In case of Fukushima the last domino was the tsunami  but beyond it was the man-made disaster. Because these accidents are acts of people they are highly preventable. Virtually every major accident had a precursor which should have alerted the responsible parties not only with regard to the potential of recurrence but also that the consequences might become much more serious, e.g. the 1978 Davis-Besse incident served as a precursor for the TMI.

In case of Fukushima one can argue that a precursor was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, or South Asian tsunami. The earthquake magnitude of 9.1-9.3 triggered a series of devastating tsunamis, killing over 230,000 people in fourteen countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves of up to 30 meters. TEPCO failed to make use of an in-house study that estimated the extent of damage by huge tsunamis on nuclear power plants. The study was first conducted in 2006 by a group of TEPCO employees to determine what would happen to the Unit 5 if it was hit by waves higher than the design basis value of 5.7 meters. The group estimated that if the waves exceeded 13.5 meters the station blackout would take place and it would be impossible to inject the water into the reactor or to prevent loss of the ultimate heat sink. In addition, the group estimated that it would cost about $25 million to implement measures to prevent plant inundation by flooding. In 2008, TEPCO made another estimate to determine the effects of a 10m high tsunami. However, in both cases the company failed to implement the study results. According to the NAIIC, the regulator NISA gave no instruction to the company to prepare for flooding and even told the nuclear utilities it wasn’t necessary to plan for the station blackout. This represents a text-book example of lack of safety culture on behalf of the regulator. The TEPCO decision was penny-wise pound-foolish. They had jeopardized not only the public but the investment into Daiichi and Daini plants.

Anatomy of Catastrophic Accidents

Years ago this writer had identified catastrophic accident underlying causes as the 4Ms:

• Machine–design of plants system with its basic flaws;
• Millieux—natural phenomena, operational conditions, political environment, commercial pressures;
• Man—operational crew response, maintenance errors;
• Management—basic flaws in organizational safety culture.

Progress in evolution of the Probabilistic Risk or Safety Assessment (PRA or PSA) methodology has addressed each M sequentially, i.e. machine, milliex, man, management. While the first three Ms played a part in the catastrophic accidents to a lesser degree, the 4^th M played the dominant part. The term management implies the institutional safety culture, a composite of safety cultures of the key players in the Japanese nuclear industry, e.g. nine nuclear utilities, NISA, government agencies, academia, independent experts, etc. The Fukushima accident was not any different from other industrial catastrophic accidents mentioned above.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) International Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) offered the following definition of the safety culture: “Safety culture is that assembly of characteristics and attitudes in organizations and individuals which establishes that as an overriding priority, nuclear plant safety issues receive the attention warranted by their significance.” An elaboration of this definition and a possible application to the Japanese nuclear industry is outside the scope of this article.

The Fukushima accident proves once more that the public risks from the operation of nuclear plants have been grossly overstated while the investment risks have been understated.

Overstatement of Public Risks

The Fukushima Daiichi accident, while being the worst accident in the 55-year of commercial nuclear power history, has resulted in no acute fatalities, no acute injuries, no extended hospitalizations due to radiation, and unlikely cancer fatalities in 50 years (testimony of Prof. Wade Allison in the British House of Commons). Modern radiology provides answers for why no heath effects including the 86,611 Hiroshima/Nagasaki survivor data in the time frame of 1950-2000 (only 0.6% died from radiation-induced cancers); the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chernobyl 2008 report: large number received doses less than 100mSv (cancer threshold) and no excess cancers other than the thyroid ones; French National Academies of Science and Medicine Study: UK study of radiation workers; century-old radiotherapy practices, MIT low-dose study, etc. The WHO preliminary report corroborates low dose rates measured. The researchers at Hirosaki University in northern Japan evaluated the radiation exposure and arrived at the following maximum exposures: 33mSv for adults and 23mSv for those under the age of 20. They point out that these exposures are lower than an internationally accepted limit of 50mSv. Remember that the cancer threshold is 100mSv. For some reason, the accident evaluation reports did not address this important aspect of the Fukushima accident. The American Nuclear Society (ANS) says that it was premature. But it was not.

In contrast to Fukushima over 19,000 people died from the tsunami. Had it not been for the media hype, the Daiichi accident would have been a side show. It is apparent to this writer that the Japanese government needs to pay more attention on how to protect the residents from another huge earthquake induced tsunami in addition to protecting the nuclear plants from tsunamis.

No Rational Need for Resident Evacuations

This writer asserts that evacuation of 110,000 residents cannot be justified on the basis of massive human and economic costs. The benefits to the residents cannot be quantified as illustrated with the Hirosaki University maximum exposures. However, costs of life disruptions, 13 suicides, painful relocations, school closures, restrictions in several areas not lifted yet, are quantifiable and have been in the tens of billions. The dose of 20mSv/yr used as the evacuation guideline was 10,000 times lower than the monthly dose to Japanese radiotherapy patients. An order for indoor sheltering and distribution of potassium-iodide pills would have been sufficient to protect the Fukushima Prefecture residents.

In case of Chernobyl most serious effects were caused not by radiation buy by the fear of it. After 36 hrs, 116,000 residents were forcibly evacuated. Exclusion zone to limit doses to 1mSv/yr led to evacuation of hundreds of thousands. Severe social and economic stresses included suicides, depressions, alcoholism, family dislocations, broken livelihoods, etc.

Investment Risks

Prior to the 1979 TMI accident potential financial losses associated with an accident resulting in the reactor core damage received little to zero attention. There was a huge complacency factor that a core-melt accident cannot happen despite the fact that the results of the Reactor Safety Study (RSS) were available in 1975. The TMI cleanup/decommissioning costs amounted to $1bn over 14 yrs after 45% core-melt. Post TMI, the nuclear utility industry was overwhelmed with the regulatory impact estimated at some $35bn. The mandated package resulted in substantial reduction of investment risk. However more was needed to be done to fully address the investment risks. The Chernobyl decommissioning is not over yet and the accident took place in 1986.

In case of investment risks concerns in Japan, it appears that pre-TMI climate prevailed despite the fact that the TMI happened in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986. Some 1300 earthquakes were observed in 2010 and 2000 in a prior year. Mega-thrust quakes potential was there due to existence of subduction faults with potential for huge tsunamis. Credible PRA analyses would have identified investment risks with common cause initiators such as earthquakes or floods suggesting common-sense design changes plus severe accident preparedness badly lacking during the Daiichi accident. In addition there was a 2007 Chuetsu offshore quake close to TEPCO’s seven-unit Kashiwazaki Kariwa plants. Instead of making a prudent decision, the TEPCO shareholders were compelled to accept the $12.5bn government bailout in order to help rebuild finances in exchange for up to 75% ownership of the stock by the government.

Atomic Alarmism

The media projects that the Japanese public opinion has shifted from complacency to humility while atomic alarmism is prevailing in many local governments. The radiation fear factor has massively been instilled by the media which now matches the performance of its US counterparts, which report that any radioactive release as nuclear Armageddon. The politicians then exercise their opportunistic political instincts. In addition to the media and politicians there are others to be blamed for this lack of understanding of radiation induced biological effects, including the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which propagates radiation standards. These standards are not risk based; instead the ICRP pursues the quest of absolute safety leading to as low as practicable approach.

The media-induced atomic alarmism has been prevailing in the US for decades. For that reason this writer includes 101 perspectives on radiation in his lectures. A brief summary follows. Everybody on the globe is exposed to background chronic radiation. The worldwide average is 2.4mSv/yr. At Ramsar in Iran it amounts to 10-260mSv/yr, but residents have not experienced any health effects. Diagnostic medical exams are acceptable (0.1-3mSv). In radiotherapy cancer patients receive 1,000-2,000mSv/day. The radiation is harmful at high doses, but so is aspirin. Biological effects depend on single dose and rate of absorption (mSv and mSv/month or yr). Single acute radiation syndrome (ARS) at 4,000-8,000mSv; nausea at 1,000mSv. The cancer threshold is 100mSv or 100mSv/month, below this level it is risk free.

