Ukraine and its Incursion into Russia is Humiliating for the Kremlin
Kanako Mita and Michiyo Tanabe
Modern Tokyo Times
Incursions by the armed forces of Ukraine into the Russian Federation in the Kursk region are humiliating for the Kremlin. Accordingly, with fighting entering the sixth day, it highlights how ill-prepared the armed forces of the Russian Federation are concerning a surprise attack inside its territory.
In the last six months, the armed forces of the Russian Federation have been pushing back in areas they claim inside Ukraine. Hence, this incursion into the Russian Federation will lift the spirit of Ukraine – even if the incursion fails and leads to a severe counterattack into new parts of Ukraine.
RT News (Russian Federation) reports, “Ukraine launched a large-scale assault on the Kursk Region on Tuesday in what is the largest cross-border incursion into a Russian border region since the start of the conflict. Moscow has accused its neighbor of provocations and conducting indiscriminate strikes targeting civilians. Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, have said that the purpose of the incursion was to instill fear in the Russian population and gain a better position for possible talks with Moscow.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said the armed forces were pushing the conflict onto “the aggressor’s territory.”
Zelensky also said, “Ukraine is proving that it can indeed restore justice and ensure the necessary pressure on the aggressor.”
The armed forces entered the Kursk region and advanced 10km inside the Russian Federation with little resistance. Over 75,000 Russian civilians have been evacuated from the border region since the incursion.
The BBC reports, “This is the deepest raid into the country since Moscow began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.”
In response to the incursion, counterattacks are being prepared by the Russian Federation concerning Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk.
The Institute for the Study of War reports, “The Kremlin likely decided to declare a counterterrorism operation — as opposed to a state of war or martial law — to downplay the scale of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and prevent domestic panic or backlash — demonstrating the Kremlin’s reluctance to take more drastic measures to respond to the situation.“
AP News reports, “A ministry statement said the Russian military and border guards have blocked Ukrainian forces from pushing deeper into the region in southwestern Russia. It added that the army is attacking Ukrainian fighters trying to advance into the area from Ukraine’s Sumy region.”
Lee Jay Walker (Modern Tokyo Times analyst) says, “It is likely that the armed forces of the Russian Federation will push the Ukrainian troops back irrespective of the timeframe. However, it is embarrassing for the Kremlin because the armed forces in this region were ill-prepared. It also signifies a lack of intelligence gathering.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-10-2024
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