Ukraine and NATO Encouragement of Bombing Deeper into Russia (Possible Blowback)
Kanako Mita, Sawako Utsumi, and Lee Jay Walker
Modern Tokyo Times
The conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation — together with Russian-backed forces in the Donbas — continues with little indication of an imminent political settlement. Increasingly, the war has evolved into one of attrition, where industrial capacity, manpower, logistics, and endurance have become as decisive as battlefield maneuver. Although the pace of Russian advances has often been gradual and costly, Moscow continues to consolidate territorial gains while seeking to extend control across the entirety of the Donbas. Since the recapture of Sudzha in the Kursk region in 2025, the Kremlin has also placed greater emphasis on establishing a security buffer inside Ukraine’s Sumy region and other border areas adjacent to territories under Russian control, reflecting its broader strategic objective of pushing potential threats farther from the Russian frontier.
Yet an equally significant and increasingly dangerous dimension of the conflict is emerging. As Ukraine faces mounting pressure along the front lines, it has expanded the scale and depth of long-range drone operations and other strikes against targets inside the Russian Federation. These attacks increasingly focus on energy infrastructure, military logistics, industrial facilities, and other strategically important assets. Kyiv views such operations as a means of imposing costs on Russia beyond the battlefield, while its Western partners continue to provide varying degrees of military, intelligence, and technological assistance. The cumulative effect is to bring the war ever deeper into Russian territory.
This development raises the prospect of growing domestic pressure on President Vladimir Putin. Throughout the conflict, the Kremlin has sought to reassure the Russian public that the war remains under control despite its considerable human and economic costs. However, sustained attacks against energy infrastructure and other economically significant targets inevitably challenge that narrative. Should such strikes intensify, they may increase pressure from military circles, political elites, and sections of the wider population for a more forceful response, particularly if critical infrastructure is repeatedly disrupted.
Recent events elsewhere also illustrate how attacks on strategic infrastructure can influence political calculations. During the recent conflict involving Iran, Tehran rapidly demonstrated its willingness to strike energy facilities and military targets across the region, a dynamic that many analysts believe contributed to efforts by the United States to prevent a wider escalation. Whether one agrees with Iran’s actions or not, the episode underscored the strategic importance of energy infrastructure and its potential influence on decision-making during modern conflicts.
From Moscow’s perspective, sustained attacks on energy infrastructure and other key sectors could increasingly be interpreted as threats to Russia’s economic resilience and long-term security. Equally, from Ukraine’s standpoint, the conflict has always been existential, as it continues to resist Russian military operations. It is precisely because both sides perceive the stakes in existential terms that the danger of escalation remains acute. When each participant believes its national survival or strategic future is at risk, the threshold for taking greater military risks can gradually decline.
Earlier phases of the war witnessed attacks on infrastructure by both Ukraine and Russia, yet Ukraine’s ability to strike deep within Russian territory was comparatively limited. That situation has evolved significantly. Advances in drone technology, expanded production, and continued Western support have enabled Kyiv to sustain increasingly sophisticated long-range operations. At the same time, several European governments have signaled their intention to expand military assistance, including air defence systems, long-range capabilities, and industrial cooperation aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s ability to sustain pressure on Russian military and economic assets.
These developments inevitably heighten pressure on the Kremlin while reinforcing to the Russian public that the conflict is far from being contained. Instead of becoming more distant, the war is increasingly visible within Russia itself. Simultaneously, although Ukraine continues to face severe battlefield challenges, it appears determined to offset Russian advantages in manpower and conventional firepower through asymmetric methods, with drone warfare emerging as one of its most important strategic instruments.
The result is a conflict entering an increasingly volatile phase. If strikes against strategic infrastructure continue to expand in scale and frequency, the possibility of unintended escalation cannot be dismissed. One scenario frequently discussed by analysts is that Russia, if confronted with mounting internal pressure and perceiving direct Western involvement as increasingly decisive, could consider broader retaliatory measures against supply routes, logistical hubs, or other military-related facilities beyond Ukraine. While such an outcome remains speculative, the risk of miscalculation grows as the conflict deepens and each side seeks new methods of imposing costs on the other.
It is to be hoped that diplomacy can still provide a path toward de-escalation before the conflict reaches an even more dangerous stage. At present, however, the prevailing trajectory appears discouraging. Military support for Ukraine continues, Russia remains committed to achieving its strategic objectives, and both sides are investing heavily in technologies designed to expand the reach and effectiveness of long-range strikes. Unless meaningful negotiations emerge, the danger is that a war already defined by attrition could evolve into a broader confrontation with increasingly unpredictable regional — and potentially international —consequences.
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