Restart of Nuclear Plants

Japan forms the focus of an in-depth study in support of the World Economic Forum (WEF) report, New Energy Architecture: Enabling an Effective Transition, as a country that needs to ‘rationalize” and re-organize mature energy systems. Such reorganization has become more prominent after the Daiichi accident, which has led to an “unprecedented level of debate and stakeholder engagement.” Prior to the accident, Japan had been planning to meet 60% of its electricity with nuclear power in line with environmental sustainability targets to reduce CO2 emissions by 54% (from 2003 levels) by 2050. The report doesn’t question Japan’s continued need for nuclear power and notes that “a hasty withdrawal from nuclear energy could be disastrous for Japan.” The report recognizes that decommissioning of nuclear plants is expensive but that any rapid change would jeopardize Japan’s energy security and increase its dependence on fossil fuel imports.

To this writer he finds it paradoxical that 15 nuclear plants generated electricity throughout the Tohoku earthquake, while all 50 plants (four Daiichi units have been written off) were all shutdown in May/June 2012 due to opposition to restarts by local authorities after extended periodic inspections (36 units with capacity of 31.8 GWe). These plants on the Japanese west coast were not damaged by the earthquake/ tsunami. The plants on the east coast were either damaged by tsunami or were shutdown due to the government request, e.g. Hamaoka units. This nuclear shutdown created a new era for the fossil fuels with associated increase in pollution. In 2012 the fossil fuel plants generated 90% of electricity compared to 64% in 2011. The fossil fuel imports are costing about $40bn or $333 per person, per year while its carbon emissions have risen some 14% above the 1990 levels. How many people will die from elevated pollution?

The atomic alarmism has led the local authorities to oppose restarts. These plants have been subjected to the IAEA endorsed stress tests, a post-Daiichi invention which was initiated by the EU for all of its 143 plants based on a set of common criteria. . The Japanese tests are computer simulations that analyze whether a reactor can withstand disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis. The utilities have promised higher sea walls to protect against tsunamis as well as ways to prevent station blackouts. The affected utilities submitted their stress-test reports between October 2011 and May 2012. Only three of those have been thus far reviewed by NISA and forwarded to the Nuclear Safety Commission (NSC), which has approved Ohi-3 (Oi-3) and Ohi-4 reports. Following that the reports have to be approved by the cabinet ministers, local authorities and the central government. This process appears to be too cumbersome and should be streamlined. KEPCO restarted Ohi-3 this week with unit 4 to follow on July 18.

Some shareholders from the Japanese nine nuclear utilities have called for reduction or even elimination of use of nuclear power. The major of Osaka (city of Osaka owns 9.5% stake in KEPCO) urged the company management to abandon nuclear energy. However, all of these proposals were voted down at the annual shareholder meetings. At the TEPCO meeting, with attendance of some 4,500 shareholders, a proposal to shutdown Kashiwazaki Kariva units and replace those with gas-turbine generators were voted down. TEPCO is relying on the restart of those units to be fiscally viable.

TEPCO must fix design flaws and vulnerabilities with the remaining Daiichi units 5 & 6, four Daini units, and seven Kashiwazaki Kariva units in order to successfully fight the restart opposition. TEPCO plans to restart Kashiwazaki Kariva in the fiscal year starting April 1, 2013. The governor of Niigata Prefecture has expressed opposition to restarts in his prefecture. An excellent guideline for the upgrades TEPCO should consider is the package of 30 new regulatory requirements announced by Andre-Claude Lacoste, Authorite de Surete Nucleaire (ASN) chief in France in addition to those proposed by NISA issued on February the 17th. These include bunkered power supply systems, robust water-proof diesel generators, ‘rapid reaction force’ of experts and engineers that can be employed on short notice at any of 58 Electricite de France (EDF) power plants. They should be capable of ‘intervening’ during an emergency at multi-unit sites as well.

Kagoshima governor Yuichiro Ito, supporting the restart of the two-unit Sendai plant, defeated his opponent comfortably who wanted to scrap further use of nuclear power. This election, as pointed out by the Modern Tokyo Times writers, supports the reality that the nuclear issue isn’t the main concern of the Japanese people as the media hype is telling the world. The real issue for the majority of Japanese people like everywhere else is economics.

A Conclusion

The Kurokawa’s commission has concluded that “safety of nuclear energy in Japan and the public cannot be assured unless the regulators go through an essential transformational process. The entire organization needs to be transformed, not as a formality but in a substantial way. Japan’s regulators need to shed the insular attitude of ignoring international safety standards and transform themselves into a globally trusted entity.” This finding is indisputable. This writer would add that similar needs to be said for the nuclear utilities. In particular risk-based information needs to be massively introduced into both the public safety as well as investment risk considerations. The French regulator upgrade requirements should be given due consideration in addition to those proposed by NISA issued on February the 17th. Massive dose of education is necessary to counter atomic alarmism. The facts about radiation and its biological effects must be disseminated to the public. Once all of these steps are on the way, given the public attitude and need for continued use of nuclear power, the nuclear option in Japan should be heading towards where it was prior to the Daiichi accident.

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD is a retired nuclear safety specialist with over 40 years of experience and author of 125 nuclear safety papers presented at various international conferences.

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Walter Sebastian and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Ryuchi Sakamoto is continuing with his anti-nuclear energy stance and pointing out the danger of nuclear energy which he is entitled to do so. However, ironically he moved to America a long time ago despite the thousands of nuclear warheads and being a nuclear energy power. It must have escaped him that he freely moved to this nation despite this reality and clearly this reality can’t have played an important part in his relocation. Not only this, earthquakes are a serious issue in America because of many zones in this nation which face this natural menace.

If Ryuchi Sakamoto is so principled about “the dangers of nuclear energy” then moving to America would imply that he doesn’t worry enough. Also, maybe having a huge stock pile of nuclear weapons isn’t the same?  Either way, if he wants to point the finger at Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda; then clearly Ryuchi Sakamoto should look in the mirror?

Of course Ryuchi Sakamoto is entitled to reside anywhere he likes in the world and because of his talents he is lucky enough to have this opportunity. Yet clearly if he feels so unsafe with nuclear energy then it is ironic that he moved to a nation which uses nuclear energy. The issue in Fukushima shouldn’t be an “anti-nuclear football” whereby individuals distort the real picture because it is hindering the local economy.

In an article published in the Asahi Shimbun titled “Japanese will have to continue raising voices against nuclear energy,” many negative comments directed at the political process were stated. For example Ryuchi Sakamoto comments that “I have always felt discomfort about the way decisions are made in Japan based on “the mood” rather than “logic,” and without proper discussions regarding principles.”

This is a strange comment to make because the nature of politics irrespective of the nation state often appears to disenfranchise many people. The war in Iraq wasn’t supported by many citizens in the United Kingdom, America, and other nations involved, because the “weapons of mass destruction” appeared “illogical.” After all, the United Kingdom and America not only have “weapons of mass destruction,” but both nations have companies which sell “weapons of mass destruction” and in the past both nations supported the government of Iraq under Saddam Hussein.

Therefore, why is Ryuchi Sakamoto singling out Japan when this comment could apply to a host of nations?  Further on in his article he comments that “Feeling they can no longer trust those in government or the mass media, people have begun using dosimeters to measure radiation levels and creating databases by entering such information on maps. Young people have become connected through the Internet and have organized a new style of demonstrations.”

