Taiwan to Increase Military Defense Spending (China and Statecraft)
Noriko Watanabe, Kanako Mita, and Lee Jay Walker
Modern Tokyo Times
President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan has announced a special $40 billion defense budget dedicated to military arms purchases aimed at strengthening the island’s ability to respond to a worst-case scenario involving China. The plan includes developing an advanced air-defense system with high-level detection and interception capabilities to counter China’s missile forces—an initiative Lai has referred to as “Taiwan Dome.”
The expanded defense budget—encouraged by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump—will be allocated over eight years (2026–2033). This move follows Lai’s earlier commitment to increase Taiwan’s defense spending to 5% of GDP.
The leader of Taiwan said, “China’s threats to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region are escalating.”
He continued, “Recently, various types of military intrusions, maritime gray zones and disinformation campaigns have been occurring in Japan, the Philippines and around the Taiwan Strait, causing deep unease and distress to all parties in the region.”
America continues to press Taiwan to expand its military capabilities regardless of whether a Democrat or Republican occupies the White House. This bipartisan continuity underscores what many view as a deep contradiction—if not outright arrogance—in U.S. foreign policy.
Both recent American presidents have urged China to curb its economic support for the Russian Federation, particularly in the energy sector concening the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Yet the same United States simultaneously pursues strategies aimed at containing China, tightening military partnerships and arms-oriented cooperation with Taiwan.
AP News reports, “Currently, Taiwan has set an increase in its defense budget to 3.3% of its GDP for 2026, allocating $949.5 billion Taiwan dollars ($31.18 billion). U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded Taiwan raise its defense spending to as much as 10% of GDP, a proportion well above what the U.S. or any of its major allies spend.”
Last year, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China said, “The US keeps saying that territorial sovereignty must be respected, but on the Taiwan question, the US has been walking on the edge and pushing the envelope. The US has broken its own political commitments and has been selling sophisticated weapons to China’s Taiwan region. The US says there’s desire for peace to prevail, yet it has waged wars and stoked confrontation around the world. The US says it’s important to respect and uphold the international order, yet it has slapped massive unilateral illegal sanctions and put its domestic laws above international law. The US says competition must be fair, yet it has been cracking down on foreign companies by using all kinds of state apparatus and defying international trade rules.”
China and Taiwan have coexisted—and prospered through deep economic interdependence—for decades. Given this long record of practical coexistence, it is time for both sides to move beyond the gravitational pull of historical grievances. China, in particular, would benefit from allowing Taiwan greater space in the international community, reflecting the reality of their extensive economic and societal links.
At the same time, Taiwan cannot ignore China’s core strategic anxiety: America’s containment architecture, reinforced not only by Washington but also by members of the Quad and AUKUS. These alliances signal to Beijing that a tightening geopolitical vise is forming around it, which inevitably affects cross-strait calculations.
If Chinese political leaders wish to diminish the rationale behind AUKUS, the Quad, and broader anti-China containment policies, they should pursue a path of accommodation toward Taiwan rather than coercion. Continued threats against the island will only solidify the resolve of China’s rivals and serve the strategic interests of Washington and Tokyo, especially under their current leadership.
Likewise, political forces in Taiwan that champion hardline positions must recognize that provoking Beijing feeds the very dynamics they fear. A sustainable future depends on Taiwan’s willingness to engage China with realism and restraint, and on China’s willingness to respond with confidence rather than intimidation.
The alternative—a Northeast Asian replay of the Ukraine–Russia tragedy—is a scenario too catastrophic to contemplate. Preventing such an outcome demands courage, creativity, and compromise from both Beijing and Taipei. However, the current omens look negative.
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