Israel Distrustful of America and Iran Deal (Hamas and Hezbollah)
Kanako Mita, Sawako Utsumi, and Lee Jay Walker
Modern Tokyo Times
President Donald Trump has stipulated that a deal to end the conflict with Iran must now be finalized. Under the reported framework, the strategic Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to international shipping, while America would end its naval blockade. Yet from an Israeli perspective, the fundamental security concerns remain unchanged. The existential threats posed by Hamas and Hezbollah have not disappeared, and the absence of regime change in Tehran means that the same Iranian influence continues to shape events in Gaza and Lebanon.
Naturally, many politicians, military personnel, and ordinary citizens in Israel have cause for concern. Hezbollah remains a formidable menace through its military and political state-within-a-state in Lebanon, while Hamas is steadily reasserting its mechanisms of control in Gaza despite repeated declarations by the international community — including the Trump administration — about a new regional order.
The BBC reports: “More than three months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to bring about a more long-term end to hostilities.”
Consequently, many within Israel have voiced dismay at the direction of American policy. The security establishment increasingly views the Trump administration’s approach as contradictory, especially as Washington places growing pressure on Israel to limit the operational freedom of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) at a critical moment.
Opponents of the Iranian regime are equally likely to be disappointed. During waves of unrest late last year and earlier this year, thousands of protesters were reportedly killed. In recent months, further extrajudicial killings have reinforced the regime’s authoritarian credentials. If Tehran survives the conflict and is subsequently strengthened through new economic arrangements with America, the hopes of many Iranians seeking greater freedom may diminish further.
The Times of Israel reports: “US and Iranian officials said early Monday that they had agreed on a framework for an agreement to end the war, which is expected to halt the US blockade of Iranian ports, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin 60 days of talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. According to Iranian and Pakistani sources, the agreement also includes a ceasefire in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group backed by Iran.”
Irrespective of the language used by Trump and other senior American officials, many observers view the agreement as a significant climbdown. The original objectives were far more ambitious: eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme, ending Tehran’s support for terrorist proxies, degrading its ballistic missile arsenal, and generating sufficient internal pressure to threaten the survival of the regime itself.
Israel Katz, Israel’s Defence Minister, has made clear that the IDF will remain in southern Lebanon because of the continuing Hezbollah threat to northern Israel. He has also warned that Israel will strike Iran “with full force” should it come under attack.
Katz is adamant that Israel will not bow to outside pressure. He stated that “despite all the existing pressures and those that will still come,” Israel would not withdraw from areas where threats persist under current conditions.
He further declared: “the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza – indefinitely – to defend the border and Israeli communities against jihadist elements.”
Iran is steadily recovering from the shock generated by the American-Israeli military campaign as the Trump administration seeks a diplomatic exit from the crisis. The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, together with the deaths of senior military and intelligence figures, initially sent shockwaves throughout the Islamic Republic. Yet that period of uncertainty is receding, with Tehran appearing increasingly emboldened by what many perceive as inconsistent and hesitant signals from Washington.
Before Trump’s renewed emphasis on negotiations, the IDF and Mossad had exposed profound weaknesses within Iran’s security apparatus. Israel demonstrated a remarkable ability to penetrate hostile networks and conduct precise intelligence-driven operations against senior figures linked to Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran itself. These successes placed Tehran under unprecedented pressure. However, that momentum appears to have slowed as Washington pursues negotiations that have reportedly unsettled many within Israel.
Frustration is also mounting over Hezbollah’s continuing activities in Lebanon. A senior IDF official recently complained: “We need to do much more. Israeli sovereignty is being violated every day. The IDF is exercising significant restraint because we are operating under understandings with the United States and the Lebanese government. We cannot accept the current reality without the ability to respond.”
Across the Gulf, many governments remain uncertain about America’s strategic direction. While individual states hold differing perspectives, Iran’s willingness to target numerous locations throughout the Gulf has raised questions about whether the Trump administration is retreating from its original objectives.
Distrust between Washington and Tehran remains profound, while Trump’s shifting rhetoric continues to generate uncertainty. Accordingly, any comprehensive peace agreement could easily unravel if either side loses confidence in the process.
Other nations are also watching events closely.
The Guardian reports: “Iran’s stocks of enriched uranium need to be neutralized and placed under the supervision of the UN atomic agency,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday.
For Israel, unlike America, the threats posed by Hamas and Hezbollah cannot simply be set aside in pursuit of a broader diplomatic settlement. Unless Hezbollah’s state-within-a-state is dismantled in Lebanon, it is difficult to envisage strong Israeli support for any long-term agreement between Washington and Tehran.
Therefore, even if temporary arrangements are reached, the region is likely to remain fragile until the core issues are addressed: Iran’s support for terrorist proxies, the future of its nuclear programme, and the rights of the Iranian people, who continue to live under an authoritarian system that suppresses opposition with alarming ruthlessness.
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