This is selective just like anyone because several members of Modern Tokyo Times have been in Tokyo when anti-nuclear demonstrations have taken place. However, Lumine 2 in Shinjuku which is a trendy fashionable company was busier in this single store on the very same day.  Therefore many “young people” are also unconnected in Tokyo and throughout Japan just like people all over the world who are unconnected by “so-called” major issues.

Ryuchi Sakamoto also commented that “Noda repeatedly referred to protecting the lifestyles of the people. But I wonder who he was referring to when he said “the people.” I took it to mean that he wanted to protect the people who were living in “the nuclear energy village.” This comment seems rather biased because many individuals who reside in Japan believe that nuclear energy is essential either in the short-term or long-term because Japan isn’t blessed with natural resources.

Of course, people will be divided on any important policy and for some individuals the nuclear sector is needed provided major safety measures are taken. Others look at the short-term reality and support this source of energy until a genuine alternative energy policy is implemented in the future. Also, many individuals will belong to the anti-nuclear camp like Ryuchi Sakamoto.

In Fukushima you have many vibrant areas like Koriyama which is very fashionable and a commercial power base in Fukushima Prefecture. Indeed, this prefecture is blessed with stunning nature and places like Ura-bandai (Urabandai) is a tourist paradise. However, because of a lot of enormous negative over-hype about the nuclear issue then many locals are suffering despite being no ill-effects in the vast majority of this beautiful part of Japan.

Therefore, when Ryuchi Sakamoto implied that Prime Minister Noda was only concerned about protecting “the nuclear energy village;” it could equally be implied that Ryuchi Sakamoto is only concerned about “protecting his own anti-nuclear objectives.” Given this, the continuing scare mongering about nuclear energy is making it even harder for the local economy of Fukushima and surrounding prefectures. Similarly, many tourists in international countries are not visiting Japan based on an enormous amount of disinformation.

Serious issues do exist in the immediate area surrounding the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Yet, the vast majority of Fukushima Prefecture is not only open for business but you have so many great places to visit. It appears that local communities are also being manipulated by aspects of the “anti-nuclear lobby.” This applies to the nuclear issue being blown up to a point which is detrimental to the overwhelming majority of residents who reside in Fukushima Prefecture.

The events of March 11, 2011, led to nearly 20,000 people dying from the brutal tsunami which was triggered by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake. Vast numbers of homes were destroyed and whole communities were devastated by the forces of nature. The nuclear crisis that emerged because of the earthquake and tsunami created another terrible dimension. However, the real issue related to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant was not the “nuclear issue” but the mismanagement of this facility and lack of real safety precautions during a time of crisis.

It may well be that Japan in the future turns away from the nuclear sector at home while exporting nuclear technology to other nations. For example Japanese companies will help Vietnam and many other nations to expand their nuclear capabilities.

However, if Japan does move away from using nuclear energy it must be based on an alternative energy policy which is in the interest of this country. In nations like the United Kingdom, America, France, and many others, the nuclear sector provides valuable energy. Also, nations like China, South Korea, and India, will expand this sector respectively in their own nations.

The nuclear issue will always divide people just like other powerful issues. However, the silent majority which isn’t anti-nuclear or pro-nuclear understand the benefits of the energy that it provides. It is also clear that many companies are worried about the rising costs of energy and future power shortages. Therefore, Prime Minister Noda was addressing a wide audience when he talked about the need to protect the interests of Japan.

Of course, individuals may disagree but when prominent newspapers give “a voice” to an individual who can influence people then this also can be deemed to be “manipulation.” Ironically, despite America being the most powerful military nuclear power in the world and using nuclear energy, this never stopped Ryuchi Sakamoto from moving to the United States. Therefore, if he felt so comfortable in moving to this nation despite this reality; then does this not distort his own “mirror?”

Ryuchi Sakamoto is perfectly entitled to be anti-nuclear energy and anti-nuclear weapons. However, to imply negatives about others related to this issue without focusing on his own reality is rather ironic.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/opinion/AJ201206150073

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Vojin Joksimovich, PhD

Modern Tokyo Times

In a series of my earlier writings published by Modern Tokyo Times, such as Chancellor Merkel and arrogance: is she really committed to save the Euro, I have expressed skepticism about the leadership qualities of Chancellor Merkel, built up in the German media as an “Iron Chancellor”—like Bismarck. Some 30 years ago Henry Kissinger complained that he could not believe in Europe until he had a single phone number to call. The German’s Stern magazine suggested that he would be happy now as he would have call only “Madame Europa,” alias Angela Merkel, who says that “If the Euro fails, Europe fails” and ultimately the “European ideal for peace.” The newly elected French President Francois Hollande rushed straight from his inauguration to visit Merkel in Berlin, which illustrates that she is indeed “Madame Europa.” Merkel is the unquestioned EU leader, but does she know how to be a leader? My answer is absolutely not.

My skepticism has applied not only to her role as dooming rather than saving the eurozone but with regard to dooming the German electric utility industry as well. Salient events which took place since have not only enhanced my skepticism but have cemented my assertions. I seem to be on the same page with billionaire George Soros, who in an interview titled “Save EU from the straight-jacket” argued that Merkel was leading Europe in the wrong direction, that which caused the 1929 depression in the US.

Merkel’s Swabian Housewife Model

Merkel’s Swabian Housewife model means: “In the long-run you can’t live beyond your means.” It postulates that debt problems are the sole responsibility of the debtor and that severe austerity measures are the answer. The consequences of this strict austerity model are now abundantly obvious: higher taxes, draconian spending cuts, severe unemployment, impoverishment, political upheavals. They undermine the capacity to service debts and credibility in capital markets.

Many are wondering whether Greece is an extreme example or just the first. Greece has been in deep recession for five years with no recovery on the horizon. It has lost almost a quarter of its GDP in these five years. Unemployment soared from 7% in 2008 to 22% in 2012, while unemployment rate for youth under 25 jumped from 21% to 51%. Despite fiscal austerity and debt restructuring, the IMF estimates that gross public debt will be 160% of the GDP in 2013, 50 points higher than in 2008. Moreover, the current account deficit—the balance of trade on goods and services—will be more than 7% of GDP this year. According to www.ekathimerini.com “in Athens, the homeless are on the streets in growing numbers, soup kitchens feed twice as many people as a year ago, and the poor are diving into garbage bins in search of scrap they can sell.” Greece is close to a breaking point living the nightmare of unrest, hunger and even anarchy.

Rioters in Greek anti-austerity protests burn German flags. A Greek newspaper depicted Merkel in a Nazi uniform above the headline “Memorandum macht frei’—an allusion to the memorandum in which Greece’s creditors demand more austerity measures and hinting at the strong slogan during the war time period. A well-known 63-yr old Greek journalist Yiorgos Trangas resents being told that he is a typical Balkan southerner, who is lazy and a schemer. “I’ve worked night and day for a half century. So we are told we’re lazy and crooks? He asked on a morning TV. He was fined $33,000 for calling Merkel by using strong language. He also accused Berlin of making Greece “a German protectorate of the Fourth Reich in southern Europe.” These types of feelings draw on sufferings endured during the war time period under German occupation.

Keynes vs. Merkel

Professors Marcus Miller and Robert Skidelsky, writing in the Financial Times (May 16 issue), on how Keynes would solve the eurozone crisis pointed out that John Maynard Keynes, in contrast to Merkel, held that both creditors and debtors should share the task of getting economies out of holes they had jointly dug. “The absolutists of contract are the real parents of revolution,” Keynes wrote in 1923 when Germany was suffering under unsustainable sovereign debt burden. While Germany vividly remembers the 1920-23 hyperinflation of this period, it was deflation and the Great Depression that brought Adolf Hitler to power in 1933.

This writer asserts that once Germany permitted Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to join the eurozone, they implicitly agreed to fiscal transfers to support economies of these countries. However, Germany and some other creditor countries refuse to issue the eurobonds. The EU would allocate funds to support the debtor nations, which would no longer seek funds individually from the capital markets. Their debts would be rescheduled with appropriate grace periods. Merkel should understand that in a democracy, you cannot relegate member countries to the Third World status.

Elections in France and Greece: Grexit

With the election returns from France and Greece the trends are obvious, ominous for the EU. Hollande campaigned on the “growth pact” to complement the fiscal pact pitting him against Merkel. Hollande has strongly backed the eurobonds in conjunction with Italy and Brussels. Two of the most influential international economic bodies, the IMF and the OECD, offered their support to Paris, Rome and Brussels. Nonetheless, Madame Europa remains defiant arguing that any co-mingling of eurozone debt would remove incentives for southern economies to adopt structural reforms. De facto she is defending the German banks.

Alexis Tsipras, the Syriza party leader that surged in popularity in Greece called for the ripping up of a “barbarous” austerity program underpinning its bailout imposed by the EU, ECB and the IMF. During his trip to Germany he appealed to German taxpayers to help his country. “Until when should German taxpayers pay into a bottomless pit? It apparently flows to the Greek economy, but in reality only the banks and bankers are being financed.” The Greek exit, or “Grexit,” from the eurozone, which was unthinkable, has become a distinct possibility. Many distinguished economists, such as Nouriel Roubini, have been suggesting for some time an amicable divorce settlement arguing that splitting up may be hard to do but it can be better than sticking to a bad marriage. Roubini argues that the whole eurozone idea has been flawed and thus is unsustainable. Five distressed peripherals—Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain—would exit, negotiating bridge financing. However, ~80% of Greeks are in favor of staying in the eurozone but then fail to vote for politicians prepared to implement “barbarous” austerity terms.

Bank of Greece Governor George Provopoulos warned that a return to drachma would be “real hell” with Greeks forced to resort to barter during the transition period between the two currencies, “trading a kilo of olive oil for three kilos of flour.” Greece imports 40% of food it consumes, all of its oil and gas and much of its medicine. Hence, there would be shortages of basic supplies. Greece wouldn’t be able to support its 11 million people. Without fuel, the army and the police wouldn’t be able to function. Social disruptions could lead to anarchy. How Greece would manage a transition from euro to drachma is totally unclear. A number of experts predict that the new drachma would fall by 50% or more against the euro. So the Greeks would pull their euros out of their bank accounts before they could be converted. Owners of Greek stocks would do the same. As markets and deposits flee, banks would collapse. The big question is what would stop the Portuguese and Spaniards from doing the same? Drachmageddon, on Radio Arvyla TV told how the drachma, kicked into outer space in 2001, crashed backed to earth as a meteor and destroyed everything.

In order to avoid this “real hell” scenario, this writer suggests that a due consideration be given to a transition from the euro to the US dollar rather than to new drachma. A bank run in several countries could force the eurozone collapse.

Merkel’s Nuclear Phase-out

Geologically stable Germany reacted as if the Fukushima nuclear accident happened in the heart of Germany rather than thousands of miles away. Obviously there is no potential for huge tsunamis in Germany. This writer, once he had an opportunity to analyze the worst accident in the 55-year history of commercial nuclear power, had characterized it as tsunami induced but man-made disaster. A number of now available Fukushima accident investigations like those by the Japanese Investigation Committee, Institute for Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) and the American Nuclear Society (ANS) support my initial assertion.  It is insulting to postulate that the German nuclear utilities, with their excellent safety record with no serious accident over the last 40 years, would respond as incompetently as the management of the Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) and the Japanese government agencies—not the plant operating staff which performed admirably in very difficult circumstances including no lights in the control room.

Blatant Political Opportunism

Nonetheless, only four days into the accident when it was unclear what exactly happened, Chancellor Merkel declared a three-month moratorium on nuclear power, in which eight nuclear power plants had to be shutdown immediately. An indiscriminate rationale was used: those that began operation in 1980 or earlier irrespective whether they were boiling water reactors (BWRs), like Fukushima reactors, or pressurized water reactors (PWRs). There was no evidence that age of reactors played part in the accident. Chernobyl Unit 4, which experienced the accident with highest release of radioactivity ever, was the youngest of the four units. 8336 MW of generating capacity was removed from the German grid overnight amounting to 41% of total nuclear generation and 4.6% of total German generating capacity. Merkel’s overreaction was politically motivated because Germany’s anti-nuclear Green party made strong headway at state elections, so she blamed the nuclear power for her defeat. After her recent disastrous election defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia (her party slumped from 35 to 26% in this most populous state) she sacked Norbert Rottgen, her environment minister and once seen as a rising star in her party. Instead she has appointed Peter Altmaier, a CDU heavyweight, as minister of energy, environment and nuclear safety.

In 2001 a Social Democrat/Green government red/green coalition limited nuclear power plant lives to an average of about 34 years. This phase-out policy was revised last year by the Merkel’s Christian Democrat/Free Democrat coalition with the effect of giving some reactors an extra eight years of operation and others extra 12. In return, the nuclear utilities were to pay a tax of 145 euro per gram of nuclear fuel which was utilized, a total of about 2.3bn per year. Merkel explained the U-turn with an absurd and irrational statement: “Japan, like Germany, is a developed nation with strict safety rules, but nevertheless there was a chain of events that wasn’t expected. While Germany isn’t prone to quakes and tsunamis, it could fall victim to events we didn’t previously view as likely or possible.” As a physicist, Merkel should have been able to understand that nuclear accidents, even as bad as Fukushima result in minimal public impact from radiation. This was demonstrated by the 1979 Three Mile Island (TMI) accident in the US. According to the UN Chernobyl Forum showed 50 victims of acute radiation but was confined to the plant workers. Chernobyl was designed as a dual purpose plant: plutonium producer for the Soviet nuclear weapons program and electricity generation. It was not built to satisfy the western nuclear safety standards and thus would not be licensable in the west like the TMI and Fukushima were.

Subsequently Merkel said that 2022 is a good time to completely phase out nuclear power in Germany based on so called “ethics” report. The government has since decided that none of those plants shutdown for three months may restart, while the remaining 15 will close progressively by 2022. Merkel said that the end date is fixed, and there will be no review clause in the legislation sent to the Federal Council of Germany’s 16 states, and that there was no need to go the parliament. The German Nuclear Society called the 2022 exit date a “sham” based on lack of clarity to replace nuclear power plants that provide 25% of nation’s electricity. The Nuclear Safety Commission had reviewed safety of German plants in light of the Fukushima accident and found them to be safe.

Fukushima Accident: No Health Effects

It is now known that the Fukushima accident resulted in no acute fatalities, no acute injuries, no extended hospitalizations due to radiation and unlikely cancer fatalities in 50 years, according to Professor Wade Allison testimony in the UK House of Commons. 210,000 Fukushima residents have undergone screening without any health effects. Prof. Allison based his testimony on the book he authored Radiation and Reason published in 2009 and thus available to Chancellor Merkel’s scientific advisers (probably not consulted).

Huge Financial Impact

Initially investments of more than $280bn were mentioned as needed to enter the age of renewables over the next decade to build wind turbines, coal and gas plants. Subsequently, the German Association of Energy and Water Industries estimated the cost of $79bn by 2020 to construct and modernize power plants mainly to compensate for the nuclear phase-out. 84 large power plants are planned: 23 offshore wind farms, 29 gas-fired plants, 17 coal-fired plants and 10 pumped- storage plants, amounting to 42 GW electric. It is not clear how Germany will cut its carbon dioxide emissions by 40% compared to 1990 levels when 19 fossil fuel plants remain under construction. 2011 carbon dioxide figures grew by 2-6% compared to the year before. Many U.S. utilities consider renewables as electrically and economically inefficient. The offshore wind farms require high voltage transmission and thus heavy expenditures. A study commissioned by the German Economic Ministry has estimated an E32bn household and industry price tag associated with the policy reversal.

Blackouts Were Close

Those on the frontline of the nuclear phase-out have been struggling to keep the lights on despite the government assertion that the conversion to renewables was on track. Tennet, the Dutch group that runs one of Germany’s four high-voltage regional networks, said: “We were lucky and are reaching the limits of what is doable.” They had to step in 1,024 times in 2011 to circumvent bottlenecks in cables, which stretch from the North Sea to the Alps. That was four times the number of interventions in the previous year. Blackouts were perilously close. Reserve power plants had to be used from Germany and Austria. Loss of a large coal plant would have necessitated load shedding or turning off the lights in certain areas across Europe. The high-voltage grid was not designed to accommodate supply surges from the south where most shutdown nuclear plant are located.

Electric Utility Losses

The principal electric utilities: RWE, E.ON, Vattenfall, and EnBW have announced major losses and write downs. Despite the enforced closure of nuclear plants, the utilities are still required to pay a tax on nuclear fuel. The German Constitutional Court and the European Court of Justice have not ruled yet on the fuel tax legality. The funds collected are intended to be used for a development of renewables.

Essen-based RWE operating profits were 30% down year-on-year, while the E.ON’s were down 39%. E.ON (the name comes from the Greek word aeon which means eternity), which operates in over 30 countries and serves over 26 million customers, reported 2010 profit of E5.9bn but a net loss of E2.2bn in 2011. EO.N’s cost-cutting measures would shed up to 11.000 out of 80,000 workers. RWE has also reported a drop in profit for the first quarter in 2012. Like E.ON, RWE is in the middle of divestment program to reduce debt in addition to cost-cutting drive. It is selling its stake in Berlin Water to the city as well as its stake in the Horizon nuclear power venture in the UK. E.ON sold Open Grid Europe, its gas transmission grid in Germany. It is E.ON’s third big disposal in its push to sell E15bn of assets by the end of 2013 to reduce debt. Both utilities are renegotiating their long-term gas supply contracts with Russia’s Gazprom and Norway’s Statoil.

Aluminum Producer Files for Bankruptcy

Voerde Aluminium announced its insolvency due to lowering pricing of the metal combined with high electricity prices no longer internationally competitive. German users of over 20 GWh/yr pay 11.95 pay eurocents/kWh vs. 6.9 cents in France, where about 75% is nuclear generated electricity. The industry suffers because electricity price raises result from the government support for renewables, and especially photovoltaics. Subsidies have encouraged power companies and property owners to add about 25 GW of solar capacity, which produced 2.4% of Germany’s power. The remaining 12 GW of nuclear capacity produced 15.3%. About 71% comes from fossil fuels. Gas and coal replaced the capacity lost by 2011 closure of eight nuclear power plants. Merkel’s government now plans to slash subsidies for new small solar plants by as much as a third.

Vojin Joksimovich is the author of three books and over 100 articles

http://moderntokyotimes.com

PS – The image of Fukushima nuclear plant applies to the early period of the crisis and does not resemble the situation today.

Pierre Leblanc and Joachim de Villiers

Modern Tokyo Times

The chaos emanating from the March 11, 2011, earthquake which triggered the tsunami and nuclear crisis remains to be a stern challenge for the central government of Japan. Over one year later and it is reported that approximately 340,000 people are still residing in temporary homes. Therefore, with issues related to work, timescale for normal living conditions still being distant, and other important factors, it is clear that some areas face depopulation.

Tatsuo Hirano, the Japanese Reconstruction Minister, commented that “I have a sense of crisis that locals may start to leave if we don’t make significant progress….We have to do this in two to three years. We say the intensive period is the first five years but it means as soon as possible.”

The ratings of the dominant political parties have suffered because they are being blamed for the slow recovery. Of course, petty bickering within the corridors of power is a reality in all nations and the same applies to Japan. However, it was hoped that the crisis would have witnessed a sense of “togetherness” during such a bleak period.

It must be stated that many positives have been achieved since the March 11 crisis and the severity of the situation means that all national governments would have also faced an uphill struggle. However, this isn’t solace for people who have had their world turned upside down and who are living in conditions which aren’t adequate. Also, the mass uncertainty about real reconstruction and vitality of areas hit the worse, is creating a sense of foreboding for many people.

This is why Tatsuo Hirano is worried about people moving to big cities like Sendai, Tokyo, Osaka, and others. Of course, the situation near the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear facility will remain problematic irrespective of reconstruction. Other areas in Fukushima are picking up and clearly the “nuclear cloud” needs to be lifted. After all, many parts of this prefecture were never hit by the nuclear crisis and tsunami. However, the “psychological factor” is hindering tourism and other important areas of the local economy.

Tatsuo Hirano commented that “We have to hurry up but it’s not going the way local governments want…..”  This is a clear indicator that the central government and local government are at loggerheads.

Not surprisingly, the Japanese electorate is feeling discontent towards both political parties because the last thing this nation needs is bickering and red tape to prevent “real reconstruction.” Of course, it is obvious that “no magic wand” could solve all the problems because the events of March 11 were truly devastating. Also, the “nuclear cloud” hindered many other areas when all the focus should have been put on individuals who were living in temporary housing and so forth.

It remains to be seen if a new fresh impetus will be enacted because the bureaucracy is very powerful in Japan. This is good and bad because it is also essential that resources aren’t just fritted away. However, certain areas need to be given priority and it is hoped that Tatsuo Hirano will create new mechanisms along with other important individuals and organizations within the government, local governments, and the private sector.

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Pierre Leblanc and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

March 11, 2011, in Japan will always remain vivid because of the utter destruction and mayhem that was caused by the tsunami which followed the 9.0-magnitude earthquake. Since this day great strides are continuing in the field of reconstruction, future developments, and laying the foundations for regeneration. However, the huge loss of life and utter devastation that was caused on this tragic day will always remain within the “psyche of Japan.”

The first anniversary will soon occur and throughout Japan and in many places throughout the world special vigils will take place. Therefore, Modern Tokyo Times will continue to look back at the various realities of March 11 in order to pay respect to the people who died.

Also, while the first anniversary is near it is clear that much work still needs to be done and “the community spirit” which helped so much is still needed in 2012. At the same time, while buildings can be restored the psychological impact of losing loved ones is enormous and each individual will cope differently. This means that great emphasis is needed on helping people who feel vulnerable and isolated.

In this article of “remembrance” the focus is on the tragedy of Okawa Elementary School in Ishinomaki. This school was hit the hardest in terms of the death ratio because out of 108 children who attended this school a shocking 74 children died because of the brutal tsunami of March 11.

Sadly, even today the bodies of four children and one teacher are still missing despite many searches to find the missing. Therefore, for these parents and loved ones who are connected with all the individuals who are still missing, they have no closure and no grave to visit.

Ishinomaki and Okawa Elementary School

(Looking back on a past article and conclusion)

The Okawa Elementary School in Ishinomaki is where the single most devastating loss of life for children occurred. Of the 108 children who went to Okawa Elementary School a staggering 74 children were swept away by the brutal March 11 tsunami. The cries of pain were intense and sadly by early 2012 four children still had not been found and the search continues.

Tens of thousands of people were killed by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake which unleashed such a potent and deadly tsunami on March 11. Therefore, it may appear insensitive to highlight one single tragedy when so many tragedies occurred. However, the death of so many children “hits you deep inside.”

Also traumatic, is the feeling of parents who had the opportunity to collect their children but stayed home. After all, of the 34 children who survived this tragic day the main reason behind this figure is because 26 children were picked up by their parents. Therefore, only 8 children survived under the care and supervision of teachers from Okawa Elementary School.

One parent called Katsura Sato who lost her daughter Mizuho, stated “After the quake, I heard there would be a tsunami, but she was at the elementary school, so I thought she would be safe…….I just want to know how she spent her last minutes.”

Therefore, the majority of children who survived did so because their parents collected them. The psychological impact of this fact is enormous and while grief, questions asked to school authorities, anger, and other factors will have been strong at first, in time “what if” will enter the psyche even more. Also, the sight of seeing surviving children in the local community is a grim reminder that the outcome could have been so different.

This isn’t intended to pin the blame on anybody because March 11 was just a tragic day whereby events engulfed many communities. However, the psychological impact of the tragic loss of life and why the majority of children picked up survived, will torment the souls of the living for the rest of their time on this earth.

Even more galling for all surviving parents is that other schools in the same area escaped the deadly tsunami and parents demand to know what really happened on this fateful day. However, just like parents who had the chance to pick up their children, it was just a tragedy that was never intended and school teachers did everything in their power to protect the children in their care.

Sadly, however, events transpired negatively because all good intensions were cut off and the initial decision to take the children to high ground was changed because many trees had fallen. Therefore, the route became hard to climb and teachers feared that falling trees and the environment may harm the children.

Apparently, teachers then debated on the best option and many vital minutes were lost. After this, the fateful decision to walk to the elevated bridge was taken but by this time the tsunami was engulfing everything in its way.

The final minutes will have been a nightmare and desperation will have led to internal chaos and fear. Therefore, the day which began so normal had turned into “a sea of death” because 74 young children, alongside teachers who perished, were cruelly taken from this world.  Also, for the children who are still missing then the grave lies empty and this is clearly causing added pain and anguish.

Many parents showed their anger when a special meeting was held but others tried to understand that the school authorities at Okawa Elementary School had tried to protect the children.

In time, the true events of what happened will become known and in the cold light of day the facts will come together like a jigsaw.  However, the speed of the tsunami was great and damage by the 9.0-magnitude earthquake meant that many trees, buildings, and roads will have been damaged.

The teachers who perished did everything in their power and just like parents who had the chance to pick up their children nobody had made their decisions on ill-will. On the contrary, everybody believed that their decisions would safeguard the children and parents and teachers only wanted to protect the kids from danger.

Today the community is rebuilding without the children and adults who perished and clearly nothing will ever be the same. However, somehow individuals and the community must work together and re-build but the road ahead will be fraught with pain and emptiness.

Individuals are complex and children who survived may appear weak but often children are much stronger than adults think. Therefore, everybody will deal with the trauma differently.

Okawa Elementary School in Ishinomaki will always be remembered and it is essential that strong support mechanisms are provided by the local authority and central government.

“The ray of sunshine” that the dead children provided in their life will always “burn bright” in the hearts of parents and grandparents of the dead children. Therefore, one can only hope that all surviving people involved in this tragedy will one day find peace.

Conclusion

Sadly, even by the middle of February in 2012 four more child bodies are still missing and one teacher. Throughout the region thousands of bodies still haven’t been found therefore the grieving process can not heal. Instead, people are still searching for their loved ones and the psychological effects of this are great.

One mother called Naomi Hiratsuka who is still looking for her daughter called Koharu commented that “I’ll never be at peace if I don’t find her…She also won’t be (at peace) where she is.”

Therefore, parents, grandparents, relatives, and friends connected with Okawa Elementary School are still searching and helping the families who have missing children and the same applies to the body of the teacher. The magnitude of what happened to this single school will never be forgotten by all those who know about this tragedy.

It is hoped that one day all the missing children and the body of the teacher will be found and of course the same applies to the thousands of missing bodies throughout the region. Therefore, while the first anniversary in 2012 is only around the corner the sad reality is that the grieving process still can’t happen for many people because even now many individuals are still missing.

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Michel Lebon and Lee Jay Walker 

Modern Tokyo Times

Ari TV (http://www.ari-tv.jp/top.html) is at the heart of Sendai and the surrounding region because this company is providing a positive image and covers local issues. This media outlet is determined to show the people of Japan and the international community, that while the March 11 tsunami took far too many lives and destroyed much of the infrastructure, it didn’t break the spirit of the people who were hit hard by this tragic event.

Therefore, Takayuki Sato http://twitter.com/#!/re_tohoku_en (Tak) and everybody at Ari TV are showing the determination of a region which is not only battling against adversity, it is doing so by focusing on the future and helping to bring fresh hope. Of course, every individual associated with Ari TV fully understands the pain and suffering which took place on March 11. However, like a phoenix rising from the ashes this media outlet wants to highlight determination, rebuilding, fresh ideas, a strong community spirit, and to show how tenacious the local people are in facing and overcoming such a tragedy.

In the photo above Tomomi Hama of Ari-TV visited a performance arts event called “Suzume Odori.” The event was held in Tokushima and Tomomi Hama highlights the fact that this city is a sister city of Sendai. Also, the people of Tokushima city have helped the people of Sendai and other areas greatly since March 11 and this shows the strong bond between local people.

The next photo highlights “Coming of Age Day” and this event is very important in Japan. Takano of Ari TV reports that 12,000 people attended this event in Sendai and that the atmosphere was electric. This image is extremely heartwarming because it shows the next generation of Sendai who need to be tenacious and play an important role in the future of the Tohoku region. Also, the image shows three beautiful ladies smiling in traditional costumes and they all look stylish and elegant.

In the next image (http://en.re-tohoku.jp/) above is the stunning view of Naruko and Ono, a director at Ari-TV, clearly adores this part of Japan. Therefore, Ono is clearly focused on showing this special place and a lovely video was done which shows many positive features. Given this, if you adore nature and want to refresh yourself afterwards by visiting Naruko Hot Spa, then why not take a break in Naruko and help the local economy?

The next photo (http://sjo-escuelaj.com/) shows children at San Jose Japanese School in Costa Rica. Mr. Kinya Morita who works at this school is showing the international concern for people who lost so much. Therefore, these children are expressing their love and warm feelings towards people whom they have never met.

In the image above are Ken Watanabe and Tomoyuki Takimoto who is a film director. Ken Watanabe is an internationally acclaimed actor and since the devastating events of March 11, it is abundantly clear that he shared in the pain and now he is involved in the regeneration. Shinichiro Takano from Ari TV mentions that both individuals have been touring around Tohoku in order to highlight the film called “Hayabusa -Harukanaru Kikan” which will be released on February 11, 2012, in this part of Japan. The host of the premiere in Miyagi was Tomomi Hama from Ari TV.

The following photo above highlights the tenaciousness of “Suzuki Farm Harvest.” It is clear that Tak from Ari TV was overwhelmed by such dedication because Mr. Suzuki fully understood that salt water had damaged the fields. However, he was adamant that he would overcome everything and local people gave him the support and help he needed. Like Tak comments, they “finally made it! Isn’t it amazing?”

These images highlight aspects of Ari TV and in another article about this media outlet it was stated by Modern Tokyo Times that “It is essential that Ari TV is supported because Takayuki Sato (Tak) and everybody at Ari TV desire to help the local community. Therefore, Ari TV is a lifeline to many people in Sendai and Miyagi prefecture and advertisement, sponsorship, viewing, and helping this company grow in many other ways, is needed because Sendai suffered greatly and this city is very powerful in the region of Tohoku.”

Therefore, please support Ari TV by viewing their websites and seeing daily images and videos of Sendai and the surrounding region. After all, Ari TV is the voice of Sendai and the calendar is also in English in order for the international community to view and read about recent events.

http://en.re-tohoku.jp/  Tohoku Revival Calendar – English Version

http://www.ari-tv.jp/top.html Ari TV 

http://ja-jp.facebook.com/people/Takayuki-Sato/100001843642568  – Please contact for more information.

http://twitter.com/#!/re_tohoku_en – Please contact for more information

http://suzuki-yuukinouen.blog.ocn.ne.jp/

http://www.re-tohoku.jp Tohoku Revival Calendar – Japanese version

http://www.hayabusa2012.jp/index.html

All images belong to Ari TV

Murad Makhmudov and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

Laal is a group which hails from Pakistan and they highlight a vibrant reality which is often neglected in many nations. This applies to a culture which is questioning and challenging normal conventions in society which are keeping people shackled. However, the beauty of Laal is that they do this by connecting their message through catchy tunes, a vibrant message and genuine passion.

The track called “Dehshatgardi Murdabad” (Death to Terrorism) is hitting the right chords and this applies to the mixture of the music on offer alongside powerful lyrics and images. Therefore, the video at the bottom of this article is well worth watching because you will be able to connect with the reasons behind their thinking.

Images in the video of men and women supporting the initial revolution in Afghanistan show sexes mingling together and without any concern about how people dress. This is a far cry from modern day Afghanistan once America, the CIA, ISI (Pakistan – Inter Services Intelligence), Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, and others, intervened and supported the forces of terrorism, killing apostates, shackling women, and so forth.

Of course, this may seem like an over simplification and not everything was rosy on the other side. However, the “other side” did not desire to enslave women, kill apostates, support terrorism, destabilize nations, and other barbaric methodologies. Therefore, it is clear that one side was more progressive than the other and clearly the side that the West and conservative Sunni Islamic nations supported, was the real threat to humanity in this part of the world.

However, it is also important to get away from the political side because the music of Laal is extremely catchy. This angle is very powerful because great thought patterns may exist but without the power of the musical side then it won’t reach far and wide. Given this, Laal have all the angles covered because their musical style is easy on the ear and you can feel their passion.

It must be remembered that in modern day Pakistan you have many individuals who yearn for the chains to be broken. Also, the beauty of Laal is that they are highlighting the duplicity of past American administrations which supported radical Sunni Islam and international terrorism. Therefore, conservative Sunni Islamic mullahs, terrorists, past American administrations, covert CIA operations supporting Islamism, and others, have all worked to destroy the moderate inner-self of Pakistan. This applies to the spirit of Pakistan which is multi-religious, multi-ethnic, secular, and represents a mosaic of different thinking.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, CIA, and Sunni Islamic terrorism

Progressives in the younger generation desire a Pakistan whereby Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, Christians, Hindus, non-religious people, women, secularists, socialists, and the entire spectrum of society, can pull together and show the common thread of humanity. It may sound idealistic given the current reality of many nations throughout the world. Yet, the lyrics are noble and with such a vibrant energy, then Laal deserve to have their voice heard and to be taken seriously.

The message of Laal doesn’t belong to the streets of any nation because their message belongs to the common thread of humanity. However, with so many “dark forces” and divisions in the world then it is easy to follow the party line.

Irrespective if you are political or apolitical, the track “Death to Terrorism” is extremely powerful and the video highlights many home truths.

http://www.tubelyrics.org/listen_y57elLCPFQ4/laal_dehshatgardi_murdabad_death_to_terrorism_

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y57elLCPFQ4&feature=related Laal and “Death to Terrorism”

http://www.laal.com.pk/Home.html  Laal homepage – please visit

leejay@moderntokyotimes.com

http://moderntokyotimes.com

Umair Ahmed Siddiqui

Modern Tokyo Times

Pakistan is still recovering from the terrible floods which devastated many areas from the middle of 2010 and recent floods during three months of torrential rain caused by monsoons in 2011, is creating another nightmare. The impact of monsoons and flash floods in this period continues to hinder many sectors and this knock on effect means that overall exports have declined. Also, vast numbers of people still need economic support from internal sources and from the international community because the situation is critical.

On 22 July, 2010, parts of Pakistan were engulfed by heavy rains associated with monsoons and this led to flash floods in the northwest and east of Pakistan. Deluges continued for the whole month and continued till the end of August. The overflow caused the Indus River and its branches to breach levees and overflow into floodplains which housed both rural and urban populations. At times river flows reached 40 times their normal levels and clearly the consequences were truly devastating. As floodwaters enthused downstream, new areas of flooding emerged in southern provinces, such as Sindh. Intentional embankment breaks were made in attempts to protect urban centers (e.g. Hyderabad); nonetheless, levee breaches affecting population clusters (e.g., Thatta city), near Karachi, felt the power of these brutal floods.

In early September, 2010, the Pakistan Climatological Department was cautionary about potential new areas of inundating in low lying areas. This applied to the southern portion of the country. At the same time, some of the populaces in other portions of the basin were returning to their damaged communities as floodwaters receded. Some of these areas had been underwater for weeks, resulting in noteworthy agrarian and property losses. Therefore, concerns about food, shelter, safe water, sanitation, health, and livelihood are still ongoing in many areas.

The long-term financial effects are more difficult to evaluate. According to The Independent, August 22, 2011, the “…mending (of the) damaged infrastructure, including uncountable demolished roads, bridges, and dams, could cost up to $15 billion.” These serious factors will impact on the speed of Pakistan’s economic growth over the next few years and this applies to the pace of the recovery of the agricultural sector; the status of millions of displaced people; and the level of international support for the relief and reconstruction of the nation needs to be maintained.

Agrarian production not only plays a vital role for Pakistan’s domestic economy, it also important for the exports of this nation. Pakistan’s rice exports in 2009 sustained many individuals and provided work and they were worth $1.8 billion in this year (accounting for 10% of all exports). Another important market is cotton and cotton yarn exports and in the same year they totaled $3.2 billion (18% of Pakistan’s total exports). Cotton is also vital for Pakistan’s other leading exports— this notably applies to clothing and other textile articles—which together were worth $5.8 billion (33% of total exports). Therefore, a slow recovery in agricultural production will adversely affect the balance of trade and potentially contribute to a balance of payments crisis and if this happens then the recovery will be further hindered.

Recent floods in 2011 demolished more than one million bales of cotton crops and the government is powerless to achieve its target of 14 million bales of yearly production. Due to this, Pakistan, being Asia’s fourth largest producer of cotton, is likely to fall back by 10-15% of its cotton production and this will hinder job creation, other markets, and lead to further monetary problems.

The hefty flood that swamped through the cotton fields endangered the commodity of this precious source of income. Therefore, the nonstop deluge has damaged the fields in Piplan Layyah, Mianwali, and Mithankot (near Multan). Regions in the Central Punjab such as Rajanpur, Lyia, Rahimyar Khan, and DG Khan, were seriously affected because they lost thousands of bales of cotton crop. Areas of Ghotki, Daherki, Sukkar, and Naushehro Feroz, Bhakkar, Jhang, Shorkot, and Mianwali (near Karachi) were also affected by floods.

The Pakistan Government fixed the yearly export target at $14 billion. However, with the production goals being ruined by the current catastrophe, it isn’t realistic given the current situation. The textile sector in Pakistan will bear a burden of more than $900 million on cotton imports from the United States, Brazil, and India. During 2010-2011, Pakistan was expecting an increase of 2.5-3.0 million bales in production, over the previous year’s production of 12.7 million bales. As per the declaration of Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA), BT cotton variety sown in Sindh and Punjab were severely affected due to rain and the resulting floods. Traders expect a relief package to cotton farmers and compensation for the ginners for losses incurred due to the devastating floods.

Spinning mills in Bangladesh have been eyeing raw cotton imports from Pakistan, as their cotton is at the lowest in many seasons because of climate factors. Also, cotton in Pakistan comes much earlier than other countries like the United States, India, and other Central Asian nations. Exporters from Pakistan have earlier agreed for exporting 15-20 thousand bales of cotton to Bangladesh. However, the ongoing crisis means that they are worried about their shipments.

Estimates state that losses due to rain are marked around the figure of 1.5 million bales. There is also no guarantee that the remaining cotton in fields will be of good quality because of climatic factors and the impact of the heavy rain. Pakistanis who import cotton are seeking to approach cotton producers from around the world in order to alleviate the situation but this increases costs and is negative for companies with limited capital. Textile made-up exporters and manufacturers are positively expecting to get cotton on easy terms. Industry analysts, therefore, predict that despite formal permission not being given, the European Union and the United States might allow free access of textile products from Pakistan.

Many villages, people, important crops, and cattle, were washed away by the flooding waters and the crisis facing Pakistan is unprecedented in the history of this nation. Improving the economic plight of the country has become imperative for the central government which also must focus on other major areas outside of this crisis. Losses caused by floods have pushed spot rates and cotton sales, and clearly this is detrimental for the nation of Pakistan. This has not only jeopardized the cotton crops, but also the national economy. Exporters are having their eyes fixed, to see if there are any better ways to enhance their business. This is not only the case with cotton crops but with many other types of important crops. Almost 50% of all crops were ruined because of the natural disaster which hit many areas. However, all Pakistani’s believe in the saying that “Defeat never comes to any man, until he admits it”. Therefore, people in Pakistan have to re-build the nation with great faith and courage in order to overcome many obstacles.

At this crucial time in the history of Pakistan the nation is in real crisis on several fronts. Although the international community responded from all over the world in 2010, sadly to say, so much more is needed in order to redevelop and restructure because further torrential rain in 2011 added to the earlier catastrophe. Also, for people who were already struggling before the floods, then the situation is dire and the winter season will create other severe problems.

It is essential that the international community and individuals help Pakistan during this difficult time. Therefore, further donations and support is badly needed and reputable agencies and organizations need to be supported at the international level and local level. After all, many people don’t even have adequate shelters, proper warm clothes, nutritious food, adequate medicines, and so forth.

TO DONATE AND FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT THE FOLLOWING:

http://www.icrc.org/eng/where-we-work/asia-pacific/pakistan/index.jsp

http://www.oxfam.org.uk/oxfam_in_action/where_we_work/pakistan.html

http://www.savethechildren.org/site/c.8rKLIXMGIpI4E/b.6150547/

http://www.usaid.gov/pk/

Modern Tokyo Times does not endorse any charity or organization. The above mentioned have high reputations and all individuals must decide on the best way to support the people of Pakistan and which charity to support.

The situation is critical and more needs to be done.

Umair Ahmed Siddiqui runs his own design studio called “CARTEL Design Studio” and provides valued consultancy information to important domestic and international companies. Also, in publication & writing he is the Foreign Correspondent for Korean Textile News Paper (www.ktnews.com) where you can find his publication on every Thursday & also writing for a Korean Fashion Magazine with the name of Fashion Clue. Recently, he joined Modern Tokyo Times and his knowledge is in high demand because of his unique vision.

Umair Ahmed Siddiqui can be contacted at u_designer@hotmail.com

(Images provided by the author and not Modern Tokyo Times)

http://moderntokyotimes.com

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8766024/Pakistan-floods-world-ignoring-humanitarian-crisis.html

Mickey Bozinovich  

Marginal Evolution

On number of occasions, various studies have been highlighted on this blog about faulty biofuel premises that can have some disastrous results in the long run, and finally, mainstream media that has more influence then this blog, is taking a notice of the flawed biofuel policy that has crept up into highest policy echelons like the EU and Kyoto Treaty.

In yesterday’s columns, Reuters analyst Gerard Wynn takes up some of these flaws and lists them.

“Adding the emissions from burning it makes bio-energy much more polluting than fossil fuels because there are extra emissions from growing the crop and because the product has a higher moisture content than oil or coal,” writes Wynn.

Then there is rotation yield problem where subsequent crops absorb less carbon then a tree that would be left there to grow.

Then the displacement flaw:

… policymakers have maintained that energy from burning plants is non-polluting because the carbon released is the same as the carbon absorbed when the plants were growing.

This ignores the fact that planting a field of energy crops displaces what was grown there before, causing uncultivated land elsewhere to be ploughed up.

But wait! There is more!

The uncultivated land ploughed elsewhere has got to be first purchased so western-subsidized corporations go over to Africa, Asia and other countries where property rights are weak or where government is coercive and they unduly disposes those folks of property who could have used it for their subsistence.

In September, International Institute for Environment and Development noted this problem with its policy briefing warning that the locals, even if compensated, the compensation is inadequate.

There is still more…

Once acquired, the uncultivated land ploughed elsewhere is the then stripped of forests and in July, the environmental group ClientEarth warned that the current biofuel policy creates incentives for farmers to strip down forests and extinguish way more carbon absorption that their replacement captures.

Then there are studies which suggest that biofuel use up more energy to produce then they supply.

Cornell professor Dr. David Pimentel is one among several whose study suggests that biofuel inputs like corn use up 29% more energy to make then they generate.

Last year, Congressional Budget Office said that cost-benefit analysis of biofuels is more about costs then benefit.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, “The costs to taxpayers of using a biofuel to reduce gasoline consumption by one gallon are $1.78 for ethanol made from corn and $3.00 for cellulosic ethanol.”

Despite all these additional faults of the current biofuel policy that Wynn does not capture, it is refreshing to see a more critical and sober look at the biofuel hoopla in the wider media. Wynn should have more follow-up pieces.

Additional documents:
The European Environment Agency Scientific Committee: Opinion of the EEA Scientific Committee on Greenhouse Gas Accounting in Relation to Bioenergy

http://marginalevolution.com/blog/archives/1827/

Please visit Marginal Evolution at http://marginalevolution.com for latest financial news.

Japan’s Nuclear Withdrawal: Bad for Japan, Bad for the U.S., Bad for the world

By Jack Spencer

The Heritage Foundation

Abstract: Due to the accidents at the Fukushima nuclear plant in March 2011, the Japanese government is re-evaluating its commitment to nuclear energy. Japan’s apprehension about nuclear power is understandable, but closing nuclear plants or rejecting future construction would create substantial—and unnecessary—economic hardship. Japan must identify and fix what went wrong technologically and operationally with the Fukushima reactors. This identification must lead to major reforms—drawing on lessons learned and international best practices—that create a transparent and independent regulatory regime. Such reforms will help to restore public confidence and allow Japan to continue to pursue nuclear energy—which will benefit not only Japan, but the United States and the rest of the world as well. Japanese withdrawal from nuclear power would have negative results for all.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2011/11/Japans-Nuclear-Withdrawal-Bad-for-Japan-Bad-for-the-US-Bad-for-the-World

Please visit The Heritage Foundation at http://www.heritage.org for more in depth reports from this highly acclaimed think tank